5. CURRENT CLIMATE SYSTEMS
Weak El Niño conditions continued over the equatorial Pacific Ocean with during August 2009 with significant warmer than average Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) across equatorial Pacific Ocean. Warmer than average Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) were also observed over western parts of the Indian Ocean and much of tropical Atlantic Ocean (Figure 6). Cooler than average SSTs to average SSTs were observed over equatorial Atlantic Ocean and central Indian Ocean.
Figure 6: Sea surface temperature anomalies for the period 30 August to 26 September 2009 (Anomalies de température de surface de la mer pour la période du 30 août au 26 septembre 2009 (Courtesy of NOAA)
6.0 CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR OCTOBER TO DECEMBER 2009
6.1 Expected conditions during October to December 2009
The observed oceanic and atmospheric conditions coupled with the most recent dynamical and statistical SST forecasts over the equatorial Pacific Ocean indicate that El Niño conditions are likely to continue over the next three months. The El Niño conditions coupled with the prevailing SST patterns over the Indian and Atlantic Oceans are likely to lead to enhanced rainfall during October to December 2009 over parts of the GHA sub-region.
The climate outlook for October to December 2009 indicates that much of Burundi; Rwanda; Uganda; northwestern and northern coast of Tanzania; western; coastal and eastern Kenya; southern Sudan; western and southeastern Ethiopia as well as southern and central Somalia are likely to experience above to near normal rainfall. Southern Tanzania, central and parts of northern Tanzania; parts of central and northern Kenya; northern Somalia; much of Ethiopia and central Sudan are likely to experience near to above normal rainfall. The rest of the sub-region is likely to remain generally dry (Fig. 7).
Figure 7: Climate Outlook for October to December 2009 (Aperçu du temps pour les mois d’octobre à decembre 2009))«top
