5. CLIMATE SYSTEMS IN JUNE 2008
During August 2008 warmer than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were observed over much of the tropical Atlantic Ocean, central Indian Ocean, as well as eastern Pacific Ocean while colder than SSTs were observed over the Arabian Sea, parts of western and eastern Indian Ocean as well as western tropical Pacific Ocean (Figure 6a). The Indian Ocean dipole mode remained positive during July 2008 (Figure 6b).
Figure 6a: Sea surface temperature anomalies for August 2008 (Anomalies de température de surface de la mer pour le mois d'août 2008) (Courtesy of NOAA)
Figure 6b: Evolution of Indian Ocean dipole mode during January to July 2008 (Evolution du mode dipole de l’Ocean Indien de janvier à juillet 2008)
6.1 The climate outlook forum
From 28 to 29 September 2008, the Twenty second Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 22) was convened in Nairobi, Kenya by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) in collaboration with the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and partners to formulate consensus climate outlook for the September to December 2008 rainfall season over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). The forum reviewed the state of the global climate system and its implications on the seasonal climate of the sub-region. Among the principal factors taken into account were the observed and predicted SSTs in the tropical Pacific Ocean and over much of the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Users from Agriculture and food security, disaster management, health, livestock, water resources and media among other sectors were active participants in the forum. The users formulated the potential implications of the consensus climate outlook for the September to December 2008 season and developed mitigation strategies for the respective countries and sectors.
6.2 Outlook for September to December 2008
September to December constitutes an important rainfall season over much of the Greater Horn of Africa sub-region. The rainfall outlook for each zone within this sub-region is given below.
Figure 7: Climate Outlook for September to December 2008 (Aperçu du temps pour les mois de septembre à decembre 2008)
Zone I: Climatology is indicated over northern Sudan.
Zone II: Increased likelihood of near normal to below-normal rainfall over northeastern Sudan; and much of Eritrea.
Zone III: Climatology is indicated over southern Eritrea and extreme northeastern Ethiopia.
Zone IV: Increased likelihood of near normal to above normal rainfall over central Sudan; as well as western and northern Ethiopia.
Zone V: increased likelihood of near to below normal rainfall over much of Djibouti; northern western and southern Somalia; eastern and northern Kenya; eastern and southern Ethiopia; southern Sudan; and northwestern Uganda.
Zone VI: Increased likelihood of near normal to above normal rainfall over central and northeastern Somalia.
Zone VII: Increased likelihood of near normal to above normal rainfall over much of Burundi; Rwanda; Uganda; western, central and southern Kenya as well as northern and western Tanzania.
Zone VIII: Increased likelihood of near to below normal rainfall over western Burundi.
Zone IX: Increased likelihood of near to below normal rainfall over southern and central Tanzania..«top
