TENDAY BULLETIN
IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC*)
10 DAY CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMARY AND IMPACTS FOR DEKAD 24 (21-31 AUGAUST 2009 AND OUTLOOK FOR DEKAD 26 (11 - 20 SEPTEMBER) 2009
THIS BULLETIN IS PRODUCED IN COLLABORATION WITH WMO AND THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES (NMHSs) IN THE GREATER HORN OF AFRICA (GHA) COUNTRIES
1.0 Highlights
-
Much of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) sub-region continued to experience dry conditions during dekad 24 (21 - 31 August) 2009 apart from Djibouti and northeastern Ethiopia that experienced wet conditions;
-
Drier than average conditions are expected to continue over much of the GHA sub-region apart from western Sudan that is likely to experience wet conditions;
-
Food insecurity; scarcity of water and pasture for livestock persisted over the eastern parts of the sub-region.
2.0 Introduction
This bulletin provides a summary of the observed climate conditions during dekad 24 (21-31 August) 2009 and the climate outlook for dekad 26 (11-20 September) 2009 over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) sub-region. The impacts of the observed climate conditions are also highlighted.
3.0 Observed rainfall situation during dekad 24 (21 - 31 August 2009)
The spatial patterns of the observed rainfall and the rainfall stress severity index during dekad 24 (21-31 August) 2009 over the GHA sub-region are shown in figures 1 and 2 respectively.
3.1 Northern sector
Much of the central parts of the northern sector received more than 30mm of rainfall during dekad 24 (21 -31 August) 2009 resulting to near normal to wet conditions (Figure 2). However, the northern and eastern parts of the sector received rainfall below 10mm resulting in generally dry conditions.
3.2 Equatorial Sector
Much of the sector received less than 10mm of rainfall (Figure 1) resulting in generally dry conditions. However, the western parts of the sector received rainfall ranging from 30mm to 100mm resulting in near normal to wet conditions (Figure 2).
3.3 Southern sectors
Most of this sector received less than 10 mm of rainfall during dekad 24 (21 - 31 August) 2009 (Figure 1) resulting in generally dry conditions (Figure 2) with the exception of the southernmost parts of the sector that received more than 50mm of rainfall resulting in near normal conditions.
Figure 1: Spatial distribution of observed rainfall during dekad 24 (21 - 31 August) 2009
Figure 2: Rainfall Stress Severity Index for Dekad 24(21 - 31 August) 2009
4.0 Assessment of current rainfall performance
The cumulative dekadal rainfall is used to evaluate water stress over various parts of the GHA sub-region. The dekadal rainfall totals cumulated since January 2009 for selected stations indicate rainfall deficits over the northern (Figures 3a and 3b) and equatorial (Figure 3c) sectors
Figure 3 (a): Cumulative rainfall series for selected stations
Figure 3 (b): Cumulative rainfall series for selected stations
Figure 3 (c): Cumulative rainfall series for selected stations
5.0 Climate outlook
The climate outlook for dekad 26 (11 – 20 September) 2009 indicates that much of western Sudan is likely to experience near to above normal rainfall. Much of Burundi; Rwanda; Uganda; northwestern and northern coast of Tanzania; coastal and western Kenya; southern coast of Somalia; southern Djibouti; central Eritrea; northern and western Ethiopia as well as eastern Sudan are expected to receive near normal to below normal rainfall. The rest of the GHA sub-region is likely to remain generally dry (Figure 4).
Figure 4: Climate outlook for dekad 26 (11 - 20 September) 2009
6.0 Impacts expected on vegetation and Socio-economic sectors
The socio-economic impacts associated with the vegetation conditions and observed rainfall conditions are highlighted below:
6.1 Vegetation condition indicators
The satellite imagery for the third dekad (21-31) of August 2009 indicate improved vegetation cover over central and southern Sudan; much of Ethiopia and southern parts of Somalia. However, parts of the southern sector show reduced vegetation conditions (Fig.5).
Figure 5: Vegetation anomalies (third Dekad of August 2009 minus the previous dakad)
For more information, suggestions or comments, contact:
The Director
IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE
P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA
Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60
Fax 254 20 3878343
Telex 22208
E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org
1.0 Highlights
-
Much of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) sub-region continued to experience dry conditions during dekad 24 (21 - 31 August) 2009 apart from Djibouti and northeastern Ethiopia that experienced wet conditions;
-
Drier than average conditions are expected to continue over much of the GHA sub-region apart from western Sudan that is likely to experience wet conditions;
-
Food insecurity; scarcity of water and pasture for livestock persisted over the eastern parts of the sub-region.
2.0 Introduction
This bulletin provides a summary of the observed climate conditions during dekad 24 (21-31 August) 2009 and the climate outlook for dekad 26 (11-20 September) 2009 over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) sub-region. The impacts of the observed climate conditions are also highlighted.
3.0 Observed rainfall situation during dekad 24 (21 - 31 August 2009)
The spatial patterns of the observed rainfall and the rainfall stress severity index during dekad 24 (21-31 August) 2009 over the GHA sub-region are shown in figures 1 and 2 respectively.
3.1 Northern sector
Much of the central parts of the northern sector received more than 30mm of rainfall during dekad 24 (21 -31 August) 2009 resulting to near normal to wet conditions (Figure 2). However, the northern and eastern parts of the sector received rainfall below 10mm resulting in generally dry conditions.
3.2 Equatorial Sector
Much of the sector received less than 10mm of rainfall (Figure 1) resulting in generally dry conditions. However, the western parts of the sector received rainfall ranging from 30mm to 100mm resulting in near normal to wet conditions (Figure 2).
3.3 Southern sectors
Most of this sector received less than 10 mm of rainfall during dekad 24 (21 - 31 August) 2009 (Figure 1) resulting in generally dry conditions (Figure 2) with the exception of the southernmost parts of the sector that received more than 50mm of rainfall resulting in near normal conditions.
Figure 1: Spatial distribution of observed rainfall during dekad 24 (21 - 31 August) 2009
Figure 2: Rainfall Stress Severity Index for Dekad 24(21 - 31 August) 2009
4.0 Assessment of current rainfall performance
The cumulative dekadal rainfall is used to evaluate water stress over various parts of the GHA sub-region. The dekadal rainfall totals cumulated since January 2009 for selected stations indicate rainfall deficits over the northern (Figures 3a and 3b) and equatorial (Figure 3c) sectors
Figure 3 (a): Cumulative rainfall series for selected stations
Figure 3 (b): Cumulative rainfall series for selected stations
Figure 3 (c): Cumulative rainfall series for selected stations
5.0 Climate outlook
The climate outlook for dekad 26 (11 – 20 September) 2009 indicates that much of western Sudan is likely to experience near to above normal rainfall. Much of Burundi; Rwanda; Uganda; northwestern and northern coast of Tanzania; coastal and western Kenya; southern coast of Somalia; southern Djibouti; central Eritrea; northern and western Ethiopia as well as eastern Sudan are expected to receive near normal to below normal rainfall. The rest of the GHA sub-region is likely to remain generally dry (Figure 4).
Figure 4: Climate outlook for dekad 26 (11 - 20 September) 2009
6.0 Impacts expected on vegetation and Socio-economic sectors
The socio-economic impacts associated with the vegetation conditions and observed rainfall conditions are highlighted below:
6.1 Vegetation condition indicators
The satellite imagery for the third dekad (21-31) of August 2009 indicate improved vegetation cover over central and southern Sudan; much of Ethiopia and southern parts of Somalia. However, parts of the southern sector show reduced vegetation conditions (Fig.5).
Figure 5: Vegetation anomalies (third Dekad of August 2009 minus the previous dakad)
For more information, suggestions or comments, contact:
The Director
IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE
P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA
Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60
Fax 254 20 3878343
Telex 22208
E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org
1.0 Highlights
-
Much of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) sub-region continued to experience dry conditions during dekad 24 (21 - 31 August) 2009 apart from Djibouti and northeastern Ethiopia that experienced wet conditions;
-
Drier than average conditions are expected to continue over much of the GHA sub-region apart from western Sudan that is likely to experience wet conditions;
-
Food insecurity; scarcity of water and pasture for livestock persisted over the eastern parts of the sub-region.
2.0 Introduction
This bulletin provides a summary of the observed climate conditions during dekad 24 (21-31 August) 2009 and the climate outlook for dekad 26 (11-20 September) 2009 over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) sub-region. The impacts of the observed climate conditions are also highlighted.
3.0 Observed rainfall situation during dekad 24 (21 - 31 August 2009)
The spatial patterns of the observed rainfall and the rainfall stress severity index during dekad 24 (21-31 August) 2009 over the GHA sub-region are shown in figures 1 and 2 respectively.
3.1 Northern sector
Much of the central parts of the northern sector received more than 30mm of rainfall during dekad 24 (21 -31 August) 2009 resulting to near normal to wet conditions (Figure 2). However, the northern and eastern parts of the sector received rainfall below 10mm resulting in generally dry conditions.
3.2 Equatorial Sector
Much of the sector received less than 10mm of rainfall (Figure 1) resulting in generally dry conditions. However, the western parts of the sector received rainfall ranging from 30mm to 100mm resulting in near normal to wet conditions (Figure 2).
3.3 Southern sectors
Most of this sector received less than 10 mm of rainfall during dekad 24 (21 - 31 August) 2009 (Figure 1) resulting in generally dry conditions (Figure 2) with the exception of the southernmost parts of the sector that received more than 50mm of rainfall resulting in near normal conditions.
Figure 1: Spatial distribution of observed rainfall during dekad 24 (21 - 31 August) 2009
Figure 2: Rainfall Stress Severity Index for Dekad 24(21 - 31 August) 2009
4.0 Assessment of current rainfall performance
The cumulative dekadal rainfall is used to evaluate water stress over various parts of the GHA sub-region. The dekadal rainfall totals cumulated since January 2009 for selected stations indicate rainfall deficits over the northern (Figures 3a and 3b) and equatorial (Figure 3c) sectors
Figure 3 (a): Cumulative rainfall series for selected stations
Figure 3 (b): Cumulative rainfall series for selected stations
Figure 3 (c): Cumulative rainfall series for selected stations
5.0 Climate outlook
The climate outlook for dekad 26 (11 – 20 September) 2009 indicates that much of western Sudan is likely to experience near to above normal rainfall. Much of Burundi; Rwanda; Uganda; northwestern and northern coast of Tanzania; coastal and western Kenya; southern coast of Somalia; southern Djibouti; central Eritrea; northern and western Ethiopia as well as eastern Sudan are expected to receive near normal to below normal rainfall. The rest of the GHA sub-region is likely to remain generally dry (Figure 4).
Figure 4: Climate outlook for dekad 26 (11 - 20 September) 2009
6.0 Impacts expected on vegetation and Socio-economic sectors
The socio-economic impacts associated with the vegetation conditions and observed rainfall conditions are highlighted below:
6.1 Vegetation condition indicators
The satellite imagery for the third dekad (21-31) of August 2009 indicate improved vegetation cover over central and southern Sudan; much of Ethiopia and southern parts of Somalia. However, parts of the southern sector show reduced vegetation conditions (Fig.5).
Figure 5: Vegetation anomalies (third Dekad of August 2009 minus the previous dakad)
For more information, suggestions or comments, contact:
The Director
IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE
P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA
Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60
Fax 254 20 3878343
Telex 22208
E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org
-
Much of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) sub-region continued to experience dry conditions during dekad 24 (21 - 31 August) 2009 apart from Djibouti and northeastern Ethiopia that experienced wet conditions;
-
Drier than average conditions are expected to continue over much of the GHA sub-region apart from western Sudan that is likely to experience wet conditions;
-
Food insecurity; scarcity of water and pasture for livestock persisted over the eastern parts of the sub-region.
2.0 Introduction
This bulletin provides a summary of the observed climate conditions during dekad 24 (21-31 August) 2009 and the climate outlook for dekad 26 (11-20 September) 2009 over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) sub-region. The impacts of the observed climate conditions are also highlighted.
3.0 Observed rainfall situation during dekad 24 (21 - 31 August 2009)
The spatial patterns of the observed rainfall and the rainfall stress severity index during dekad 24 (21-31 August) 2009 over the GHA sub-region are shown in figures 1 and 2 respectively.
3.1 Northern sector
Much of the central parts of the northern sector received more than 30mm of rainfall during dekad 24 (21 -31 August) 2009 resulting to near normal to wet conditions (Figure 2). However, the northern and eastern parts of the sector received rainfall below 10mm resulting in generally dry conditions.
3.2 Equatorial Sector
Much of the sector received less than 10mm of rainfall (Figure 1) resulting in generally dry conditions. However, the western parts of the sector received rainfall ranging from 30mm to 100mm resulting in near normal to wet conditions (Figure 2).
3.3 Southern sectors
Most of this sector received less than 10 mm of rainfall during dekad 24 (21 - 31 August) 2009 (Figure 1) resulting in generally dry conditions (Figure 2) with the exception of the southernmost parts of the sector that received more than 50mm of rainfall resulting in near normal conditions.
Figure 1: Spatial distribution of observed rainfall during dekad 24 (21 - 31 August) 2009
Figure 2: Rainfall Stress Severity Index for Dekad 24(21 - 31 August) 2009
4.0 Assessment of current rainfall performance
The cumulative dekadal rainfall is used to evaluate water stress over various parts of the GHA sub-region. The dekadal rainfall totals cumulated since January 2009 for selected stations indicate rainfall deficits over the northern (Figures 3a and 3b) and equatorial (Figure 3c) sectors
Figure 3 (a): Cumulative rainfall series for selected stations
Figure 3 (b): Cumulative rainfall series for selected stations
Figure 3 (c): Cumulative rainfall series for selected stations
5.0 Climate outlook
The climate outlook for dekad 26 (11 – 20 September) 2009 indicates that much of western Sudan is likely to experience near to above normal rainfall. Much of Burundi; Rwanda; Uganda; northwestern and northern coast of Tanzania; coastal and western Kenya; southern coast of Somalia; southern Djibouti; central Eritrea; northern and western Ethiopia as well as eastern Sudan are expected to receive near normal to below normal rainfall. The rest of the GHA sub-region is likely to remain generally dry (Figure 4).
Figure 4: Climate outlook for dekad 26 (11 - 20 September) 2009
6.0 Impacts expected on vegetation and Socio-economic sectors
The socio-economic impacts associated with the vegetation conditions and observed rainfall conditions are highlighted below:
6.1 Vegetation condition indicators
The satellite imagery for the third dekad (21-31) of August 2009 indicate improved vegetation cover over central and southern Sudan; much of Ethiopia and southern parts of Somalia. However, parts of the southern sector show reduced vegetation conditions (Fig.5).
Figure 5: Vegetation anomalies (third Dekad of August 2009 minus the previous dakad)
The Director
IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE
P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA
Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60
Fax 254 20 3878343
Telex 22208
E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org