Climate Change

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Projected Rainfall Scenarios:

The analysis of projected annual and seasonal rainfal scearios is based on the CORDEX-Africa simulation spanning the period 1951-2100. To minimize the uncertainity of a multi-model mean (MMM) for Rossby Center Regional Atmospheric Model (RCA) downscalled eight (8) GCMSx has been used.
Projected rainfall changes across different future periods (2021-2050 & 2061-2090) relative to the baseline historical period (1961-1990) have been analyzed on annual and seasonal timescales. The analysis has demonstrated that, based on particular climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 & RCP 8.5), rainfall changes (increase and decrease) are likely in future. Some parts of the region might get slightly wetter and others may get drier. Higher rainfall changes (%) are likely during the period 2061-2090 compared to 2021-2050 in both scenarios with drastic changes in rainfall associated with RCP 8.5 over most GHA locations. Anticipated future rainfall changes will have implications on; availability of clean water and energy, crops yields, livestock, fisheries, and other species distribution (and reproduction), epidemics of water and vector borne disease (malaria, cholera, rift valley fever, etc) among others. This requires for urgent climate change action (mitigation and adaptation actions) by member states in support and fulfillment of the Paris Agreement.

Projected Temperature Scenarios:

The analysis of projected annual and seasonal temperature scenarios is based on the CORDEX-Africa simulation spanning the period 1951-2100. To minimize the uncertainity of a multi-model mean (MMM) for Rossby Center Regional Atmospheric Model (RCA) downscaled eight (8) GCMSs has been used.
Studies show that projected temperature changes are consistent and according to our results, the future is expected to be warmer than the historical and current period. The magnitude of the future temperature changes are more pronounced in the non-mitigated climate change scenario (RCP 8.5) compared to the relatively mitigated scenario (RCP 4.5) across most location. The expected temperature increase will affect among other things; availability of clean water and energy, crops yields, livestock, fisheries, and other species distribution (and reproduction), epidemics of water and vector borne disease (malaria, cholera, rift valley fever, etc) among others. This requires for urgent climate change action (mitigation and adaptation actions) by member states in support and fulfillment of the Paris Agreement.

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