arrHitInfo=new Array("“sustainable,31,2","00100,1,1,4,1,5,1,6,1,7,1,8,1,10,1,11,1,12,1,13,1,35,1,96,1,97,1,14,1,15,1,16,1,17,1,18,1,23,2,24,1,25,1,26,1,30,1,28,1,53,1,54,1,55,1,56,1,58,1,92,1,93,1,94,1,59,1,60,1,61,1,62,1,95,1,98,1,99,1,100,1,101,1,103,1,104,1,106,1,107,1,119,1,57,1,105,1","04,9,4","069,54,1,58,1","08,9,4","10,13,1,56,2,59,4,119,7,57,1","1000,17,1,18,1","100e,57,2","100mm,59,1,103,2,104,2,119,1","10304,1,1,4,1,5,1,6,1,7,1,8,1,10,1,11,1,12,1,13,1,35,1,96,1,97,1,14,1,15,1,16,1,17,1,18,1,23,2,24,1,25,1,26,1,30,1,28,1,53,1,54,1,55,1,56,1,58,1,92,1,93,1,94,1,59,1,60,1,61,1,62,1,95,1,98,1,99,1,100,1,101,1,103,1,104,1,106,1,107,1,119,1,57,1,105,1","1090,23,1","10day,13,2","10days,13,1","10mm,119,3","10th,1,1","11,9,4,23,2,24,1,62,1,119,7","1181255,23,1","12,55,1","120,57,1","125,94,1,59,3,95,2","12th,57,1","13,55,1,60,1","14,24,2,55,1","142e,57,1","15,24,1,54,1,58,1","1500gmt,57,1","150mm,103,2,104,2","158,54,2,58,2","16,24,1","175,94,1,59,3","18,24,2","181822,23,1","185522,23,1","1974,54,2,58,2","1989,1,1","1998,1,1","20,1,4,4,4,5,4,6,4,7,4,8,4,10,4,11,4,12,4,13,4,35,5,96,4,97,4,14,4,15,4,16,4,17,4,18,4,23,8,24,4,25,4,26,4,30,4,28,4,31,1,53,4,54,5,55,4,56,4,58,5,92,4,93,4,94,4,59,4,60,4,61,4,62,4,95,4,98,4,99,4,100,4,101,4,103,4,104,4,106,4,107,4,119,11,57,4,105,4","200,54,1,58,1,57,1","2000,1,2,24,2","2001,24,2","2002,24,2","2003,1,2,24,1","2004,24,3,26,5,56,1,62,1,102,2,57,2","2005,1,2,4,2,5,2,6,2,7,3,8,2,9,5,10,2,11,2,12,3,13,4,35,10,96,5,97,6,14,3,15,2,16,2,17,2,18,2,23,2,24,2,25,2,26,2,30,6,28,6,31,9,53,2,54,3,55,6,56,3,58,3,92,8,93,2,94,6,59,13,60,4,61,3,62,9,95,6,98,5,99,18,100,19,101,9,102,2,103,10,104,10,106,2,107,2,119,15,57,5,105,11","2006,9,1","2007,9,1","2008,9,1","2009,9,1","2010,7,1,9,1,12,1,13,2","204,23,1","206,54,1,58,1","2085,23,1","21,24,1,119,1","21474,23,1","21st,57,1","22,54,1,58,1","22208,1,1,4,1,5,1,6,1,7,1,8,1,10,1,11,1,12,1,13,1,35,1,96,1,97,1,14,1,15,1,16,1,17,1,18,1,23,2,24,1,25,1,26,1,30,1,28,1,53,1,54,1,55,1,56,1,58,1,92,1,93,1,94,1,59,1,60,1,61,1,62,1,95,1,98,1,99,1,100,1,101,1,103,1,104,1,106,1,107,1,119,1,57,1,105,1","22699,23,1","23,24,2,26,2","23088,23,1","233559,23,1","24,1,1,13,1","249,23,2","25,24,1,26,1,28,1,30,1,54,1,58,1,94,2,59,2,95,1,98,1","250,23,2","251,23,2","251797,23,1","251798,23,1","252,23,1","253,23,2","254,1,3,4,3,5,3,6,3,7,3,8,3,10,3,11,3,12,3,13,3,35,3,96,3,97,3,14,3,15,3,16,3,17,3,18,3,24,3,25,3,26,3,28,3,30,3,53,3,54,3,55,3,56,3,58,3,92,3,93,3,94,3,59,3,60,3,61,3,62,3,95,3,98,3,99,3,100,3,101,3,103,3,104,3,106,3,107,3,119,3,23,7,57,3,105,3","255,23,2","256,23,2","256166,23,1","257,23,2","26,24,3,26,2,57,1","2625,23,2","27,24,2","28,24,1,57,1","291,23,2","29th,57,1","2a,101,1","2b,101,1","2nd,62,1","30,24,1,59,1,119,4,57,1","30259,23,1","3056,23,1","30mm,119,2","30mml,119,1","31,9,4,35,2,31,2","32,119,10","324,105,1","32643,23,1","33,119,1","331,23,1","34,119,3","340500,23,1","340723,23,1","35,35,1,26,1,28,1,30,1,31,1","37,23,1","3876957,1,1,4,1,5,1,6,1,7,1,8,1,10,1,11,1,12,1,13,1,35,1,96,1,97,1,14,1,15,1,16,1,17,1,18,1,24,1,25,1,26,1,28,1,30,1,53,1,54,1,55,1,56,1,58,1,92,1,93,1,94,1,59,1,60,1,61,1,62,1,95,1,98,1,99,1,100,1,101,1,103,1,104,1,106,1,107,1,119,1,23,1,57,1,105,1","3878340,1,1,4,1,5,1,6,1,7,1,8,1,10,1,11,1,12,1,13,1,35,1,96,1,97,1,14,1,15,1,16,1,17,1,18,1,24,1,25,1,26,1,28,1,30,1,53,1,54,1,55,1,56,1,58,1,92,1,93,1,94,1,59,1,60,1,61,1,62,1,95,1,98,1,99,1,100,1,101,1,103,1,104,1,106,1,107,1,119,1,23,2,57,1,105,1","3878343,1,1,4,1,5,1,6,1,7,1,8,1,10,1,11,1,12,1,13,1,35,1,96,1,97,1,14,1,15,1,16,1,17,1,18,1,24,1,25,1,26,1,28,1,30,1,53,1,54,1,55,1,56,1,58,1,92,1,93,1,94,1,59,1,60,1,61,1,62,1,95,1,98,1,99,1,100,1,101,1,103,1,104,1,106,1,107,1,119,1,23,2,57,1,105,1","3rd,57,1","40,26,1,28,1,30,1,23,2","41,23,2","41442,23,1","45,35,1,31,1","47,9,4,54,1,58,1","4th,62,1,57,1","50,103,2","50mm,103,2,104,4,119,1","51,23,2","512299,23,1","517066,23,1","567880,23,1","567888,23,1","574,23,1","5889,23,1","60,1,1,4,1,5,1,6,1,7,1,8,1,10,1,11,1,12,1,13,1,35,1,96,1,97,1,14,1,15,1,16,1,17,1,18,1,24,1,25,1,26,1,28,1,30,1,53,1,54,1,55,1,56,1,58,1,92,1,93,1,94,1,59,1,60,1,61,1,62,1,95,1,98,1,99,1,100,1,101,1,103,1,104,1,106,1,107,1,119,1,23,1,57,2,105,1","61163,23,1","6a,96,2,59,2","6b,97,1,59,2","6c,59,2","6d,59,2","6th,57,1","7025,23,1","720,23,1","75,59,3,95,1,98,1","771693,23,1","778836,23,1","7a,59,1,102,1,105,1","7b,59,1,102,1,105,1","7c,59,1","7th,54,1,58,1","82609,23,1","842370,23,1","86554,23,1","8a,61,2","8b,61,1","8c,61,1","8th,1,1","9a,61,1","9b,61,1","9c,61,2","ababa,23,1","able,8,1,9,2","abm,1,1,4,1,5,1,6,1,35,1,24,1,25,1,26,1,28,1,30,1,53,1,106,1,107,1,119,1,23,1","absorb,1,1,11,1","abundance,11,1","abundant,8,1,9,1","accepted,17,1,18,1","according,54,1,58,1","account,35,2,26,2,28,2,30,2,31,2","accumulated,35,1,26,1,31,1","accurate,11,1","achieve,11,1,14,1","achievements,1,2","acirc,104,3","acmad,1,1,4,1,5,1,6,1,35,1,24,1,25,1,26,1,28,1,30,1,53,1,106,1,107,1,119,1,23,1","acquire,13,1","acquired,1,1,53,1","acquisition,1,1,13,1","across,54,1,58,1,57,1","active,35,1,26,1,28,1,30,1,31,1","activit,104,1","activities,1,5,4,13,5,2,6,2,7,3,8,4,9,4,10,2,11,2,12,3,13,4,35,2,96,2,97,2,14,3,15,6,16,5,17,2,18,2,24,2,25,2,26,2,28,2,30,2,53,3,54,4,55,4,56,4,58,4,92,2,93,2,94,2,59,5,60,4,61,4,62,6,95,2,98,2,99,2,100,2,101,2,103,3,104,2,106,2,107,2,119,2,23,2,57,13,105,2","actualites,99,1,100,1","adapt,16,1","adaptation,6,1","adaptive,6,1","addis,23,1","addition,17,1,18,1","additional,35,2,26,2,28,2,30,2,31,3","address,6,1,13,1,23,1","addressing,9,8,12,1,17,1,18,1","adeline,57,2","administration,26,1,54,1,58,1","adoption,13,3","advance,6,1,16,1","advanced,1,2,53,1,60,1,105,1","advantage,1,1,7,1","advised,35,1,26,1,28,1,30,1,31,1","advisory,16,1","aeroport,23,1","affect,35,1,26,2,28,1,30,1,31,1,57,1","affects,16,1","africa,1,5,7,1,10,1,35,8,16,1,26,6,28,8,30,8,31,8,53,2,60,1,62,1,119,1,57,1","africa”,31,2","african,1,1","against,16,1","agency,35,3,26,3,28,3,30,3,31,6,23,4","agrave,95,1,99,8,100,8,102,1,104,9","agricultural,1,1,6,2,8,1,9,1,53,1","agriculture,1,1,5,3,6,20,7,2,8,2,10,2,11,2,12,3,13,2,35,1,14,2,15,2,16,2,17,2,18,2,26,1,31,1,92,2","agro,6,1,16,1,119,1","agromet,96,1,97,1,92,10,93,1,94,1,95,1,98,2,99,2,100,2,101,2,103,2,104,2,106,2,107,2,105,2","agrometeorological,92,1","aid,92,2,103,1","aide,104,1","aimed,8,1,9,2","air,1,2,53,1","algal,11,1","alimentaire,99,1,100,1,104,1","allant,95,1,104,1","allows,35,1,14,1,26,1,28,1,30,1,31,1","aloft,57,1","alongside,35,1,31,1","alors,104,1","alternative,8,2,9,2","alternatives,16,1","alters,11,1","among,1,1,8,2,9,2,10,2,12,1,13,3,35,2,16,2,26,2,28,2,30,2,31,2,53,1","amount,59,1","amounts,35,3,26,3,28,3,30,3,31,3,59,9,94,1,95,1,101,1,103,3,119,4","amp,1,2,4,4,5,15,6,9,7,9,8,9,10,9,11,14,12,9,13,10,35,1,14,9,15,9,16,9,17,9,18,9,24,1,25,1,26,1,28,1,30,1,53,3,54,2,55,2,56,2,58,2,93,1,59,3,60,2,61,2,62,2,106,1,107,1,119,1,23,2,57,6","ample,119,1","analogue,55,2","analysis,1,1,6,1,9,1,10,1,11,1,13,1,14,1,55,2","animal,6,1","animals,10,1","aniques,102,1","ann,100,1,99,1","annual,35,1,26,1,28,1,30,1,31,1","anomalies,1,5,35,1,96,4,97,3,26,1,28,2,30,2,31,1,53,5,59,3,60,2,61,1,62,2,94,2,95,4,101,2,102,4,119,1,105,1","anomally,93,4","anomaly,96,8,97,8,92,2,93,7,59,2,94,17,95,7,98,2,100,2,101,3,103,2,104,2,106,2,107,2,99,2,105,3","another,8,1,9,1,54,1,58,1","anticip,104,1","anticipated,92,1","anticyclone,119,1","anticyclones,119,1","anytime,54,1,58,1","ao,95,1","apart,105,1","aper,100,2,104,1,99,2,105,1","appeared,54,1,58,1","application,1,2,6,2,8,1,9,9,10,1,11,1,12,1,13,1,15,2,16,1,17,2,18,2,28,1,30,1","applications,1,8,4,3,5,13,6,8,7,8,8,8,9,1,10,8,11,8,12,8,13,10,35,6,96,3,97,3,14,8,15,9,16,10,17,9,18,9,24,3,25,3,26,6,28,6,30,6,31,5,53,3,54,3,55,3,56,3,58,3,92,3,93,3,59,3,60,3,61,3,62,3,94,3,95,3,98,3,100,4,101,3,103,3,104,3,106,3,107,3,119,3,2,4,23,4,57,3,99,3,105,3","applied,1,1,15,3","apply,1,1","approaches,13,2","appropriate,6,1,14,2,16,1","approximately,57,1","april,54,1,55,1,56,1,58,1,59,2,60,1,61,1,57,9","aquatic,11,11","arabian,55,1,119,1,57,1,105,1","archive,1,1","archives,15,1","archiving,1,1,15,1","area,1,1,15,2,16,1,101,1,119,2,57,3","areas,6,4,10,2,11,1,12,1,35,6,14,2,16,1,26,5,28,3,30,3,31,6,55,1,56,1,92,2,59,8,61,1,62,3,94,1,95,1,103,3,119,3,57,3","arid,6,4,35,2,26,2,31,2","around,35,1,26,1,28,1,30,1,31,1","array,13,1","asmara,23,1","aspects,7,1,104,1","assess,12,1,13,2","assessed,1,1,35,1,26,1,28,1,30,1,31,1,53,1","assessment,1,2,7,1,8,4,9,8,14,4,17,1,18,1,53,1,54,4,55,4,56,4,58,4,59,10,60,4,61,13,62,4,119,3,57,4","assessments,7,1","assist,13,1","assistance,35,1,31,2","assisting,15,1","associ,104,2","associated,1,2,8,1,9,1,10,1,12,1,13,1,16,3,26,1,53,1,54,2,55,3,56,2,58,2,92,3,59,2,60,2,61,3,62,2,100,1,103,1,119,4,57,8,99,1","atlantic,35,3,26,3,28,4,30,4,31,3,105,4","atlas,9,2","atmosphere,35,1,26,1,28,1,30,1,31,1","atmospheric,26,1,54,1,58,1,57,2,105,1","attention,8,1,9,1","attribution,1,1","au,100,1,104,5,99,1","aug,24,5","august,35,2,26,2,31,2,59,1,95,3","aurait,100,1,99,1","auspices,1,2","aussi,100,1,104,2,99,1","austral,104,3","australe,104,2","australes,104,4","australian,57,1","authority,35,1,26,1,28,1,30,1,31,2,23,4","autonomous,1,1","aux,104,1","availability,7,1,8,1,9,1,12,1,17,1,18,1,92,2,103,1,119,1","available,14,1,17,1,18,1,101,1","average,96,3,97,2,28,2,30,2,59,8,60,1,94,3,95,1","averages,35,1,26,1,28,1,30,1,31,1","aviamet,23,1","aviation,23,3","avoisinant,104,1","awareness,1,1,6,1,7,2,8,1,9,2,10,2,11,1,12,2,16,1,17,1,18,1","background,1,8,4,2,5,2,6,2,7,2,8,2,10,2,11,2,12,2,13,2,35,2,96,2,97,2,14,2,15,2,16,2,17,2,18,2,24,2,25,2,26,2,28,2,30,2,53,2,54,2,55,2,56,2,58,2,92,2,93,2,59,2,60,2,61,2,62,2,94,2,95,2,98,2,100,2,101,2,103,2,104,2,106,2,107,2,119,2,23,2,57,2,99,2,105,2","backwards,7,1","bands,57,2","bank,1,1","base,1,2,7,1","based,1,1,6,1,8,2,9,3,13,1,35,1,14,1,16,3,17,1,18,1,31,1,55,1,59,1","basic,1,1,13,1,62,1","basin,35,1,31,1,57,3","basins,1,1,9,1,17,1,18,1,53,1,102,1,57,4","basis,57,1","bassins,102,1","bay,57,1","beaches,11,1","because,11,2,54,1,58,1","beginning,26,1","bekuretsion,23,1","benchmark,17,1,18,1","bengal,57,1","besoin,104,1","better,1,1,14,3,15,1","between,1,3,6,1,8,2,9,3,10,1,11,1,12,1,13,1,35,1,14,1,16,1,17,1,18,1,26,2,28,1,30,1,31,1,59,4,94,1,95,1,119,4,57,2","bien,100,1,104,2,99,1","biennial,13,1","bilan,100,1,99,1","biodiversity,11,1","biogas,8,1,9,1","biohazards,11,1","biomass,8,3,9,4","blocks,54,1,58,1","blooms,11,1","bmrc,13,1","bodies,7,1","bonne,104,1","borne,10,3","both,1,2,8,1,9,1,12,1,53,1,59,1","bottom,35,1,26,1,28,1,30,1,31,1","boundaries,35,1,26,1,28,1,30,1,31,1","boundary,13,1","box,1,1,4,1,5,1,6,1,7,1,8,1,10,1,11,1,12,1,13,1,35,1,96,1,97,1,14,1,15,1,16,1,17,1,18,1,24,1,25,1,26,1,28,1,30,1,53,1,54,1,55,1,56,1,58,1,92,1,93,1,59,1,60,1,61,1,62,1,94,1,95,1,98,1,100,1,101,1,103,1,104,1,106,1,107,1,119,1,23,8,57,1,99,1,105,1","break,11,1","breakages,8,1,9,1","broad,1,1","build,6,1","building,1,4,7,1,8,1,9,2,10,1,13,2,14,1,15,2,17,1,18,1","buildings,54,1,58,1","bujumbura,23,1","bulletin,13,1,96,5,97,5,53,4,54,1,55,1,56,1,58,1,92,5,93,5,59,1,60,1,61,1,62,2,94,5,95,5,98,5,100,9,101,5,103,6,104,6,106,5,107,5,119,7,57,1,99,8,105,5","bulletins,13,1,15,1","bureau,57,1","burning,9,1,8,1","burundi,1,1,4,1,5,1,6,1,35,4,24,1,25,1,26,6,28,5,30,5,31,4,53,1,92,1,62,1,103,1,104,1,106,1,107,1,119,2,23,5,105,1","businesses,54,1,58,1","cad,23,1","calendar,4,2","calibrate,6,1,9,1","calibrated,13,1","calibrating,1,1,53,1","calibration,1,1,14,1","called,57,1","camels,17,1,18,1","capabilities,1,1","capability,1,1,35,1,26,1,31,1,53,1","capacity,1,10,6,1,7,3,9,2,8,1,10,1,13,5,14,2,15,3,17,2,18,2","capita,17,1,18,1","capitalize,6,1,16,1","capture,1,1","carried,15,2","carry,15,1","cas,104,1","case,35,1,26,1,28,1,30,1,31,1","cases,92,1,103,1","categories,35,2,26,2,28,2,30,2,31,2","category,35,5,26,5,28,5,30,5,31,5","caters,1,1","caused,17,1,18,1","causing,57,1","cbinf,23,1","ccedil,100,2,104,1,99,2,105,1","cdmha,35,1,31,2","cds,15,1","ce,100,2,104,7,99,2","ceci,104,1","cembre,100,5,104,3,99,5","center,35,1,26,1,28,1,30,1,31,2,57,2","centers,13,3,35,1,15,1,26,1,28,1,30,1,31,2","central,35,6,96,1,26,7,28,6,30,6,31,6,54,1,58,1,92,2,59,2,62,1,94,1,95,1,98,1,103,3,119,6,105,2","centrale,104,1","centrales,104,1","centre,1,8,4,1,5,1,6,1,7,1,8,1,10,1,11,1,12,1,13,2,35,5,96,1,97,1,14,1,15,1,16,1,17,1,18,1,24,1,25,1,26,4,28,6,30,6,31,7,53,3,54,1,55,1,56,1,58,1,92,1,93,1,59,1,60,1,61,1,62,1,94,1,95,1,98,1,100,2,101,1,103,1,104,2,106,1,107,1,119,2,2,4,23,3,57,1,99,1,105,1","centred,35,1,26,1,28,1,30,1,31,1","centres,1,4,13,1,28,1,30,1,53,2,60,1,62,1,105,1","certaines,104,5","certains,102,1","cessation,13,1","cette,104,2","ceux,104,1","cevants,100,1,99,1","challenge,12,1","challenges,7,1,9,8,12,1,13,2","chances,35,2,26,2,28,2,30,2,31,2,55,2","change,1,3,6,1,9,4,8,4,10,1,16,1","changes,10,1,11,1","chapters,12,1","characterized,16,1","charcoal,9,2,8,2","chef,23,1","cheresse,98,1,104,1","ches,104,2","children,12,1","cholera,10,2","chosen,55,1","cipitation,100,1,99,1","circular,57,2","circulation,13,1,60,1","city,54,1,58,1","civil,23,2","clan,12,1","clearance,9,1,8,1","clearer,1,1","clearly,12,1,98,1","climat,100,1,102,1,104,1,99,1","climate,1,43,4,1,5,1,6,19,7,14,9,42,8,21,10,17,11,11,12,14,13,20,35,23,96,1,97,1,14,2,15,5,16,10,17,4,18,4,24,2,25,3,26,20,28,22,30,22,31,26,53,13,54,11,55,21,56,20,58,11,92,1,93,1,59,21,60,12,61,11,62,28,94,1,95,1,98,1,100,6,102,1,101,2,103,7,104,1,106,1,107,1,119,3,2,4,23,2,57,13,99,5,105,5","climatewatch,54,4","climatic,1,2,10,1,15,1,16,3,92,1","climatique,100,1,104,1,99,1","climatiques,100,1,104,4,99,1","climatological,1,1,35,1,26,1,28,1,30,1,31,1,101,1,119,1","climatologie,23,1","climatology,1,1,35,2,26,2,28,2,30,2,31,2","close,1,1","closely,10,1","cloudiness,61,1","clustering,13,1","co,16,1","coast,35,1,31,1,62,3,103,1,105,1","coastal,5,3,6,2,7,2,8,2,10,2,11,22,12,2,13,2,35,1,14,2,15,2,16,2,17,2,18,2,26,2,31,1,55,1,59,2,103,1,119,2,105,1","coastline,11,1","coasts,35,1,31,1","coded,13,1","cof,35,1,31,1","cof14,26,4","cof15,28,4,30,4,62,1","cof16,35,1,25,1,26,1,28,1,30,1,31,4,93,1,106,1,107,1,23,1","cofs,25,4","cola,13,1","cold,9,1,8,1","colder,35,1,26,1,31,1","collaborate,10,1,6,1","collaborating,13,1","collaboration,1,4,13,1,35,1,14,1,17,1,18,1,26,1,31,1,119,1","collaborations,7,1,12,2","collaborative,15,1","collection,15,1","college,35,1,31,2","com,23,4","combating,9,2,8,1","come,15,1","coming,4,2,35,1,26,1,31,1","comments,1,1,4,1,5,1,7,1,8,1,10,1,11,1,12,1,13,1,35,1,96,1,97,1,14,1,15,1,16,1,17,1,18,1,24,1,25,1,26,1,28,1,30,1,53,1,54,1,55,1,56,1,58,1,92,1,93,1,59,1,60,1,61,1,62,1,94,1,95,1,98,1,100,1,101,1,103,1,104,1,106,1,107,1,119,1,6,1,23,1,57,1,99,1,105,1","commissioner,23,1","common,10,2,35,1,26,1,31,1,55,1","commonly,17,1,18,1","communicate,12,1,13,1","communication,12,1,14,1","communications,1,1","communities,16,1","comparatively,57,1","compares,59,1","complete,14,1","completed,1,1","component,15,1","components,1,1,7,1,103,2","compounded,35,1,31,1","comprising,28,1,30,1","computer,1,4,13,1,53,1","computers,14,1","computing,1,2,13,2","concentr,104,1","concentrated,59,3,103,1","concern,9,1,8,1","concernant,100,1,99,1","cond,92,4","condition,92,1,119,3","conditions,1,1,9,1,13,1,35,5,96,2,97,3,16,2,26,5,28,1,30,1,31,5,53,1,56,1,92,12,93,1,59,5,60,2,94,1,95,1,98,5,100,6,101,2,103,10,104,9,106,2,107,2,119,11,6,1,14,1,57,1,99,6,105,7","conduct,15,1","conducting,9,2,8,1","configuration,13,1","configurations,100,1,99,1","confirm,55,1","confirmed,54,1,58,1","conflict,92,2,103,1","conflicts,16,1","conflits,104,1","conjunction,1,1,53,1","conna,100,1,99,1","connecting,14,1","conomiques,100,2,99,2","cons,100,1,104,2,99,1","consacr,100,1,99,1","consensus,1,2,35,3,26,2,28,4,30,4,31,4,53,2,62,1,6,1","consequence,9,1,8,1","consequent,16,1","consequently,119,1","conservation,16,3","considered,35,1,26,1,28,1,30,1,31,1,98,1","considering,98,1","constantly,1,1","constitutes,35,1,26,1,28,1,30,1,31,1","construction,1,1","contact,1,4,4,3,5,3,7,3,8,3,10,3,11,3,12,3,13,3,35,4,96,3,97,3,15,3,16,3,17,3,18,3,24,3,25,3,26,4,28,4,30,4,31,1,53,3,54,3,55,3,56,3,58,3,92,3,93,3,59,3,60,3,61,3,62,3,95,3,98,3,100,3,101,3,103,3,104,3,106,3,107,3,119,3,6,3,14,3,23,14,94,3,57,3,99,3,105,3","contains,100,1,101,1,99,1","continu,104,2","continuation,13,1","continue,13,1,97,1,100,1,99,1","continued,56,1,92,2,103,2","continuent,100,1,99,1","continuous,13,1","continuously,13,1","contre,104,1","contribute,7,1,11,1","contribution,17,1,18,1","contributors,35,4,25,1,26,3,28,4,30,4,31,4","controlled,1,1","convection,57,2","convened,35,1,26,1,28,1,30,1,31,1","convention,9,1,8,1","conventions,9,1,8,1","convergence,119,1","cool,97,1","cooler,96,1,28,1,30,1","cope,7,1","copies,15,1","coping,16,1","copy,1,1,4,1,5,1,7,1,8,1,10,1,11,1,12,1,13,1,35,1,96,1,97,1,15,1,16,1,17,1,18,1,24,1,25,1,26,1,28,1,30,1,53,1,54,1,55,1,56,1,58,1,92,1,93,1,59,1,60,1,61,1,62,1,95,1,98,1,100,1,101,1,103,1,104,1,106,1,107,1,119,1,6,1,14,1,23,1,94,1,57,1,99,1,105,1","copying,12,1","coral,11,2","core,1,2,9,1","could,1,1,26,2,53,1","counties,54,1,58,1","countries,1,8,4,1,5,1,9,4,8,3,11,2,35,4,16,1,24,1,25,1,26,3,28,3,30,3,31,4,53,2,62,1,106,1,107,1,119,2,6,2,23,1","country,23,1","county,54,1,58,1","coupled,35,1,26,1,28,1,30,1,31,1,60,1,105,1","cours,100,1,104,1,99,1","course,14,1","courtesy,102,1,101,1","couverte,104,1","cover,62,1,119,1","cp3,9,1","cpc,1,1,4,1,5,1,13,1,35,2,24,1,25,1,26,2,28,2,30,2,31,2,53,1,102,1,101,1,106,1,107,1,119,1,6,1,23,1","create,10,1,16,1,6,1","creating,14,2","creation,1,1,9,2,8,1,11,1,13,1,14,1","credible,14,1","crit,100,1,99,1","critical,12,1","crop,92,1,6,1,14,1","crossed,54,1,58,1","crucial,7,1","cultivation,9,1,8,1","cummulative,118,4","cumulated,56,2","cumulative,56,1,100,1,118,1,119,1,99,1","cumuls,100,1,99,1","curit,100,1,99,1","current,1,3,35,2,26,2,28,3,30,3,31,3,53,3,54,2,55,2,56,2,58,2,59,2,60,3,61,2,62,2,119,1,57,2","currently,13,1,60,1,62,1,14,2","curriculum,7,1","customisation,13,1","cut,54,1,58,1","cutting,9,1,8,1","cycle,11,1","cyclone,54,3,55,2,56,2,58,3,59,2,60,2,61,2,62,2,57,25","cyclones,11,3,13,1,28,1,30,1,55,1,60,1,57,12","daily,55,3","dam,9,1,8,1","damaged,54,1,58,1","dams,9,1,8,1","dans,100,6,104,16,99,6","dar,23,1","data,1,9,7,1,9,1,10,1,17,1,18,1,55,1,101,1,6,2,14,15","databanks,1,1","database,13,1,14,3","databases,13,1","dataset,14,1","day,1,1,13,1,53,3,119,10","days,13,1","dead,54,1,58,1","deadliest,54,2,58,2","dealing,11,1","deaths,16,1","decades,61,1","december,13,1,26,4,31,7,35,6,92,2,59,2,100,5,102,1,103,3,119,3,99,5,105,5","decembre,102,1,105,1","decision,1,2,9,1,8,1,12,1,15,1,6,2,14,1","decisions,7,1","deep,57,1","deficit,100,1,99,1","deficits,26,1,31,1,35,1,100,1,119,1,99,1","defined,26,2,28,2,30,2,31,2,35,2","deforestation,9,1,8,1","deg,97,1,57,2","degradation,9,2,8,2","degree,59,1","dekad,1,1,53,1,59,2,119,16","dekadal,1,4,13,1,53,4","delineate,55,1","delineation,1,1","delivery,12,1","deltas,11,1","demand,1,1,9,1,8,1,17,1,18,1","demonstrate,7,1","demonstration,12,1","demystify,12,2","dentaires,104,1","department,9,1,8,1,16,1,26,3,28,2,30,2,31,6,35,3,6,2,14,1,23,3","depend,9,1,8,1,59,1,62,1","dependency,9,2,8,2","dependent,16,1,62,1","depends,57,1","depletion,9,2,8,2","depress,60,1","derive,1,1,53,1","derived,1,3,13,1,28,1,30,1,53,2,98,1,101,1","deriving,62,1","des,100,3,104,13,99,3","describing,12,1,100,1,99,1","desertification,1,1,9,3,8,2","design,9,4","destinations,16,1","destroyed,54,1,58,1","destroying,54,1,58,1","destruction,17,1,18,1,54,1,58,1","details,26,1,28,1,30,1,31,1,35,1,62,1,100,1,99,1","detect,1,1,53,1","detection,1,1","deterioration,119,1","determines,16,1","develop,1,1,7,3,9,4,8,3,10,2,13,3,16,1,26,1,6,5,57,1,105,1","developed,26,1,31,1,35,1,54,1,58,1,6,1","developing,9,1,8,1","development,1,7,5,3,7,3,9,9,8,7,10,2,11,2,12,3,13,3,15,12,16,2,17,3,18,3,26,2,28,4,30,4,31,4,35,2,6,4,14,2","developments,13,1","devoted,100,1,99,1","devrait,100,1,104,2,99,1","diagnostic,1,1,13,1","diagnostics,1,4,53,1","diameter,57,1","dicaments,104,1","dictates,16,1","didace,23,1","didn,54,1,58,1","difference,119,1","different,15,1,14,1","diffuse,119,1","dipole,13,1,62,4,105,1","direct,9,1,8,1","directed,15,1","directly,10,1,62,2","director,1,2,5,2,7,2,8,2,10,2,11,2,12,2,13,2,96,2,97,2,15,2,16,2,17,2,18,2,24,2,25,2,26,2,28,2,30,2,35,2,54,2,55,2,56,2,58,2,92,2,93,2,59,2,60,2,61,2,62,2,95,2,98,2,100,2,101,2,103,2,104,2,106,2,107,2,119,2,4,2,6,2,14,2,23,13,94,2,53,2,57,2,99,2,105,2","disaster,1,1,5,3,7,19,8,2,10,2,11,2,12,3,13,2,15,2,16,2,17,2,18,2,25,1,26,3,28,2,30,2,31,5,35,4,93,1,106,1,107,1,6,2,14,2,23,1","disasters,7,2,9,2,8,1,14,1","disciplinary,7,1","discoveries,15,1","discriminate,55,1","disease,10,5,6,3","diseases,10,9,16,1,92,1,103,1,119,1,6,2","displayed,55,1","disponible,104,1","disseminated,1,1,13,1,53,1","dissemination,1,3,7,1","distr,101,4","distributed,14,1","distribution,9,1,11,1,13,1,96,1,97,1,92,2,93,1,59,2,62,1,95,1,98,2,100,2,101,4,103,2,104,2,106,2,107,2,119,2,8,1,94,1,99,2,105,3","distributions,26,1,28,1,30,1,31,1,35,1","diversity,11,1","divided,59,1,100,1,99,1","division,9,2,12,1,13,3,8,2,14,1,15,1,23,1","dj,23,2","djibouiti,28,1,30,1","djibouti,1,1,5,1,24,1,25,1,26,5,28,5,30,5,31,4,35,4,106,1,107,1,119,1,4,1,6,1,23,5,53,1","dmc,1,1","dmch,1,3,5,1,24,1,25,1,26,1,28,1,30,1,35,1,106,1,107,1,119,1,4,1,6,1,23,1,53,1","dmcn,1,7,5,1,7,1,10,1,11,1,12,1,13,1,96,1,97,1,16,1,17,1,18,1,24,1,25,1,26,2,28,1,30,1,31,1,35,2,54,1,55,1,56,1,58,1,92,1,93,1,59,1,60,1,61,1,62,1,95,1,98,1,100,1,101,1,103,1,104,1,106,1,107,1,119,2,4,1,6,1,8,1,14,1,15,1,23,1,94,1,53,1,57,1,99,1,105,1","document,31,4,102,4","documentation,1,2,13,1,15,3","documented,9,1,8,1","domestic,92,3,119,1","dominaient,100,1,99,1","dominant,100,1,57,1,99,1,105,2","dominated,28,1,30,1,60,1,105,3","dominating,60,1","donn,104,1","donne,100,2,104,1,99,2","doppler,14,1","dorminant,9,1,8,1","double,57,1","down,9,1,11,1,54,1,58,1,8,1","download,14,1","downscale,9,2,10,1,6,1,8,1","downscaled,9,1,8,1","downscaling,9,1,13,7,6,1","downtown,54,1,58,1","dozens,54,1,58,1","dr,23,2","draft,31,1","driest,26,1,28,1,30,1,31,1,35,1","driving,9,1,8,1","drought,1,4,9,2,10,1,96,1,97,1,17,2,18,2,26,2,28,1,30,1,31,3,35,2,56,1,92,3,93,1,95,1,98,14,100,2,101,3,103,3,104,2,106,2,107,2,119,3,8,2,94,1,53,1,99,2,105,2","droughts,1,1,10,1,16,1,6,1","dry,13,1,56,1,59,4,62,1,98,3,101,1,103,3,119,5,105,1","du,26,1,28,1,30,1,31,2,35,1,100,3,104,9,23,1,99,3,105,1","due,1,1,17,2,18,2,92,1,59,1,103,2","durant,100,1,99,1","duration,26,1,31,1,35,1","during,7,1,9,1,13,1,26,3,28,3,30,3,31,3,35,3,92,3,59,6,62,1,98,1,100,4,103,5,119,9,8,1,94,1,57,2,99,4,105,3","dynamical,1,3,26,2,28,1,30,1,31,2,35,2,13,5,53,2","dynamics,16,1,13,1","eacute,96,1,97,1,95,2,98,1,100,50,102,3,101,1,104,54,94,1,99,50,105,1","early,1,5,5,2,7,5,9,6,10,4,11,3,12,1,16,1,17,3,18,3,54,1,58,1,6,5,8,5,13,9,14,2,15,1,53,1,57,1","earners,16,1","east,54,1,58,1","eastern,1,1,96,1,97,1,26,9,28,6,30,6,31,8,35,8,92,3,59,1,60,1,62,2,95,2,103,1,119,6,94,1,57,1","eastward,54,1,58,1","eau,104,2","echam,13,4","echam4,13,1","ecirc,104,3","ecmwf,26,1,31,2,35,1,13,2","ecmwrf,28,1,30,1","economic,1,3,7,2,9,3,16,2,56,1,92,3,59,1,62,2,100,2,119,3,8,3,15,2,53,2,99,2","economies,11,1,6,1","economy,6,1","ecosystems,11,1","educate,12,1","educated,1,1","education,1,1,7,1,9,2,12,2,8,1","educational,6,1","effective,12,1,62,1","effects,16,1,57,1","efficient,9,1","effort,1,1,6,1","efforts,13,1","egrave,100,3,104,2,99,3","electrical,9,1,8,1","electronic,12,1","element,59,1","elkhidir,23,1","elle,100,1,99,1","email,23,3","emergency,92,2,103,1","emerging,13,1","emission,9,1,8,1","emmerging,6,1","emphasis,9,1,8,1","emphasised,28,1,30,1","emphasized,26,1,31,1,35,1","empirical,26,1,31,1,35,1,13,2","encompassing,11,1","encounter,14,1","encourage,9,4,8,3,15,3","end,1,2,26,1","endowed,9,1,8,1","endroits,104,2","energy,1,2,5,3,7,2,9,65,10,2,11,2,12,3,16,2,17,2,18,2,92,1,6,2,8,38,13,2,14,2,15,2,53,1","engaged,11,1,13,1","engine,9,1,8,1","english,92,1,98,1,100,1,101,1,103,1,104,1,106,1,107,1,99,1,105,1","enhance,1,2,7,2,9,4,10,1,16,1,6,2,8,3,13,1,14,1,53,1","enhanced,1,5,7,1,9,2,10,1,16,2,17,1,18,1,6,1,8,1","enhancing,10,1,11,2,13,2,15,1","enlarge,61,1","enormous,13,1","enregistr,104,5","ensemble,13,5","ensure,13,1,15,1","entire,54,1,58,1","entre,104,1","environment,7,1,12,2,16,1,92,1,23,1","environmental,7,1,9,1,16,1,26,1,28,1,30,1,31,2,35,1,56,1,8,1,14,2","epidemic,10,3","episodic,26,1,30,1,31,1,35,1,55,1,62,1,28,1","equal,26,1,30,1,31,1,35,1,28,1","equally,59,1","equatorial,97,1,26,2,30,2,31,2,35,2,59,8,60,2,61,1,62,2,95,2,98,1,100,1,102,2,103,2,119,7,28,2,94,1,99,1,105,5","eritrea,1,1,5,1,24,1,25,1,26,6,30,5,31,5,35,5,107,1,119,2,4,1,6,1,28,5,23,4,53,1,106,1","erosion,11,1","ersad,23,1","especially,1,2,10,1,11,1,96,1,17,1,18,1,26,1,31,1,35,1,100,1,99,1","est,100,1,104,2,99,1","establish,9,1,10,2,16,1,6,1","established,1,2,26,1,30,1,31,1,35,1,28,1","establishment,12,1","estimate,17,1,18,1","estuaries,11,1","eta,13,1","ethiopia,1,1,5,1,9,1,24,1,25,1,26,8,30,7,31,7,35,7,92,2,62,1,103,1,107,1,119,4,4,1,6,1,8,1,28,7,23,4,53,1,105,1,106,1","ethiopie,104,1","eu,104,2","eumetsat,57,1","european,30,1,28,1","evaluation,13,1","evansville,54,1,58,1","even,26,1,30,1,31,1,35,1,54,1,58,1,28,1","events,1,5,5,1,10,2,16,1,24,1,25,1,26,3,30,2,31,1,35,2,55,3,93,1,62,1,107,1,119,1,4,2,6,1,28,2,23,1,53,1,106,1","evolution,1,1,55,2,62,1,13,1,53,1","evolutionary,13,2","evolutions,1,1,62,2,13,1","examine,9,5,8,5","examined,26,1,30,1,31,1,35,1,28,1","example,26,2,30,1,31,1,35,1,14,2,28,1","examples,12,1","exc,104,1","exceeding,54,1,58,1","exception,55,1","exchange,1,2,9,1,10,1,16,1","exchanging,10,1,11,1","executed,1,1","existence,57,1","existing,14,1","exists,16,1,17,1,18,1,14,1","expand,1,1","expanding,1,1","expectation,119,1","expected,26,1,30,1,31,1,35,1,92,3,59,1,100,2,103,2,119,1,6,1,28,1,99,2,105,2","experience,62,3,100,1,119,1,99,1","experienced,96,1,26,1,31,1,35,1,103,1,119,3,105,1","expert,26,1,30,1,31,2,35,2,28,1","experts,9,4,10,2,17,1,18,1,26,2,30,2,31,4,35,3,6,2,8,2,13,1,14,1,28,2","explain,13,1","exploitation,11,1","exploration,9,1","explore,9,1,8,1","extend,9,1,8,1","extends,57,1","extension,13,1","extreme,1,4,9,1,10,2,16,1,26,3,6,1,8,1","extremes,1,2,7,1,9,1,10,1,16,1,8,1","eye,57,3","eyes,57,1","eyewall,57,3","f0,54,1,58,1","f3,54,2,58,2","f5,54,1,58,1","facilitate,1,1","facilities,1,1,13,1,14,1","fact,6,1","factoring,9,3,10,1,11,1,16,1,6,1,8,1","factors,17,1,18,1,26,4,30,4,31,6,35,6,56,1,14,1,28,4","fadalla,23,1","fair,57,1","fairly,119,1","faits,100,1,99,1","far,7,1,26,1,62,1,100,1,57,1,99,1","farm,6,1","farmers,1,1,53,1","fast,17,1,18,1","fauna,16,1","favour,30,1,28,1","fax,1,1,5,1,7,1,10,1,11,1,12,1,96,1,97,1,16,1,17,1,18,1,24,1,25,1,26,1,30,1,35,1,54,1,55,1,56,1,58,1,92,1,93,1,59,1,60,1,61,1,62,1,95,1,98,1,100,1,101,1,103,1,107,1,119,1,4,1,6,1,8,1,13,1,14,1,15,1,28,1,23,12,94,1,53,1,57,1,99,1,104,1,105,1,106,1","features,11,1","feb,24,4","february,26,1,59,4,57,1","fed,6,1","feedback,1,2,13,1","fever,10,2,6,1","fews,30,1,28,1","fewsnet,1,1,17,1,18,1,31,4,35,2","ficitaire,100,3,99,3,104,1","ficitaires,100,1,99,1,104,1","ficits,100,1,99,1","fields,1,1","fifteenth,30,3,62,1,28,3","fig,97,1,102,2,101,1,103,1,119,1,94,1,105,3","figure,96,2,55,2,56,2,59,10,60,2,61,6,62,1,95,2,98,2,118,1,119,7,57,6,101,1,104,1,105,1","figure7a,59,1","figures,55,1,59,1,61,1","file,9,4","final,100,1,99,1","finalise,6,1","find,15,1","findings,15,1","finer,26,1,30,1,31,1,35,1,28,1","fire,16,1","first,98,1","fish,11,1","fisheries,30,1,28,1","fit,6,1","five,54,1,58,1","flood,10,1,17,1,18,1","flooding,11,1","floods,1,1,9,2,10,1,16,1,17,1,18,1,26,1,31,1,35,1,6,1,8,2,57,1","flora,16,1","flow,17,1,18,1,57,1","flows,17,1,18,1","fluctuations,9,1,8,1","flush,26,1,31,1,35,1","focal,9,2,8,1","following,92,2,62,1,103,1,14,1","food,1,1,12,1,26,1,30,1,31,10,35,8,56,1,92,3,100,1,103,1,119,2,6,13,28,1,99,1","fora,1,1,53,1","forage,16,2,119,2,6,2","forecast,1,1,16,1,26,4,30,2,31,2,35,2,13,1,15,1,28,2,53,1","forecasting,1,1,17,2,18,2,26,1,30,1,31,1,35,1,15,1,28,1","forecasts,1,3,5,2,7,2,10,2,11,2,12,2,96,2,97,2,16,2,17,2,18,2,24,10,25,6,26,6,30,8,35,6,54,2,55,2,58,2,92,2,93,2,59,2,60,3,61,2,62,2,95,2,98,2,100,2,103,2,107,2,119,2,4,2,6,2,8,2,13,7,14,2,15,2,28,8,23,2,94,2,53,2,56,2,57,2,99,2,101,2,104,2,105,3,106,2","foreign,16,1","forestry,9,1,8,1","forests,9,1,8,1","form,9,1,8,1,57,1","formation,57,1","formats,14,1","formed,57,1","formerly,26,1,31,1,35,1","forms,13,1","formulate,26,1,30,1,31,1,35,1,28,1","formulated,26,1,30,1,31,1,35,1,28,1","formulation,9,1,8,1,15,1","forthcoming,16,1,6,1","forum,25,1,26,8,30,9,31,9,35,10,62,1,6,2,28,9","forums,1,2","fossil,9,1,8,1","fostered,1,1","fostering,1,1","found,57,1","foundation,13,1","fourteenth,26,3","frame,9,1","framework,7,1,9,1,26,1,30,1,31,2,35,1,8,1,28,1","french,92,1,98,1,100,1,103,1,107,1,99,1,101,1,104,1,105,1,106,1","frequent,16,1","freshwater,17,3,18,3","friendly,12,1","fsof,6,1","fsu,13,4","fuels,9,2,8,2","fuelwood,9,2,8,2","fujita,54,1,58,1","full,5,1,24,1,25,2,26,2,30,2,35,2,93,2,107,2,4,1,28,2,23,2,106,2","fully,30,1,31,1,35,1,14,1,28,1,26,1","funded,1,1,30,1,31,2,35,1,28,1,26,1","funding,1,1","furthermore,11,1","future,1,1,9,3,8,2,53,1","gas,9,1,8,1","gcms,13,1","gemel,23,1","gender,1,1,12,1","generate,14,1","generation,1,1,9,3,30,1,31,2,35,1,8,2,14,1,28,1,26,1","genesis,57,1","geographic,14,2,23,1","geographical,17,1,18,1,14,1","geographique,30,1,31,2,35,1,28,1,26,1","germany,13,1","gha,7,2,9,3,10,1,11,2,12,1,16,1,17,3,18,3,30,1,31,3,35,2,59,1,62,4,118,4,119,1,8,3,13,3,14,1,28,1,26,2,57,4","ghacof,24,2","ghacof1,24,1","ghacof10,24,1","ghacof11,24,1","ghacof12,24,1","ghacof13,24,1","ghacof14,24,1","ghacof15,24,1,25,1,30,1,28,1","ghacof16,24,1,35,5","ghacof2,24,1","ghacof3,24,1","ghacof4,24,1","ghacof5,24,1","ghacof6,24,1","ghacof7,24,1","ghacof8,24,1","ghacof9,24,1","ghacofs,25,1","gion,100,2,99,2,104,3","gis,1,1,5,3,7,2,10,2,11,2,12,2,16,2,17,4,18,4,6,2,8,2,13,2,14,9,15,2","given,16,1,30,1,31,2,35,2,14,1,28,1,26,1","giving,60,1,95,1,119,1","global,9,2,30,1,31,1,35,1,8,2,13,9,28,1,26,2,104,1","goal,7,1,9,1,11,2,12,1,6,1,8,1,14,2","goals,15,1","good,1,1,7,2,92,2,119,1","government,1,1","govmet,23,1","gr,104,1","gradients,62,1,13,1","g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95,2,98,2,100,2,107,2,119,2,4,2,6,2,8,2,13,2,14,2,15,2,28,2,23,7,24,2,25,2,26,2,94,2,53,2,56,2,57,2,58,2,99,2,101,2,103,2,104,2,105,2,106,2","information,5,1,7,7,9,11,10,7,11,5,12,6,97,1,16,3,17,3,18,3,30,2,31,3,35,3,54,1,55,1,92,1,93,1,59,1,60,1,61,1,62,1,95,1,98,1,100,1,1,14,119,1,4,1,6,7,8,7,13,1,14,5,15,4,28,2,23,7,24,1,25,1,26,2,94,1,96,1,53,4,56,1,57,1,58,1,99,1,101,1,103,1,104,1,105,1,106,1,107,1","informed,1,1","infra,101,1","infrastructure,16,1","inhabited,16,1","initial,13,1","initiate,14,2","initiated,1,1","initiatives,7,1,9,1,10,2","injured,54,1,58,1","input,30,1,1,1,6,1,15,1,28,1","inputs,31,2,35,1,26,1","ins,100,1,99,1","insecurity,100,1,119,1,99,1","insititut,30,1,31,2,35,1,28,1,26,1","installing,14,1","institut,23,1","institute,30,2,31,2,35,1,13,2,28,2,26,1","institution,1,2,14,1,15,2","institutions,7,3,10,1,11,1,17,1,18,1,30,1,31,2,35,1,1,1,6,1,15,2,28,1,26,1,53,1","integrate,6,1","integrated,7,1,11,1,14,2","integration,7,1,31,1,35,1","intense,30,1,62,1,119,1,28,1","inter,30,1,31,1,35,1,119,1,28,1,26,1","interactions,10,1,1,1,6,1","interacts,16,1","interfere,57,1","international,7,1,9,3,12,1,30,4,31,6,35,3,1,1,8,2,13,3,14,1,15,2,28,4,26,3","interpret,9,2,8,1","interpretation,30,2,31,2,35,2,28,2,26,2","intervention,62,1","intnet,23,1","intranet,14,1","introduction,100,2,119,3,99,2","invaluable,14,1","involve,12,1","inwards,57,1","iod,62,2,13,1","iri,5,1,30,3,31,4,35,3,1,1,119,1,4,1,6,1,13,6,28,3,23,1,24,1,25,1,26,3,53,1,106,1,107,1","isang,57,2","isol,104,2","isolated,97,1,59,2,95,1,98,1,96,1,103,1","issue,9,1,8,1","issues,12,1,6,1","itcz,119,1","its,30,1,31,1,35,1,59,1,95,1,1,2,13,1,28,1,26,1,94,1,53,1,57,1","iv,30,1,31,1,35,1,28,1,26,1","january,55,1,59,4,61,1,57,2","jargons,12,2","jja,13,1","jointly,30,1,31,2,35,1,28,1,26,1","journals,15,1","julian,13,1","juliet,57,3","july,59,1,57,3","jumped,54,1,58,1","jun,5,1,7,1,10,1,11,1,12,1,16,1,17,1,18,1,30,1,35,1,54,1,55,1,92,1,93,1,59,1,60,1,61,1,62,1,95,1,98,1,100,1,1,1,119,1,4,1,6,1,8,1,13,1,14,1,15,1,28,1,23,1,24,1,25,1,26,1,94,1,96,1,97,1,53,1,56,1,57,1,58,1,99,1,101,1,103,1,104,1,105,1,106,1,107,1","june,59,1,56,1","jusqu,100,1,99,1","kahsay,23,1","kampala,1,1,23,1","kassahun,23,1","kemfri,11,1","kentucky,54,3,58,3","kentucy,54,2,58,2","kenya,5,2,7,1,10,1,11,1,12,1,16,1,17,1,18,1,30,9,31,7,35,8,54,1,55,1,92,3,93,1,59,1,60,1,61,1,62,4,95,1,98,1,100,1,1,2,119,6,4,2,6,2,8,1,13,1,14,2,15,1,28,9,23,6,24,2,25,2,26,9,94,1,96,1,97,1,53,2,56,1,57,1,58,1,99,1,101,1,103,3,104,3,105,3,106,2,107,2","kenyan,31,1,35,1","key,12,1,1,1,6,1,14,1,103,1","khartoum,1,2,23,1","kigali,23,1","killed,54,2,58,2","kim,9,4","km,57,3","kmd,5,1,30,1,35,1,1,1,119,1,4,1,6,1,28,1,23,1,24,1,25,1,26,1,53,1,106,1,107,1","knowledge,16,1,1,1,6,1","known,57,2","lack,16,1,92,2,119,1,103,1","lagoons,11,1","lake,17,1,18,1","land,9,2,8,2","lands,16,1,23,1","language,12,1","languages,12,1","laquo,7,1,10,1,11,1,12,1,16,1,17,1,30,6,35,1,54,1,55,1,92,1,59,1,60,1,61,1,62,1,95,1,98,1,100,1,1,6,119,7,6,1,8,1,13,1,14,1,18,1,15,1,28,6,26,5,94,1,96,1,53,1,56,1,57,1,97,1,99,1,101,1,103,1,104,1,105,1","large,16,1,30,1,31,1,35,1,28,1,26,1,57,1","largely,16,1,59,1,57,1","lasts,54,1,58,1","lateral,13,1","ldquo,30,1,35,1,1,1,28,1,26,1","lead,9,1,8,1","leading,9,2,16,1,8,2","leads,9,2,8,2,57,1","lean,31,1,35,1,26,1","least,54,3,14,1,58,3","leaving,54,1,58,1","led,9,1,8,1","les,100,11,99,11,104,15","less,98,1,119,3,103,1","level,11,1,16,1,6,1,13,1","levels,9,1,11,1,8,1","liaison,1,1","library,1,1,15,3","lieu,104,1","life,16,2","light,57,1","likelihood,30,8,31,9,35,9,92,1,28,8,26,11","likely,60,1,62,5,100,1,119,6,55,1,99,1,103,1,105,4","line,9,1,54,1,8,1,15,1,58,1","linkages,9,3,10,1,11,2,16,1,6,1,8,2","linked,9,1,8,1","links,5,2,30,2,35,2,1,2,119,2,4,2,6,3,23,1,24,2,25,2,26,2,28,2,53,2,106,2,107,2","lioration,104,1","little,9,1,119,1,8,1","littoral,104,1","live,7,1,12,1,16,1","livelihood,12,1,62,2,6,1","livelihoods,7,1,6,1","livestock,12,1,31,1,35,1,92,6,1,1,119,3,6,7,26,1,56,1,103,2","local,30,1,31,1,35,1,13,1,15,1,26,1,28,1","localised,103,1","localit,100,2,99,2","localized,119,3","location,14,2","locations,60,1,62,1,100,3,55,1,99,3","long,59,9,95,3,100,1,94,3,57,1,99,1,101,1","loss,16,2","losses,9,1,8,1","lowest,57,1","lsquo,15,1,57,1","m3,17,1,18,1","madden,13,1","magezi,23,1","mail,5,1,7,1,10,1,11,1,12,1,16,1,17,1,30,1,35,1,54,1,92,1,93,1,59,1,60,1,61,1,62,1,95,1,98,1,100,1,1,1,119,1,4,1,6,1,8,1,13,1,14,1,18,1,15,1,23,9,24,1,25,1,26,1,94,1,96,1,28,1,53,1,55,1,56,1,57,1,58,1,97,1,99,1,101,1,103,1,104,1,105,1,106,1,107,1","main,1,2,6,1,13,1,14,1,57,1","mainly,16,1,59,1,119,1,97,1,103,1,105,1","maintain,11,1","majeure,100,1,99,1","major,7,2,9,4,11,1,12,1,62,1,100,1,1,4,8,3,13,1,15,1,53,2,99,1","majority,12,1","makers,1,1,53,1","making,10,1,12,1,1,1,6,2,14,1,15,1","maladies,104,1","malaria,10,4","malnutrition,92,1,119,1,103,1,104,1","mam,13,1","managed,1,1","management,5,3,7,17,9,9,10,3,11,4,12,3,16,4,17,4,30,2,31,3,35,3,93,1,1,3,6,4,8,6,13,2,14,4,18,4,15,2,23,1,25,1,26,2,28,2,106,1,107,1","managers,9,1","mandates,1,1","mangroves,11,4","manner,9,1,8,1","map,10,1,30,1,31,1,35,1,60,1,26,1,28,1,97,1","mapping,7,1,9,3,10,1,11,1,8,1,14,1","maps,9,1","mar,24,1","march,30,7,54,1,59,5,60,1,62,5,28,7,55,2,57,6,58,1","marine,5,3,7,2,10,2,11,22,12,2,16,2,17,2,30,1,6,2,8,2,13,2,14,2,18,2,15,2,28,1","markets,6,1","marquants,100,1,99,1","mascarene,119,1,55,1","maseno,31,2,35,1,26,1","materials,6,1","maurice,23,1","max,13,1,96,4","maximum,7,1,93,1,61,1,95,1,94,1,96,6,57,1,97,1","meager,16,1","mean,59,1,95,2,101,1","media,12,1,30,1,31,1,35,1,15,1,26,1,28,1","median,30,1,31,1,35,1,26,1,28,1","medicine,92,2,103,1","medium,30,1,13,4,28,1","meet,13,1","melbourne,57,1","member,9,1,62,1,6,1,13,1,14,2,23,1","meningitis,10,1","mes,100,1,99,1","met,30,1,31,2,35,1,13,1,23,3,26,1,28,1","met5,57,1","meteo,23,5","meteorological,10,1,30,12,31,19,35,11,62,1,1,3,119,1,23,13,26,11,28,12,53,2","meteorologie,30,1,31,2,35,1,26,1,28,1","meteorologique,23,3","meteorologist,54,1,58,1","meteorology,30,1,31,4,35,2,13,1,23,2,26,2,28,1,57,1","methodology,30,3,31,1,35,3,25,1,26,2,28,3","methods,9,1,13,6","mhita,23,1","mi,100,1,99,1","mid,100,1,57,3,99,1","middle,30,1,31,1,35,1,54,1,26,1,28,1,58,1","middot,10,1","migration,119,1","migrations,16,2","mild,30,1,28,1","mile,54,1,58,1","miles,57,1","mills,54,1,58,1","min,97,4","mini,13,1","minimise,1,1","minimum,93,1,61,1,95,1,94,1,96,1,97,5","ministry,23,2","mission,1,3","mitigate,11,1,16,1","mitigation,7,1,31,1,35,1,26,1","mjo,13,1","mode,62,1,12,1,13,1,105,1","model,10,2,30,1,60,1,1,2,6,3,13,15,26,1,28,1,53,2,105,1","modeling,1,2,13,5","modelling,1,5,13,1,17,2,18,2,53,2","models,10,2,16,1,30,3,31,2,35,2,1,1,6,3,13,7,15,1,26,2,28,3,53,1","moderate,119,1","moderating,11,1","mohamed,23,1","mois,98,1,100,6,94,1,96,1,97,1,99,6,101,2,104,6","moisture,57,1","mombasa,30,2,28,2,62,1","moment,13,1,14,1","mon,5,1,7,1,10,1,11,1,16,1,30,1,35,1,54,1,92,1,93,1,59,1,60,1,61,1,95,5,98,1,100,1,1,1,119,1,4,1,6,1,8,1,12,1,13,1,14,1,17,1,18,1,15,1,23,1,24,1,25,1,26,1,94,5,96,1,28,1,53,1,55,1,56,1,57,1,58,1,62,1,97,1,99,1,101,1,103,1,104,1,105,1,106,1,107,1","monday,54,1,58,1","monitored,1,2,14,1,53,2","monitoring,9,3,11,1,30,1,31,2,35,1,54,4,59,4,60,4,61,4,1,9,119,1,8,2,14,6,15,1,26,1,28,1,53,1,55,14,56,13,57,4,58,4,62,4","monsoons,13,1","month,30,2,31,2,35,2,93,2,59,2,60,2,95,2,100,1,1,1,26,2,94,7,96,3,28,2,53,1,55,2,62,1,97,2,99,1,101,1,103,1","monthly,54,1,92,5,93,5,60,1,61,1,95,5,98,5,100,10,1,5,13,1,94,5,96,5,53,7,55,1,56,1,57,1,58,1,59,1,62,2,97,5,99,5,101,5,103,5,104,5,105,5,106,5,107,5","months,31,1,35,1,54,1,26,1,56,1,57,2,58,1,59,3,60,1,62,1,105,1","move,57,1","movements,16,1","moyenne,101,1","mph,54,3,58,3","mr,23,7","mtodji,23,1","mukabana,23,1","multi,7,1","multiple,14,1","munfordville,54,1,58,1","musoni,23,1","nairobi,5,1,7,1,10,1,11,1,16,1,30,3,31,4,35,4,54,1,92,1,93,1,61,1,95,1,98,1,100,1,1,4,119,2,4,1,6,1,8,1,12,1,13,1,14,1,17,1,18,1,15,1,23,3,24,1,25,1,26,4,94,1,96,1,28,3,53,1,55,1,56,1,57,1,58,1,59,1,60,1,62,1,97,1,99,1,101,1,103,1,104,1,105,1,106,1,107,1","name,1,1","namely,7,1,13,1,57,1,59,1","narrow,57,1","nation,9,1,8,1","national,7,5,9,4,10,2,11,1,30,7,31,10,35,7,54,1,1,6,119,1,6,1,8,1,12,2,13,3,16,2,23,2,26,8,28,7,53,1,58,1,62,1","nationale,30,1,31,2,35,1,26,1,28,1","nations,9,2,8,2","natural,7,1,14,5,16,1","ncep,30,1,31,2,35,1,102,1,13,3,26,1,28,1,101,1","ncmrwf,13,4","ncsu,13,1","ndash,7,1,35,1,102,1,26,1,55,1,59,1,62,2","ndvi,119,1,6,1,14,1","near,30,13,31,15,35,15,54,2,92,2,95,1,98,2,100,2,1,2,119,7,26,16,28,13,53,1,58,2,59,2,62,2,99,2,103,4,105,4","necessary,13,1,15,1","necjogha,12,1","negative,7,1,9,1,1,3,119,1,8,1,53,1,62,1","negatively,1,1,53,1","neighbourhood,57,2","neighbouring,54,1,58,1","nested,13,1","net,5,1,7,1,10,1,11,1,30,2,35,1,54,1,92,1,93,1,61,1,95,1,98,1,100,1,1,1,119,1,4,1,6,1,8,1,12,1,13,1,14,1,16,1,17,1,18,1,15,1,23,7,24,1,25,1,26,1,94,1,96,1,28,2,53,1,55,1,56,1,57,1,58,1,59,1,60,1,62,1,97,1,99,1,101,1,103,1,104,1,105,1,106,1,107,1","network,14,2","networking,1,1,12,1,14,1","neutral,30,1,31,1,35,1,28,1,60,1,105,1","new,7,1,9,1,10,1,1,1,6,1,13,2,14,1","newburgh,54,1,58,1","news,5,1,30,1,35,1,93,1,1,1,119,1,4,1,23,1,24,1,25,1,26,1,28,1,53,1,106,1,107,1","next,60,1,105,1","ni,30,1,13,1,26,2,28,1,60,1,105,1","night,54,1,58,1","nile,17,1,18,1","nino,31,1,35,1,105,2","nino3,60,1","nmhs,13,4","nmhss,30,1,31,1,35,1,1,5,119,1,12,1,13,2,26,1,28,1,62,1","nmsa,23,1","nmss,31,1,35,1,26,1","noaa,14,1,26,1,57,1","nombreuses,100,2,99,2","nord,104,3","normal,30,20,31,26,35,26,92,3,95,3,98,2,100,5,119,11,26,28,28,20,57,1,59,2,62,7,99,5,103,7,105,9","normale,100,2,99,2,104,4","normalized,119,1,101,1","normally,62,2","north,31,1,35,1,26,1,57,1,62,2","northeastern,30,1,31,2,35,2,119,1,26,7,28,1","northern,30,4,31,8,35,8,92,3,61,1,95,2,98,1,119,11,26,10,94,2,96,2,28,4,59,7,62,2,97,1,103,5,105,3","northwestern,30,1,31,1,35,1,119,1,26,3,28,1,57,1","note,30,3,31,1,35,3,25,1,26,2,28,3","noted,30,2,31,1,35,1,26,1,28,2","november,54,1,100,1,1,2,119,9,26,1,57,1,58,1,99,1,103,1","novembre,100,1,99,1,104,1","ntilde,30,1,13,1,26,2,28,1,60,3","num,119,1","number,9,1,30,3,31,3,35,3,8,1,13,1,26,3,28,3,57,1,62,1","numbers,30,1,31,1,35,1,26,1,28,1","numerical,13,2","numerous,17,1,18,1","nurie,104,1","nutrients,11,1","nwp,13,10","objective,13,1","objectives,9,3,1,4,8,2,15,2","observ,100,3,99,3,104,1","observation,9,1,11,1,8,1,14,2","observations,98,1","observed,9,1,10,1,30,1,31,3,35,3,92,3,61,1,98,1,100,1,119,9,1,1,6,1,26,3,96,1,28,1,53,1,55,1,57,3,59,1,60,1,99,1,103,1,105,2","observers,12,1","observing,98,1,119,1","oc,102,2","occasionn,104,1","occasions,57,1","occidentales,104,1","occur,30,2,31,1,35,1,54,1,26,1,28,2,57,3,58,1","occurrence,30,1,31,1,35,1,26,1,28,1","occurrences,55,1","occurring,30,5,31,5,35,5,26,6,28,5","occurs,57,1","ocean,11,1,30,5,31,6,35,6,102,1,1,1,13,1,26,7,28,5,53,1,55,1,57,9,60,2,62,5,105,7","oceanic,26,1,54,1,58,1,105,1","oceanography,1,1","oceans,11,1,30,4,31,3,35,3,26,2,28,4,57,1,105,2","ocirc,104,1","october,92,4,95,3,98,2,100,5,102,1,1,1,13,1,94,3,96,3,59,1,97,3,99,4,101,4,103,3,105,3","octobre,95,1,98,1,100,4,102,1,94,1,96,1,97,1,99,4,101,2,104,3","odinafrica,11,1","office,30,1,31,2,35,1,13,2,26,2,28,1","ogp,26,1","ohio,54,2,58,2","olr,101,1","ongoing,9,2,8,1","onset,13,1,55,1","ont,100,1,99,1,104,7","operate,1,1","operational,1,1,13,7","operationally,13,3","operations,9,1,13,1","opportunities,11,1,6,2,16,1","opposed,15,2","optimum,7,1","options,6,1,16,1","order,9,2,1,5,8,1,12,1,53,2,55,1","org,5,1,7,1,10,1,11,1,30,1,35,1,92,1,93,1,61,1,95,1,98,1,100,1,119,1,1,1,4,1,6,1,8,1,12,1,13,1,14,1,16,1,17,1,18,1,15,1,23,1,24,1,25,1,26,1,94,1,96,1,28,1,53,1,54,1,55,1,56,1,57,1,58,1,59,1,60,1,62,1,97,1,99,1,101,1,103,1,104,1,105,1,106,1,107,1","organisation,30,2,31,2,35,1,1,1,26,1,28,2","organisations,30,1,31,2,35,1,26,1,28,1","organised,30,1,31,2,35,1,1,1,26,1,28,1,53,1","organizations,5,1,11,1,30,1,35,1,119,1,1,1,4,1,6,1,23,1,24,1,25,1,26,1,28,1,53,1,106,1,107,1","organized,57,1","orientales,104,1","origin,7,1","orologiques,100,1,99,1","oscillation,13,3","osman,23,1","ouest,104,2","ouganda,104,2","outbreak,54,1,58,1","outbreaks,10,2","outgoing,101,1","outlook,30,18,31,20,35,22,92,2,93,1,61,2,95,1,98,2,100,4,119,6,1,3,6,5,13,1,24,1,25,3,26,13,94,1,96,1,28,18,53,1,54,2,55,2,56,2,57,2,58,2,59,2,60,2,62,8,97,1,99,4,101,2,103,5,104,2,105,13,106,2,107,2","outlooks,1,1,13,1,53,1","output,9,1,6,1,13,2","outputs,30,1,1,1,13,1,15,1,26,1,28,1,53,1","outreach,5,3,7,2,10,2,11,2,1,1,6,2,8,2,12,8,13,2,14,2,16,2,17,2,18,2,15,2","outside,57,1","overall,100,1,99,1,103,1","ozone,9,2,8,2","pacific,30,3,31,3,35,3,102,1,26,3,28,3,60,1,105,3","pacifique,102,1","package,13,1","paducah,54,1,58,1","page,62,1","pamphlets,12,1","par,100,1,99,1,104,5","parallel,1,1,13,1","parameters,10,1,1,1,53,1","part,95,1,98,1,119,1,26,1","participants,30,1,31,2,35,2,26,1,28,1","participate,9,2,8,1","participated,30,1,28,1","participating,1,2,53,1,62,1","partie,100,6,99,6,104,2","parties,100,1,99,1,104,3","partly,61,1","partners,7,1,9,2,10,2,31,1,35,1,1,1,6,2,8,1,12,1,13,2,17,1,18,1,26,1,62,1","partnership,7,1","partnerships,12,1","parts,30,2,31,4,35,4,92,6,61,1,95,4,98,2,119,20,1,1,13,1,17,1,18,1,26,4,94,2,96,4,28,2,55,1,56,2,57,1,59,7,62,1,97,2,103,10,105,4","past,31,1,35,1,1,2,26,2,53,2","pastoral,16,1","pastoralists,119,1,16,1","pasture,92,2,119,1,103,2","patenting,15,1","path,54,1,58,1","pattern,98,1,119,1","patterns,30,1,100,1,94,1,28,1,55,3,56,2,59,3,60,1,62,2,99,1,101,1,105,1","paulos,23,1","pcs,13,1","pdf,9,4","peak,54,1,57,2,58,1,59,4","peaked,57,1","pendant,100,1,99,1","people,54,4,58,4","per,17,2,18,2","percentages,13,1","perform,1,1","performance,92,1,100,1,55,2,57,2,62,1,99,1,119,2","period,7,1,30,4,31,1,35,1,61,1,12,1,13,2,26,3,28,4,55,1,56,1,60,1","periods,10,1","persiste,104,1","persisted,31,1,35,1,92,1,26,1,59,1,103,1","persistence,56,1","persistent,119,1","person,23,1","perspectives,104,2","petroleum,9,3,8,3","peu,100,1,99,1","phase,62,1","phenomena,11,1","physical,30,1,31,1,35,1,16,1,26,1,28,1","pilot,9,3,1,2,6,1,8,2,12,1,13,1,17,2,18,2,15,1","pipes,17,1,18,1","plan,1,1","planck,13,1","planners,1,1,53,1","planning,9,1,11,1","plans,1,1","platforms,14,1","pluie,100,1,99,1,104,5","plus,100,1,99,1,104,2","pluviom,95,1,100,5,94,1,99,5,101,1,104,3","pocket,94,1","pockets,96,1,97,1","point,9,2,8,1","policies,7,1,9,3,10,1,11,1,6,1,8,1,12,1,16,1","policy,10,1,1,1,6,1,53,1","pollutants,11,1","pollution,11,1,1,1","poor,92,1,100,2,14,1,16,1,55,2,57,1,62,2,99,2,105,1","population,17,1,18,1","populations,11,1","pose,9,1,8,1","position,57,2","positive,1,1,53,1,105,1,119,1","potential,31,1,35,1,1,1,26,1,53,1","potentials,9,1","pour,95,1,98,1,100,3,94,1,96,1,97,1,99,3,101,2,104,8,105,1","pourraient,104,1","poverty,16,1","power,9,4,8,3,13,1","pr,99,8,100,8,104,2","practices,7,1","pre,1,1,53,1","precent,57,1","predictability,16,1","predicted,30,1,31,1,35,1,26,1,28,1","prediction,9,5,10,9,11,4,30,10,31,10,35,7,92,1,93,1,61,1,98,1,1,15,4,1,5,4,6,7,7,5,8,7,12,4,13,26,14,4,16,3,17,3,18,3,15,3,23,2,24,1,25,1,26,7,94,1,95,1,96,1,28,10,53,3,54,1,55,1,56,1,57,1,58,1,59,1,60,1,62,1,97,1,99,1,100,2,101,1,103,1,104,1,105,1,106,1,107,1,119,1,2,4","predictions,11,1","preparation,9,1,6,1","preparedness,10,1,11,1,30,1,31,2,35,1,6,1,7,1,26,1,28,1","presented,62,3,99,1,100,1,103,1,119,2","presents,99,1,100,1","presley,54,2,58,2","presque,99,2,100,2,104,1","pressure,1,1,53,1,57,3,119,2","prevail,103,1,105,1","prevailed,119,1","prevailing,105,1","prevention,7,1","previous,24,1,25,5,62,1","principal,30,1,31,1,35,1,26,1,28,1","print,12,1","prioritize,9,1,8,1,15,1","priority,13,2","proactive,1,1","probabilistic,6,1","probabilities,30,2,31,1,35,1,26,1,28,2","probability,30,5,31,5,35,5,26,5,28,5","problems,11,1,14,1,16,1,17,1,18,1","process,1,1,15,1,53,1","processes,10,1,1,1,11,1","processing,1,3,13,1,14,1","proches,99,1,100,1,104,2","produced,119,1","producers,1,1,15,1","product,1,1","production,92,2,1,1,6,2,16,1,103,1,104,1","products,9,6,10,3,30,3,31,2,35,3,92,3,93,3,61,7,1,17,4,2,5,2,6,4,7,7,8,8,11,5,12,5,13,11,14,6,16,3,17,2,18,2,15,5,23,2,24,2,25,2,26,3,94,7,95,7,96,7,28,3,53,16,54,7,55,7,56,7,57,7,58,7,59,7,60,7,62,7,97,7,98,3,99,3,100,7,101,7,103,3,104,3,105,3,106,3,107,3,119,3","programme,9,2,6,1,7,1","programmes,10,2,1,2,7,1","programs,26,1","project,30,1,31,2,35,1,1,1,15,1,26,1,28,1","projected,31,3,35,3,1,1,26,2,53,1","projections,60,1","projects,9,1,1,2,6,1,8,1,12,1,13,1,17,1,18,1,15,1","prolonged,17,1,18,1","promote,10,2,6,1,15,1","prone,1,1","proper,14,1","propose,9,2,8,1","prospects,92,1","protect,11,1","protection,15,1","protocols,9,1,8,1","prototype,10,3,6,4","provide,9,2,6,1,8,2,11,1,13,3,14,1,17,1,18,1,62,1","provided,30,1,31,3,35,2,1,2,13,1,26,2,28,1,53,2,62,1,99,1,100,1","provides,13,2,62,2","providing,11,1","provision,9,4,8,2,11,1,14,1,16,1","proxies,14,1","proxy,14,1","public,1,1,7,2,12,1,92,1","publication,12,1","publications,15,2","pure,15,1","qbo,13,1","quality,9,1,1,1,8,1,14,1,17,1,18,1","quant,99,1,100,1","quantified,6,1","quantit,104,5","quantity,14,1","quartile,98,2","quasi,13,1","quatorial,99,1,100,1,104,2","que,99,1,100,1,104,5","quelques,104,1","quence,104,2","quences,99,1,100,1","quest,14,1","qui,99,2,100,2,104,4","quite,55,1","racing,54,1,58,1","radars,14,1","radiation,101,1","rain,6,1,101,4","rainbands,57,1","rainfall,9,3,10,1,30,24,31,26,35,26,93,3,118,1,1,1,8,3,13,3,14,1,17,2,18,2,26,27,94,7,95,10,96,3,28,24,53,1,55,6,56,2,57,4,59,28,60,1,62,13,92,5,97,3,98,2,99,9,100,9,101,6,103,11,104,2,105,6,106,2,107,2,119,25","rains,55,1,57,1,62,1,119,1","raise,7,1","ralement,104,1","rampant,10,1","ranet,12,1","range,30,1,13,3,16,1,28,1,57,2,59,1,103,1","ranges,54,1,58,1","ranging,54,1,58,1,103,1,119,1","ranked,98,1","rapidly,54,1,58,1","raquo,10,11,30,25,35,25,93,3,61,8,1,24,4,20,5,29,6,29,7,11,8,11,11,11,12,11,13,11,14,11,16,11,17,11,15,11,18,11,23,20,24,19,25,25,26,25,94,4,95,4,96,4,28,25,53,21,54,8,55,8,56,8,57,8,58,8,59,8,60,8,62,8,92,8,97,4,98,8,99,8,100,8,101,8,103,8,104,8,105,8,106,27,107,27,119,25","ratified,1,1","rature,102,1,96,1,97,1","rayonnement,101,1","rcmrd,31,2,35,1","rcms,13,1","rdquo,30,1,35,1,1,1,26,1,28,1,57,1","reach,9,1,8,1","reached,57,1","reaching,7,1,26,1,62,1,99,1,100,1","real,1,1,13,1","recalled,31,1,35,1,26,1","receive,59,1,62,1,92,1,103,1,119,2","received,14,1,94,2,95,3,59,1,99,1,100,1,103,2,119,5","receiving,59,1,62,1,103,2,119,1","recent,61,2,1,1,53,1,54,2,55,2,56,2,57,3,58,2,59,11,60,2,62,2","recently,1,1,53,1","recognised,31,1,35,1","recommended,1,1","reconstruction,7,1","record,61,1","recorded,30,2,31,2,35,2,26,2,94,1,28,2,59,8,97,2,103,2,105,1,119,1","recording,59,1","records,1,1,98,1","recueilli,99,1,100,1,104,1","recueillir,104,1","recur,10,1","redso,1,1","reduce,9,2,10,1,6,1,7,2,8,2,12,1,15,1","reducing,54,1,58,1,60,1","reduction,7,2,57,1","reefs,11,3","ref,119,1","reference,1,1","referred,30,1,1,1,26,1,28,1","refers,30,1,31,1,35,1,26,1,28,1","reflect,1,1","reflected,56,1,59,1","reforestation,9,1,8,1","regard,1,1","regimes,59,1","region,9,6,10,1,30,6,31,6,35,6,61,1,1,8,6,2,7,2,8,5,13,3,14,3,16,2,17,1,15,2,18,1,26,7,96,2,28,6,53,2,56,2,57,3,59,6,60,1,62,2,92,6,97,1,99,2,100,2,101,2,103,4,104,1,105,2,119,2","regional,9,7,10,2,30,2,31,4,35,3,1,9,6,4,7,4,8,3,11,1,12,1,13,8,14,1,16,2,17,1,15,1,18,1,26,3,28,2,53,1,60,1,62,1","regions,55,1,57,1,105,1","regular,9,1,6,3,57,1,62,1","rehabilitation,7,1","related,9,10,10,6,1,3,6,2,7,5,8,1,11,3,15,1,92,1,103,1,119,1","relations,1,1","relationships,13,1","relatively,30,1,31,1,35,1,26,1,28,1,61,1,62,1","released,62,1","relevant,9,3,30,1,31,1,35,1,6,2,7,3,8,2,13,1,17,1,15,4,18,1,26,1,28,1","relief,7,1,92,2,103,1","rely,6,1","remain,62,1,119,2","remote,10,2,1,1,5,3,6,2,7,2,8,2,11,2,12,2,13,2,14,10,16,2,17,2,15,2,18,2","remotely,1,1","renamed,57,1","renewable,9,18,8,7,17,1,18,1","report,9,2","reported,97,1","reports,9,1,6,1,15,2","representatives,30,1,31,2,35,1,26,1,28,1","republic,31,2,35,1,26,1","require,9,1,10,1,8,1","required,9,3,6,1,7,4,8,2,13,2,14,1,17,1,15,1,18,1","requirements,13,1","requires,13,1","rescources,17,4","rescue,7,1","research,30,2,31,2,35,1,1,5,5,3,6,2,7,2,8,2,10,2,11,4,12,2,13,4,14,2,16,2,17,2,15,26,18,2,26,1,28,2,53,1","residents,54,1,58,1","residues,9,1,8,1","resolution,13,1","resource,1,1,17,2,18,2,53,1","resources,9,9,31,1,35,1,1,1,5,5,6,3,7,3,8,8,10,3,11,16,12,3,13,4,14,7,16,6,17,9,15,3,18,13,26,1,56,1","respective,30,1,31,1,35,1,26,1,28,1","respectively,99,1,100,1,119,2","respectivement,99,1,100,1","respond,6,1,11,1","responsible,1,1","rest,62,1,103,1,105,1,119,1","reste,104,1","result,99,1,100,1","resulted,103,1","resulting,95,2,59,1,103,3,119,3","results,9,1,1,1,8,1,14,1,15,1,2,4","resume,104,1","retard,7,1","review,15,1","reviewed,30,1,31,1,35,1,26,1,28,1","rfe,17,1,18,1","ridge,119,1","ridges,119,1","rieures,104,2","rift,6,1,10,2","rigueur,98,1","ring,57,1","riode,95,1,104,1,105,1","ripped,54,1,58,1","risk,9,4,1,1,7,5,8,2,10,2,11,1,16,1,17,1,18,1","risks,6,1,7,3,15,1","river,11,1,54,2,58,2","robust,14,1","rocky,11,1","rolled,54,1,58,1","rotating,57,1","rouge,101,1","roughly,57,2","rs6000,13,1","rsm,13,4","rsquo,1,1,6,1,11,1,13,1,15,1,95,1,57,1,99,6,100,6,104,12","rubble,54,1,58,1","run,1,1,13,3,53,1","running,13,1","runs,13,1","rural,12,1","rvf,6,1,10,1","rwanda,30,5,31,4,35,4,1,1,4,1,5,1,6,1,23,3,24,1,25,1,26,6,28,5,53,1,62,1,92,1,103,1,104,1,105,1,106,1,107,1,119,2","rwanda1,23,1","rwandatel1,23,1","ryan,54,1,58,1","saad,23,1","safety,9,1,8,1,92,1","sahara,119,1","said,23,1,54,2,58,2","saisonniers,99,1,100,1","salaam,23,1","same,14,1,15,2,57,1","sand,11,1","sandy,11,1","satellite,1,1,14,2,92,1","satellites,14,1","save,31,1,35,1","sayem,23,1","scale,16,1,54,1,57,1,58,1","scales,30,1,31,1,35,1,1,4,13,1,26,1,28,1,53,3","scarce,92,1","scarcity,17,1,18,1","scenarios,9,4,8,3,55,3","scheduled,13,1","science,31,2,35,1,1,1","scientific,1,1","scientists,9,1,30,1,31,2,35,1,1,1,12,1,26,1,28,1","sd,23,1","sea,30,1,31,2,35,2,1,1,11,1,13,1,26,3,28,1,53,1,54,2,55,3,56,2,57,4,58,2,59,2,60,9,61,2,62,2,105,2","search,30,1,35,1,17,1,18,1,2,8","searchresult,3,8","season,30,2,31,6,35,6,1,2,6,1,16,1,26,6,95,1,28,2,53,2,54,1,57,3,58,1,59,1,62,4","seasonal,9,2,30,3,31,3,35,4,1,4,6,1,8,1,12,1,13,4,26,4,24,1,25,1,28,3,53,4,62,1,99,1,100,1","seasonality,59,1","seasons,9,1,31,1,35,1,8,1,13,3,26,1,59,1","sec,104,1","second,119,1","secondary,59,1","secteur,99,1,100,1,104,8","section,7,2,12,2,13,1,23,1,99,5,100,5,101,1,103,1,119,2","sections,62,2,99,1,100,1","sector,9,37,1,1,6,2,8,17,10,3,11,3,13,1,16,1,17,1,18,1,94,4,95,5,96,2,57,1,59,12,62,1,97,1,98,2,99,1,100,1,103,8,119,17","sectoral,1,3,53,1","sectorial,14,1","sectors,30,2,31,2,35,2,1,2,7,2,14,5,16,5,15,2,26,2,28,2,53,1,59,5,60,1,61,1,92,1,97,1,119,2","security,30,1,31,10,35,8,1,1,6,13,12,1,26,1,28,1,56,1,92,1","see,30,1,31,1,35,1,26,1,28,1,55,2,59,1,60,1,62,1","seem,57,1","select,24,1","selected,118,5,56,1,105,1","semi,31,1,35,1,6,2,26,1","sensed,1,1","sensing,1,1,5,3,6,2,7,2,8,2,10,2,11,2,12,2,13,2,14,9,16,2,17,2,15,2,18,2","sensitive,7,2,10,2","sensitized,9,1","sent,99,2,100,2","september,31,9,35,8,26,4,57,1,59,1,101,2,103,2,105,1","septembre,104,2","septentrionale,104,1","septentrionales,104,1","series,118,1","serious,9,1,8,1,16,1","serve,1,1,53,1","service,31,2,35,1,26,1,23,1,54,1,58,1","services,30,9,31,11,35,7,1,5,13,1,26,7,23,7,28,9,53,1,62,1,119,1","set,13,1","setting,14,1","settlement,92,1","seven,99,1,100,1","several,9,2,31,2,35,2,7,1,8,2,14,2,26,1,54,1,56,1,57,2,58,1,61,1,105,1","severe,1,1,16,1,56,1,57,1","severity,93,1,1,1,92,2,94,1,95,1,96,1,53,1,97,1,98,10,99,2,100,2,101,3,103,2,104,2,105,2,106,2,107,2,119,2","shaded,57,1","shall,10,1,16,1","shirimanga,23,1","shoreline,11,1","shores,11,1","short,30,1,31,1,35,1,26,1,28,1,119,1","shortages,9,1,8,1","should,30,3,31,2,35,2,26,2,28,3","show,96,1","shown,56,1,57,1,105,1","shows,95,1,57,1,98,1,119,2","shrubs,9,1,8,1","significant,1,1,17,1,18,1,53,1,57,1,59,1,62,1,105,1","significantly,11,1,57,1","siltation,9,1,8,1","simple,9,2,8,1","since,14,1,54,2,58,2","single,1,1,53,1,54,1,58,1","sirens,54,1,58,1","situ,14,3,104,1","situation,30,1,31,1,35,1,26,1,28,1,99,1,100,1,104,1,119,1","sixteenth,31,4,35,3","size,57,1","skilful,13,1","skill,13,2","skilled,13,1","skills,6,1,13,1,16,1","slept,54,1,58,1","smith,54,1,58,1","societal,12,1,56,1","society,6,1","socio,9,1,1,3,7,1,8,1,16,1,15,2,92,3,53,2,59,1,62,2,99,4,100,4,119,3","software,13,1","soils,11,1","solar,9,7,8,4","somalia,30,4,31,8,35,8,1,1,4,1,5,1,6,1,26,6,23,3,24,1,25,1,92,2,28,4,53,1,62,2,103,1,105,1,106,1,107,1,119,5","somalie,104,1","sometimes,30,1,7,1,28,1,57,2","sond,31,1,35,1","sont,99,2,100,2","soudan,104,1","sound,1,1,14,1","sounded,54,1,58,1","source,9,2,8,2,13,1,57,3","sources,9,3,8,3,14,1","sous,99,1,100,1,104,4","south,31,2,35,2,26,1,54,1,57,1,58,1,60,1","southeast,57,1","southeastern,30,1,26,1,28,1","southern,30,9,31,8,35,8,1,2,13,1,26,8,92,4,94,2,95,1,96,1,28,9,59,8,60,1,62,4,97,1,103,12,105,7,119,13","southwest,57,2","southwestern,31,2,30,4,35,2,26,2,28,4,55,1,57,5,105,1","space,1,1,17,1,18,1,59,1,62,1","spatial,31,1,30,1,35,1,13,1,14,1,26,1,28,1,59,1,98,1,119,2","spatially,14,1","special,9,1,8,1","specialized,1,2","specific,9,6,102,1,1,1,6,1,7,2,8,4,12,1,13,2,16,2,14,1,15,3,55,1,57,1,62,1","spectral,1,1,13,2,53,1","spells,13,1","spiral,57,3","splinters,54,1,58,1","spots,54,1,99,1,100,1,119,3","src,9,4","sst,31,1,30,2,35,1,102,6,26,1,28,2,60,1,62,4,105,4","ssts,31,2,30,2,35,2,11,1,26,2,28,2,57,1,60,6,62,1,105,3","stability,16,1","stabilize,11,1","stakeholders,6,1,7,1,12,1","state,31,1,30,1,35,1,1,4,26,1,28,1,53,3","statement,31,1,30,6,35,6,26,5,24,3,25,1,28,6","statements,25,1","states,31,2,30,1,35,1,13,1,14,2,26,1,28,1,54,1,58,1","stations,118,5,56,1,101,1","statistical,31,1,30,1,35,1,1,3,13,8,26,1,28,1,53,1,60,1","statistics,1,1,13,2","status,31,1,30,1,28,1","stephen,23,1","still,9,1,8,1,13,1","stocks,11,1","storage,15,1","storm,11,2","storms,11,1","story,30,2,35,2,93,2,4,1,5,1,26,2,23,2,24,1,25,2,28,2,106,2,107,2","strains,6,1,10,1","strategic,1,1","strategies,31,1,35,1,6,1,12,1,26,1,62,1","strategy,9,8,6,1,10,1,16,1,17,1,18,1","stream,17,1,18,1","streamflow,17,1,18,1","strengthen,9,3,8,1,10,1","strengthening,17,1,15,1,18,1","stress,54,2,55,2,56,11,57,2,58,2,59,2,60,2,61,2,62,2,99,2,100,2,119,1","stresses,56,1","strong,57,1,59,1","stronger,54,1,58,1","strongest,54,1,58,1","strongly,31,1,30,1,35,1,26,1,28,1","struck,54,1,58,1","studies,9,2,8,1","sub,31,5,30,6,35,5,1,7,10,1,16,1,14,3,26,6,92,4,96,2,28,6,56,2,59,4,61,1,62,2,97,1,99,1,100,1,101,2,103,3,105,2,119,1","subjected,55,1","subobjective,9,1","substantial,62,1,103,1","substantially,11,1","successful,12,1,13,1","successfully,1,1","sud,104,3","sudan,31,6,30,7,35,6,1,3,4,1,5,1,6,1,26,10,23,4,24,1,25,1,92,1,28,7,53,1,62,1,103,1,105,1,106,1,107,1,119,4","sudanmail,23,1","sufficient,31,1,35,1,26,1","suggested,31,1,35,1,26,1","suggestions,30,1,35,1,93,1,1,1,4,1,5,1,6,1,7,1,8,1,10,1,11,1,12,1,13,1,16,1,17,1,14,1,15,1,26,1,18,1,23,1,24,1,25,1,92,1,94,1,95,1,96,1,28,1,53,1,54,1,55,1,56,1,57,1,58,1,59,1,60,1,61,1,62,1,97,1,98,1,99,1,100,1,101,1,103,1,104,1,105,1,106,1,107,1,119,1","suite,99,1,100,1","suivants,104,1","summaries,9,1,1,1,6,1,53,1","summary,31,1,30,3,35,3,93,1,26,2,25,1,92,3,94,1,95,1,96,1,28,3,59,1,97,1,98,3,99,4,100,4,101,4,103,13,104,11,105,3,106,3,107,3,119,2","summer,54,1,58,1,59,2","summit,1,3","sunday,54,2,58,2","super,1,1,13,6,53,1","supplement,14,1","supplied,30,1,28,1","supply,119,1","support,9,3,6,2,7,1,8,2,11,1,13,1,14,2","supports,11,1","sur,102,1,99,3,100,3,104,3","surface,31,2,30,1,35,2,102,1,1,2,13,1,26,3,28,1,53,2,54,2,55,2,56,2,57,5,58,2,59,2,60,9,61,2,62,2,105,1","surges,11,1","surrounded,57,1","surtout,99,1,100,1,104,1","sustainable,31,2,30,2,35,2,1,1,17,1,26,2,18,1,28,2","sustained,119,1","swath,54,1,58,1","synoptic,105,1","syst,99,1,100,1","system,31,1,30,1,35,1,1,2,13,2,17,1,26,1,18,1,28,1,57,1","systems,9,2,6,1,8,2,17,1,14,2,15,1,18,1,99,1,100,1,105,2","taient,104,1","tail,104,2","tails,99,1,100,1","tait,99,1,100,1","take,1,1,7,1,13,1","taken,31,1,30,1,35,1,1,1,26,1,28,1,62,1","tandis,104,1","tanzania,9,1,31,6,30,7,35,6,1,1,4,1,5,1,6,1,8,1,26,7,23,5,24,1,25,1,92,2,28,7,53,1,62,2,103,2,105,2,106,1,107,1,119,3","tanzanian,31,1,35,1","tanzanie,104,2","technical,1,1,12,2,15,1","technique,23,1","techniques,1,1,13,5,16,2,53,1","technologies,13,2","technology,31,2,35,1,13,1,17,1,18,1","tel,30,1,35,1,1,1,4,1,5,1,6,1,7,1,8,1,10,1,11,1,12,1,13,1,16,1,17,1,14,1,15,1,26,1,18,1,23,12,24,1,25,1,92,1,93,1,94,1,95,1,96,1,28,1,53,1,54,1,55,1,56,1,57,1,58,1,59,1,60,1,61,1,62,1,97,1,98,1,99,1,100,1,101,1,103,1,104,1,105,1,106,1,107,1,119,1","telecom,23,1","telex,30,1,35,1,1,1,4,1,5,1,6,1,7,1,8,1,10,1,11,1,12,1,13,1,16,1,17,1,14,1,15,1,26,1,18,1,23,9,24,1,25,1,92,1,93,1,94,1,95,1,96,1,28,1,53,1,54,1,55,1,56,1,57,1,58,1,59,1,60,1,61,1,62,1,97,1,98,1,99,1,100,1,101,1,103,1,104,1,105,1,106,1,107,1,119,1","temp,102,1,96,1,60,4,61,4,97,1","temperature,30,1,1,2,10,1,13,1,93,4,94,2,95,2,96,6,28,1,53,2,54,3,55,3,56,3,57,3,58,3,59,3,60,4,61,9,62,3,97,5","temperatures,31,2,35,2,13,1,26,3,54,1,55,1,56,1,57,3,58,1,59,1,60,3,61,1,62,1,97,1,105,1","temporal,31,1,30,1,35,1,13,1,26,1,28,1","temps,105,1","tenday,119,1","tendencies,60,1","tendency,60,1","term,94,3,95,3,59,9","terme,99,1,100,1","terms,9,1,8,1","test,6,1","testing,10,1,15,1","theoretical,15,1","thereby,14,1,57,1","therefore,31,1,30,1,35,1,7,1,12,1,13,1,26,1,28,1,62,1","thermique,101,1","third,31,3,30,3,35,3,26,3,28,3,55,1,61,1,98,1","those,13,1,98,1,103,1","threat,9,1,8,1","threats,6,2,11,1,16,1","three,31,2,30,2,35,2,1,1,26,2,93,1,94,1,95,1,96,1,28,2,57,2,59,1,97,1,103,1","thresholds,6,1","through,9,2,1,7,6,1,7,1,8,1,10,1,11,4,12,1,13,1,17,1,18,1,53,2,54,3,58,3","throughout,14,1,60,1,62,1","thunderstorms,54,1,58,1","tidal,9,2,8,1","time,9,1,31,1,30,1,35,1,1,5,13,2,15,1,26,1,28,1,53,3,57,1,59,2,62,2","timely,9,3,1,4,7,1,8,2,12,2,13,1,55,1","tmet,23,1","todate,15,1","together,31,1,30,1,35,1,1,2,6,1,16,1,26,1,28,1,53,1,60,1,62,1,99,1,100,1,103,1","too,9,3,8,3,119,2","tool,14,2","tools,9,5,6,1,8,3,13,1,17,1,14,1,15,1,18,1","top,31,1,30,7,35,2,1,6,6,1,7,1,8,1,10,1,11,1,12,1,13,1,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arrFiles=new Array();arrFiles[0]=new Array(1,"index.html","2005-12-01","ICPAC: BACKGROUND","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Background Main Objectives | Mission of ICPAC | Core Programmes | ICPAC Products | Major Achievements | »Background »Products »Forecasts »Applications »Activities »Contact Info Links to ICPAC Countries »Burundi »Djibouti »Eritrea »Ethiopia »Kenya »Rwanda »Sudan »Somalia »Tanzania »Uganda Links to other organizations »KMD »WMO »UNDP »ABM »IRI - USA »CPC - USA »DMCH »ACMAD Impacts News & Upcoming Events The Horn of Africa , like many other parts of the tropics, are prone to extreme climate events such as droughts and floods. These extreme events have severe negative impacts on key socio-economic sectors of all the countries in the sub-region. In an effort to minimise the negative impacts of extreme climate events and take advantage of the good years, 24 countries in the eastern and southern African sub-region under the auspices of WMO and UNDP established a regional Drought Monitoring Centre (DMC) in Nairobi and a sub-centre in Harare in 1989. At the end of the UNDP funded Project in 1998 and due to the increased demand for climate information and prediction services, the Nairobi and Harare components now operate independently and are referred to as the Drought Monitoring Centre, Nairobi (DMCN) and the Drought Monitoring Centre, Harare (DMCH) . DMCN caters for countries in IGAD and other countries in the Horn of Africa region, while DMCH is responsible for countries in southern Africa. The 10th Summit of the IGAD Heads of State and Government that was held in Kampala, Uganda in October 2003 ratified the decision of the 8th Summit that was held in Khartoum, Sudan in November 2000 to absorb DMCN as an autonomous specialized Institution of IGAD . The science and implementation plans for DMCN was completed in 2003 through USAID /REDSO funding that was executed under the auspices of FEWSNET . The strategic plan recommended the change of name of DMCN to IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) in order to reflect better all its new mandates, mission and objectives within the IGAD system.	«top Main Objectives Three parallel objectives, which, taken together capture ICPAC’s capacity to perform sound scientific work and apply the results through collaboration with an expanding and educated base of users. To improve the technical capacity of producers and users of climatic information, in order to enhance the input to and use of climate monitoring and forecasting products; To develop an improved, proactive, timely, broad-based system of information and product dissemination and feedback, at both sub-regional and national scales through national partners; To expand the knowledge base within the sub-region in order to facilitate informed decision making, through a clearer understanding of climatic and climate-related processes, enhanced research and development, and a well managed reference archive of data and information products. «top Mission of ICPAC “ Fostering sub-regional and national capacity for climate information, prediction products and services, early warning, and related applications for sustainable development in the IGAD Sub-Region ” «top Core Programmes Computer Services and Data Management Data Management and Processing Computer Services Computer Applications Climate Diagnostics, Prediction and Climatology Climate Monitoring, Information and Products Climate diagnostics and statistical prediction Dynamical climate Modeling and Prediction Climate Applications Remote Sensing and GIS Hydrology, water resources Agriculture , Livestock and Food Security Disaster management Health Energy , Industry, Construction and Communications Urban climate and air pollution Oceanography Climate change and Desertification Documentation, Research and Development Applied Research and Development Capacity Building Documentation and Library End-User Liaison Outreach , User relations and feedback Gender and Youth Operational activities Development and archiving of regional and national quality controlled databanks. Calibration of satellite derived climate records. Data processing including development of basic climatological statistics. Timely acquisition of near real time climate and remotely sensed data. Monitoring space-time evolutions of weather and climate extremes over the region. Generation of Climate Prediction and Early warning products. Delineation of risk zones of the extreme climate events. Networking with the NMHSs and regional and international centres for data and information exchange. Timely dissemination of early warning products. Public awareness and education of sectoral users of meteorological products. Development of sector specific climate information and prediction products. Organisation of Climate Outlook Forums Interactions with users through regional and national users workshops and pilot application projects, etc. Climate change monitoring, detection and attribution. Assessment of the impacts and vulnerability associated with climate extremes. Research in climate and related fields. «top The ICPAC products Monitoring of past climate: The recent past climate over the Horn of Africa is monitored on a dekadal (ten day), monthly and seasonal time scales in order to detect the evolution of any significant anomalies that could impact negatively on the socio - economic activities of the region. These are provided through; Dekadal, monthly and seasonal summaries of rainfall and drought severity. Monthly temperature anomalies . Current State of Climate The current state of climate is monitored and assessed using climate diagnostics and modelling techniques. These are derived from information on the state of the Sea Surface temperature anomalies over all the major ocean basins, surface and upper air anomalies of pressure, winds and other climate parameters. Prediction products These are derived from statistical models run at the centre and dynamical model outputs from advanced centres on a dekadal, monthly and seasonal time scales. The Centre has recently acquired a super computer to enhance its dynamical modelling capability and is in the process of calibrating a regional spectral climate model for the Horn of Africa that will be implemented in the near future. The prediction products are provided through outlooks for a dekad, month and season. Consensus pre-season climate outlook fora which are also organised in conjunction with the major climate centres world-wide in order to derive a single consensus forecast for the region. Impacts An assessment of the vulnerability together with the current and potential socio-economic conditions and impacts (both negative and positive) associated with the observed and projected climate anomalies is also made on a dekadal, monthly and seasonal time scales. These products are disseminated to all National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of the participating countries to serve as early warning information to a variety of sectoral users of meteorological information and products including policy makers, planners, health, energy, agricultural and water resource sectors, farmers as well as research institutions among others. «top Major Achievements Creation of a climate data bank that is constantly updated. Capacity building in data processing, climate monitoring & modelling, and prediction. Upgrading of ICPAC computing facilities Improved regional climate modelling and prediction capacity. Uninterrupted and timely production and dissemination of early warning information. Enhanced collaboration between NMHSs of the participating countries especially in the area of data exchange. Collaboration between ICPAC, NMHSs and advanced regional diagnostics Centres has been enhanced especially with regard to climate modeling and prediction capabilities. Climate capacity building workshops, Capacity building users \' workshops and climate outlook forums have been successfully held. Enhanced capacity of NMHSs in statistical modelling for diagnostic analysis and prediction. Enhanced computing capacity of the NMHSs. Close collaboration between climate scientists and users of climate information has been fostered. Pilot application projects have been initiated with some sectoral users. IGAD summit held in Khartoum, Sudan in November 2000, established the DMCN as a specialized Institution of IGAD. «top [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",21);arrFiles[1]=new Array(2,"search.html","2005-12-01","IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION & APPLICATIONS CENTRE SEARCH RESULTS","","","",1);arrFiles[2]=new Array(3,"searchresult.html","2005-12-01","searchresult.html","","","",1);arrFiles[3]=new Array(4,"Activities/activities.html","2005-12-01","ICPAC: ACTIVITIES","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Activities & Events Coming Workshops & Training | Calendar of Activities | »Coming Workshops & Training »Calendar of Activities Links to ICPAC Countries »Burundi »Djibouti »Eritrea »Ethiopia »Kenya »Rwanda »Sudan »Somalia »Tanzania »Uganda Links to other organizations »KMD »WMO »UNDP »ABM »IRI - USA »CPC - USA »DMCH »ACMAD Impacts News & Upcoming Events Headline full story... [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",8);arrFiles[4]=new Array(5,"Applications/applications.html","2005-12-01","ICPAC: APPLICATIONS","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Applications Outreach | Health | Tourism & Wildlife | Water Resources | Energy | Disaster Management | Agriculture | Marine & Coastal | Prediction | Remote Sensing & GIS | Research & Development | »Outreach »Health »Tourism & Wildlife »Water Resources »Energy »Disaster Management »Agriculture »Marine & Coastal Resources »Prediction & Early Warning »Remote Sensing & GIS »Research & Development Links to ICPAC Countries »Burundi »Djibouti »Eritrea »Ethiopia »Kenya »Rwanda »Sudan »Somalia »Tanzania »Uganda Links to other organizations »KMD »WMO »UNDP »ABM »IRI - USA »CPC - USA »DMCH »ACMAD Impacts News & Upcoming Events Headline full story... Applications at ICPAC are: Outreach Health Tourism & Wildlife Water Resources Energy Disaster Management Agriculture Marine & Coastal Resources Prediction & Early warning Remote Sensing & GIS Research & Development [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",11);arrFiles[5]=new Array(6,"Applications/agriculture/agriculture.html","2005-12-01","ICPAC: APPLICATIONS - AGRICULTURE","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Applications Outreach | Health | Tourism & Wildlife | Water Resources | Energy | Disaster Management | Agriculture | Marine & Coastal | Prediction | Remote Sensing & GIS | Research & Development | »Outreach »Health »Tourism & Wildlife »Water Resources »Energy »Disaster Management »Agriculture »Marine & Coastal Resources »Prediction & Early Warning »Remote Sensing & GIS »Research & Development Links to ICPAC Countries »Kenya »Uganda »Tanzania »Djibouti »Eritrea »Ethiopia »Sudan »Somalia »Rwanda »Burundi Links to other organizations »KMD »WMO »UNDP »ABM »IRI - USA »CPC - USA »DMCH »ACMAD AGRICULTURE , LIVESTOCK AND FOOD SECURITY DEPARTMENT The economy of most ICPAC member countries rely on rain fed agriculture that is highly vulnerable to extreme weather and climate events such as floods and droughts. The main goal of the agriculture department is to collaborate with relevant agricultural institutions to provide climate information and early warning in support of society livelihood in the region and the IGAD agriculture programme. The strategy for enhanced application of climate in the agriculture, livestock and food security sector includes: 1)	Improved linkages and interactions between climate and agriculture/livestock/food security experts Create awareness on factoring of climate information and early warning products in national and regional agriculture and livestock management policies Enhance preparedness in the to respond to the expected climate opportunities and threats Promote use of climate information to address the issues of food security including policy making Regular preparation of summaries on impacts of observed climate conditions on food security 2)	Together with partners make effort towards the development of prototype disease and forage prediction models. Downscale climate information required by the agriculture, livestock and food security sector Calibrate agro-climate downscaling models FACT-FIT, UON-ICPAC model work with partners in the development of prototype animal disease (RVF etc) prediction models . Finalise and test the prototype Rift Valley Fever disease prediction model. Develop forage prediction model by use of NDVI data. Establish links of emmerging livestock diseases and new diseases strains related to climate change Develop prototype climate information products, decision tools and educational materials to support adaptive decision making by relevant stakeholders 3)	Enhance the translation of probabilistic climate outlook developed by the regional climate outlook forum into regional food security outlook risks. Develop climate related crop thresholds for arid and semi-arid areas and quantified skills of the food security outlook Hold regular food security outlook forum FSOF and develop regular seasonal consensus food security reports Develop farm-level adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate variability on agriculture production, Integrate data and knowledge on household economies and livelihoods in food security early warning analysis into regional food security early warning systems 4)	Build capacity in climate, agriculture, livestock and food security experts through users’ specific workshops and pilot application projects. Improve understanding of the impacts of climate variability on key agricultural production areas including input/output markets and vulnerable areas in the region such as arid and semi arid areas. Identify appropriate management options to capitalize on opportunities and threats based on advance information about the forthcoming season «top [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",14);arrFiles[6]=new Array(7,"Applications/disaster_management/disaster_management.html","2005-12-01","ICPAC: APPLICATIONS - DISASTER MANAGEMENT","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Applications Outreach | Health | Tourism & Wildlife | Water Resources | Energy | Disaster Management | Agriculture | Marine & Coastal | Prediction | Remote Sensing & GIS | Research & Development | »Outreach »Health »Tourism & Wildlife »Water Resources »Energy »Disaster Management »Agriculture »Marine & Coastal Resources »Prediction & Early Warning »Remote Sensing & GIS »Research & Development DISASTER MANAGEMENT Most of the disasters of natural origin in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) are climate related. The climate related disasters often have far reaching socio-economic implications in the region and some of them sometimes retard national economic grown backwards by several years. Optimum use of climate information and early warning products can be used to reduce the negative impacts of climate extremes and take maximum advantage of the good years. Climate information can also be used to improve crucial decisions required in all the components of an integrated disaster management namely early warning, prevention, mitigation, preparedness, relief and rescue, rehabilitation and reconstruction. The major goal of this section therefore is to enhance the capacity of all climate sensitive sectors and general livelihoods in GHA to reduce climate related risks through enhanced use of climate information, prediction and early warning products. The major activities of the section during the period 2005 – 2010 include: Contribute to the IGAD disaster risk management programme. Develop climate data / information base required for risk mapping and assessment Development of the specific products required by disaster management institutions Develop framework for timely availability and dissemination of climate information and prediction / early warning products required by specific sectors, stakeholders and the public. Multi disciplinary capacity building of the relevant national and regional public institutions in partnership with relevant disaster management institutions. Support the integration of climate information and products in the national / regional disaster risk reduction initiatives and policies. Enhance regional / national capacity in Risk / vulnerability zoning and assessments. Raise awareness on how to cope with climate related risks. Education and awareness on how to live with climate related risks. Develop and implement new training programmes / curriculum on various aspects of disaster management. Sensitive and work with other partners to demonstrate some of the good traditional environment and disaster management practices in the region. Collaborations with all relevant national, regional and international bodies working on various environmental and disaster risk reduction challenges. «top [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",11);arrFiles[7]=new Array(8,"Applications/energy/energy.html","2005-12-01","ICPAC: APPLICATIONS - ENERGY","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Applications Outreach | Health | Tourism & Wildlife | Water Resources | Energy | Disaster Management | Agriculture | Marine & Coastal | Prediction | Remote Sensing & GIS | Research & Development | »Outreach »Health »Tourism & Wildlife »Water Resources »Energy »Disaster Management »Agriculture »Marine & Coastal Resources »Prediction & Early Warning »Remote Sensing & GIS »Research & Development Energy Sector Energy is the driving engine of socio-economic growth for all nations. It has been documented that GHA region is endowed with abundant renewable energy resources such as biomass, solar, wind and hydroelectricity. Biomass in the form of fuelwood, charcoal, and agricultural residues is the most dorminant source of energy in the region. However, the cutting down of trees and shrubs, the burning charcoal and the clearance of land for cultivation have led to serious fuelwood shortages, deforestation, land degradation and desertification. Hydropower is also another major source of energy for most countries within the GHA region. Hydropower is however highly vulnerable to fluctuations in rainfall in that too little rainfall leads to drought while too much leads to floods. The consequence of drought is low water levels in the dams for electrical power generation leading to huge economic losses and negative economic development of a nation. On the other hand, too much rainfall can lead to floods that pose threat to dam breakages and siltation. A number of countries in the GHA region still depend on fossil based fuels for energy generation. These fuels have been associated with greenhouse gas emission and environmental degradation that have been linked to ozone depletion and climate change including global warming. The issue of global warming has been a major concern worldwide leading to formulation of several international conventions including the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the UNCCD , UNCB and several protocols on ozone depletion. Climate extremes have both direct and indirect impacts on all energy sources, e.g. increased demand for power during cold seasons; safety of distribution systems for petroleum products; quality and availability of biomass among others. The major goal of this division is to provide regional climate information required in the energy sector. To improve the understanding of the linkages between climate variability and the Energy Sector. The Specific objectives include: Explore ways of developing decision support tools that would enhance the utilization of climate information and prediction products into the energy sector. Enhance the use of downscaled climate prediction products with special emphasis on the energy sector. Examine ways in which climate prediction and early warning products can reach the energy sector in a timely manner through sector specific early warning systems. Examine ways in which climate observation and monitoring in support of relevant renewable energy activities can be enhanced. Develop scenarios of future climate change and examine how these would impact on the energy sector. Encourage the use of alternative renewable energy sources such as wind and solar to reduce the dependency on hydro and petroleum products. The activities for this division that are in line with the above objectives include: Identify and prioritize the renewable energy resources in the region that require immediate attention in terms of assessment, mapping, development and management of these resources. Monitoring of specific climate hazards and provision of timely early warning for the energy sector. Provision of climate information required for risk assessment within the energy sector. Working with national focal point energy experts in order to improve climate related tools for energy management and development. Conducting workshops aimed at building the capacity of the regional energy experts to be able to downscale and interpret seasonal climate information relevant for the sector. Education and awareness creation within the sector on the linkages between climate and the use of renewable energy resources. Strengthen the development of regional climate scenarios for energy impact assessment. Develop simple prediction tools for early warning and risk assessment for use in the power sector based on the ongoing pilot studies. Extend the results of hydropower pilot projects for application in other countries such as Tanzania, Ethiopia and Uganda among others. Provide climate information to the forestry department for the management of forests including reforestation Participate with international partners in combating desertification. Propose the development of sector specific policies that would encourage factoring of climate information in the management of disasters within the energy sector as well as enhance the use of renewable energy resources such as wind, solar and tidal energy. Examine the impact of extreme climate on the sector and develop scenarios of future climate change and examine how these would impact on the energy sector. Encourage the use of alternative renewable energy sources such as wind, solar and biogas to reduce the dependency on hydro and petroleum products. «top [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",15);arrFiles[8]=new Array(9,"Applications/energy/energy.pdf","2005-08-04","ICPAC Strategy in addressing the challenges related to the application of climate in the energy sector","","","ICPAC Strategy in addressing the challenges related to the application of climate in the energy sector  Energy Sector  Energy is the driving engine of socio-economic growth for all nations. It has been documented that GHA region is endowed with abundant renewable energy resources such as biomass, solar, wind and hydroelectricity. Biomass in the form of fuelwood, charcoal, and agricultural residues is the most dorminant source of energy in the region. However, the cutting down of trees and shrubs, the burning charcoal and the clearance of land for cultivation have led to serious fuelwood shortages, deforestation, land degradation and desertification. Hydropower is also another major source of energy for most countries within the GHA region. Hydropower is however highly vulnerable to fluctuations in rainfall in that too little rainfall leads to drought while too much leads to floods. The consequence of drought is low water levels in the dams for electrical power generation leading to huge economic losses and negative economic development of a nation. On the other hand, too much rainfall can lead to floods that pose threat to dam breakages and siltation. A number of countries in the GHA region still depend on fossil based fuels for energy generation. These fuels have been associated with greenhouse gas emission and environmental degradation that have been linked to ozone depletion and climate change including global warming. The issue of global warming has been a major concern worldwide leading to formulation of several international conventions including the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the UNCCD, UNCB and several protocols on ozone depletion. Climate extremes have both direct and indirect impacts on all energy sources, e.g. increased demand for power during cold seasons; safety of distribution systems for petroleum products; quality and availability of biomass among others. The major goal of this division is to provide regional climate information required in the energy sector. To improve the understanding of the linkages between climate variability and the Energy Sector. The Specific objectives include: · Explore ways of developing decision support tools that would enhance the utilization of climate information and prediction products into the energy sector. · Enhance the use of downscaled climate prediction products with special emphasis on the energy sector. · Examine ways in which climate prediction and early warning products can reach the energy sector in a timely manner through sector specific early warning systems. · Examine ways in which climate observation and monitoring in support of relevant renewable energy activities can be enhanced. · Develop scenarios of future climate change and examine how these would impact on the energy sector. · Encourage the use of alternative renewable energy sources such as wind and solar to reduce the dependency on hydro and petroleum products. The activities for this division that are in line with the above objectives include:  file:///C|/Kim/Web Design/_src/Energy sector.html (1 of 4)04/08/2005 11:31:47    ICPAC Strategy in addressing the challenges related to the application of climate in the energy sector  Identify and prioritize the renewable energy resources in the region that require immediate attention in terms of assessment, mapping, development and management of these resources. q Monitoring of specific climate hazards and provision of timely early warning for the energy sector. q Provision of climate information required for risk assessment within the energy sector. q Working with national focal point energy experts in order to improve climate related tools for energy management and development. q Conducting workshops aimed at building the capacity of the regional energy experts to be able to downscale and interpret seasonal climate information relevant for the sector. q Education and awareness creation within the sector on the linkages between climate and the use of renewable energy resources. q Strengthen the development of regional climate scenarios for energy impact assessment. q Develop simple prediction tools for early warning and risk assessment for use in the power sector based on the ongoing pilot studies. q Extend the results of hydropower pilot projects for application in other countries such as Tanzania, Ethiopia and Uganda among others. q Provide climate information to the forestry department for the management of forests including reforestation q Participate with international partners in combating desertification. q Propose the development of sector specific policies that would encourage factoring of climate information in the management of disasters within the energy sector as well as enhance the use of renewable energy resources such as wind, solar and tidal energy. q Examine the impact of extreme climate on the sector and develop scenarios of future climate change and examine how these would impact on the energy sector. q Encourage the use of alternative renewable energy sources such as wind, solar and biogas to reduce the dependency on hydro and petroleum products. ______________________________________________________________________________  q  ICPAC CORE SUBOBJECTIVE PROGRAMME PROGRAMME CP3) AND OBJECTIVES  Support activities in the Climate Applications renewable energy (wind, ENERGY solar, hydropower, biomass etc) sector of member countries through enhanced use of climate information  · Assessment, mapping, development and management of renewable energy potentials in the region. · Monitoring of specific climate hazards and provision of timely early warning for the energy sector. · Provision of climate information required for risk assessment in the  OUTPUT  MAJOR ACTIVITIES  TIME-FRAME  2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010  ·  National/ regional report on renewable energy zone maps (wind atlas, solar energy atlas etc)  ·  Analysis and zone mapping to strengthen utilization and exploration of renewable energy resources. Regular preparation of summaries on impacts of observed climate conditions on renewable energy  ·  Reports on impacts of climate on renewable energy  ·  file:///C|/Kim/Web Design/_src/Energy sector.html (2 of 4)04/08/2005 11:31:47    ICPAC Strategy in addressing the challenges related to the application of climate in the energy sector  energy sector. · Working with national focal point energy experts in order to improve climate related tools for energy management and development. · Conducting workshops aimed at building the capacity of the regional energy experts to be able to downscale and interpret seasonal climate information relevant for the sector. · Education and awareness creation within the sector on the linkages between climate and the use of renewable energy resources. · Strengthen the development of regional climate scenarios for energy impact assessment. · Develop simple prediction tools for early warning and risk assessment for use in the power sector based on the ongoing pilot studies. · Participate with international partners in combating desertification. · Propose the development of sector specific policies that would encourage factoring of climate information in the management of disasters within the energy sector as well as enhance the use of renewable energy resources such as wind, solar and tidal energy.  ·  Sensitized climate scientists, renewable energy managers and other users.  ·  factoring of climate information in national and regional renewable energy management policies Calibrate downscaling methods for hydropower basins for efficient operations, planning and management of hydropower generation. Establish future climate impacts on renewable energy resources.  · ·  Report of new data exchange initiatives  ·  file:///C|/Kim/Web Design/_src/Energy sector.html (3 of 4)04/08/2005 11:31:47    ICPAC Strategy in addressing the challenges related to the application of climate in the energy sector  file:///C|/Kim/Web Design/_src/Energy sector.html (4 of 4)04/08/2005 11:31:47    ",34);arrFiles[9]=new Array(10,"Applications/health/health.html","2005-12-01","ICPAC: APPLICATIONS","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Applications Outreach | Health | Tourism & Wildlife | Water Resources | Energy | Disaster Management | Agriculture | Marine & Coastal | Prediction | Remote Sensing & GIS | Research & Development | »Outreach »Health »Tourism & Wildlife »Water Resources »Energy »Disaster Management »Agriculture »Marine & Coastal Resources »Prediction & Early Warning »Remote Sensing & GIS »Research & Development HEALTH A variety of tropical diseases common in the Greater Horn of Africa are indirectly or directly associated to climate, especially the extremes. Many vector borne diseases are sensitive to changes in meteorological parameters such as rainfall, temperature, and humidity. These include malaria, cholera, Rift Valley Fever (RVF) meningitis among other drought and flood related diseases. On human health, extreme climate events trigger rampant outbreaks of water borne diseases such as cholera, typhoid, malaria and Rift Valley Fever among others in areas where generally these diseases are not common. Some unique diseases in humans and animals have been observed to recur after periods of extreme climate events such as floods and droughts. The strategy for enhanced application of climate in the health sector shall include 1)	Enhancing interactions between health and climate experts through capacity building and awareness workshops. Promote use of climate information and early warning to reduce vector borne disease epidemic outbreaks. Promote use of climatic information in health sector policy making. Create awareness on factoring of climate information and early warning products in national and regional health management policies Establish processes of exchanging climate and health information Identify health programmes which require climate/health information 2)	Collaborate with partners in the identification of climate sensitive diseases and map disease risk zone areas. climate related disease risk analysis and vulnerability zone mapping to strengthen epidemic prediction and preparedness initiatives. Downscale climate information for prediction and early warning for health sector Establish linkages of immerging diseases and new diseases strains related to climate change 3)	Working closely with national and regional health institutions and other partners to develop prototype climate related disease epidemic prediction models. Testing the malaria prediction prototype model for the GHA sub-region Enhance data exchange initiatives in climate related health programmes· Develop prototype climate related disease prediction models Training of health experts in the use of malaria prediction model «top [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",11);arrFiles[10]=new Array(11,"Applications/marine_coastal_resources/marine_coastal.html","2005-12-01","ICPAC: APPLICATIONS - MARINE & COASTAL/AQUATIC RESOURCES","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Applications Outreach | Health | Tourism & Wildlife | Water Resources | Energy | Disaster Management | Agriculture | Marine & Coastal | Prediction | Remote Sensing & GIS | Research & Development | »Outreach »Health »Tourism & Wildlife »Water Resources »Energy »Disaster Management »Agriculture »Marine & Coastal Resources »Prediction & Early Warning »Remote Sensing & GIS »Research & Development MARINE, COASTAL/AQUATIC RESOURCES SECTOR. The GHA coastal zones and wetlands supports a diversity of habitats and resources encompassing mangroves, rocky shores, sandy beaches, deltas, estuaries and coastal wetlands, coral reefs and lagoons. Coral reefs and mangroves are especially important features because they protect the coastline by moderating storm and wave impacts and because mangroves stabilize sand and soils, cycle nutrients, absorb and break down waste products, provide wildlife habitat, and maintain biodiversity. Reefs and mangroves also contribute significantly to the economies of coastal countries by providing opportunities for tourism and for harvesting of resources. However, coastal zones, marine and wetland areas are vulnerable to climate related hazards such as storms including tropical cyclones/ hurricanes; waves and storm surges, tsunamis, river flooding, shoreline erosion, and influx of biohazards such as algal blooms and pollutants. Furthermore, climate variability substantially alters the distribution and abundance of major fish stocks, and has implications for marine populations and ecosystems. To mitigate these problems, ICPAC’s marine, coastal/aquatic sector has a goal of: enhancing the application of climate information and prediction products for early warning of climate related marine hazards and integrated planning, and management of coastal zones and wetlands resources To achieve this goal, the sector is engaged in: 1)	Improving the understanding of the linkages between climate and the oceans for accurate climate predictions. Through analysis of impacts of ocean SSTs, sea levels changes & weather phenomena (e.g. tropical cyclones) on marine/aquatic resources. 2)	Provision Climate information for exploitation of coastal, aquatic resources. Through increased observation and monitoring in support of coastal zones, marine/aquatic resources. 3)	Improving the level of preparedness in marine and coastal zones to respond to climate related threats such as tropical cyclones (TC), pollution etc. Through Risk/Vulnerability mapping and zoning of marine and coastal resources for the GHA countries. 4)	Enhancing linkages with other research organizations dealing with marine and aquatic resources Through creation of awareness on factoring of climate information and early warning products in national and regional marine/aquatic management policies and; Improving the processes of exchanging climate and marine and coastal zones information with other research institutions (e.g. KEMFRI, UNESCO , ODINAFRICA , etc) «top [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",12);arrFiles[11]=new Array(12,"Applications/outreach/outreach.html","2005-12-01","ICPAC: APPLICATIONS","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Applications Outreach | Health | Tourism & Wildlife | Water Resources | Energy | Disaster Management | Agriculture | Marine & Coastal | Prediction | Remote Sensing & GIS | Research & Development | »Outreach »Health »Tourism & Wildlife »Water Resources »Energy »Disaster Management »Agriculture »Marine & Coastal Resources »Prediction & Early Warning »Remote Sensing & GIS »Research & Development OUTREACH DIVISION Timely availability of climate information in a user friendly language is critical to effective application of climate products and information. Most of the users of climate information are illiterate and the majority of them live in the rural areas where tribal / clan languages are the only mode of communication. Women and children are often impacted on most by the climate hazards. The key challenge of the section will therefore by how to involve women and youth on climate, environment and disaster management issues including development of policies and copying strategies. The goal of this section is to demystify the technical jargons used by the climate scientists; educate and improve the awareness of the public and users of climate information in order to reduce the impacts of climate hazards on the societal livelihood including agriculture, food security, livestock, health and energy among others. The outreach activities within the period 2005 -2010 include: Improved networking with various stakeholders and timely delivery of climate information; Improve the collaborations between ICPAC and NMHSs with NECJOGHA and associated national chapters, and other national, regional and international partners Education and awareness, and demystify the technical climate / weather jargons through partnerships with both electronic and print media including the use of RANET , major youth and gender groups in GHA, publication of education pamphlets addressing specific climate / environment challenges, etc. Collaborations with the traditional weather / climate observers Establishment of some pilot demonstration projects to assess and communicate examples of successful use / impediments of seasonal climate prediction products; , clearly describing how the products influence decision-making , etc «top [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",11);arrFiles[12]=new Array(13,"Applications/prediction_early_warning/prediction_early_warning.html","2005-12-01","ICPAC: APPLICATIONS","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Applications Outreach | Health | Tourism & Wildlife | Water Resources | Energy | Disaster Management | Agriculture | Marine & Coastal | Prediction & Early Warning | Remote Sensing & GIS | Research & Development | »Outreach »Health »Tourism & Wildlife »Water Resources »Energy »Disaster Management »Agriculture »Marine & Coastal Resources »Prediction & Early Warning »Remote Sensing & GIS »Research & Development PREDICTION AND EARLY WARNING DIVISION Skilful climate prediction and timely early warning forms the foundation of any operational climate centre. ICPAC provides 10 days, monthly and seasonal climate prediction products that are required by IGAD, the NMHSs, and other national, regional and international partners. The Division uses two empirical techniques to provide climate outlooks namely dynamical and statistical approaches. Some of the climate modeling methods requires enormous computing power and skilled human capacity. Improvement of ICPAC and national computing capacity, human resources and development of new prediction tools are the main priority of the Division. The other priority is to develop products required for specific sector applications. Statistical climate prediction methods The statistical prediction methods are based on empirical relationships between rainfall over specific parts of GHA and some global / regional/ local climate system indices. The major climate system indices that are used at ICPAC include evolution of monsoons, medium and upper level winds, Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Quasi biennial oscillation (QBO), El Niño / Southern oscillation, Indian Ocean dipole IOD, tropical cyclones, sea surface temperature gradients among many others that have been derived from general circulation. Most of the statistical methods still do not explain most percentages of rainfall variances. A lot of efforts must therefore be made to improve the skills of the prediction models. At the moment ICPAC is collaborating with a number of partners such as IRI , NCEP/CPC , UKMO , FSU , NCMRWF among others to address climate prediction and early warning challenges in the region. The activities of the unit during 2005-2010 period include: Documentation of the methods and associated applications Develop improved prediction techniques for the ten-day outlook. Provide forecasts on temperatures and rainfall onset, cessation and distribution of dry/wet spells. Continuous verification of the prediction products to assess the skill of the forecasts disseminated to the users. Basic diagnostic research to improve the prediction products for various time scales Develop pilot projects to assess and communicate successful use of forecasts. Improvement of statistical techniques on the downscaling of prediction products to meet user requirements. Ensure user feedback is incorporated into forecast developments. Continue to improve the capacity of the member states on statistical and other new and emerging climate prediction technologies. Enhance collaboration with other relevant regional and international centres engaged in climate prediction and application services Dynamical climate prediction approaches The climate modeling and numerical weather prediction methods used at ICPAC provide the evolutionary spatial and temporal evolutionary dynamics of weather and climate evolutions over the GHA region. Currently, ICPAC is running the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) in a dynamical downscaling mode using a mini-super computer, an IBM RS6000. The RSM is nested in the low-resolution global model ECHAM 4.5 run operationally at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction ( IRI ). The IRI global model provides the initial and lateral boundary conditions for the regional model, and the global model outputs are provided by the IRI . Statistical downscaling of the global model (ECHAM4.5) is also being done at ICPAC through a package that has been coded at IRI that uses Model Output Statistics (MOS). The ultimate objective of the section is to use an array of global climate models (GCMs), Regional Climate Models (RCMs), Numerical Weather Prediction Models (NWP), and other modeling technologies including downscaling and Super Ensemble techniques. The activities scheduled for the 2005-2010 period include: Enhancing of NWP at ICPAC and NMHS. Adoption of operational FSU super ensemble NWP products for the GHA at ICPAC and NMHS. Adoption of 24 hour operational NWP models from other centers such as ECMWF , NCEP , NCMRWF , UK Met Office , and Germany Training of National experts in NWP Assist NMHS to source for software and hardware facilities for NWP operations Enhancing Medium Range NWP at ICPAC in Support of 10day bulletins and NMHS. Set up and update continuously the operational databases necessary for the medium range and super ensemble real time runs. Extension of the FSU super ensemble NWP to 10days and its use in ICPAC dekadal bulletin. Verify and use 10day NWP products from other centers: COLA, NCMRWF and others and run Eta model operationally at ICPAC. Under take capacity building training on medium range NWP and it’s operational challenges. Climate modelling and downscaling for seasonal products at ICPAC Operational use of the ICPAC-IRI calibrated global ECHAM model and dynamical downscaling with the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) for prediction of October-December seasons. Operational use of Model Output Statistics (MOS) of the global model as statistical downscaling at ICPAC and NMHSs in seasonal forecasts. Creation and analysis of the ECHAM model database for seasons MAM, and JJA and evaluation of the skill of the ECHAM and RSM for these seasons. Configuration and adoption of FSU Super ensemble model products for seasonal forecasts. Identification of other models and modeling techniques being used operationally at other centers such as ECMWF , NCEP , BMRC, NCMRWF , UKMET Office , Max Planck Institute of Meteorology , and NCSU among others, and the customisation of those models in the region. Acquire a global model that can be run at ICPAC. Continuation of regional capacity building in dynamical climate modeling. Acquisition of PCs and clustering technology for parallel processing. «top [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",17);arrFiles[13]=new Array(14,"Applications/remote_sensing/remote_sensing.html","2005-12-01","ICPAC: APPLICATIONS","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Applications Outreach | Health | Tourism & Wildlife | Water Resources | Energy | Disaster Management | Agriculture | Marine & Coastal | Prediction | Remote Sensing & GIS | Research & Development | »Outreach »Health »Tourism & Wildlife »Water Resources »Energy »Disaster Management »Agriculture »Marine & Coastal Resources »Prediction & Early Warning »Remote Sensing & GIS »Research & Development REMOTE SENSING AND GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are currently some of the robust tools that are used for sound environmental management and credible natural resources assessment. RS can, for example, be used to generate proxies of data to supplement the data received from the existing observation network thereby creating a more complete and better spatially distributed dataset for better information generation. RS data can also be used in the monitoring of the environmental conditions and assessment of the quality and quantity of the natural resources at any given location. There are several types of RS data that are available and can be used for better monitoring of the GHA sub-region. For example, at the moment Kenya is installing Doppler radars in her quest to improve rainfall monitoring, while the NDVI products from NOAA satellites are being used throughout the IGAD sub-region. Harmonization of these data types for the sub-region will improve the monitoring of climate generally. On the other hand, GIS is a new tool, which allows for integrated multiple analysis of data from various sources based on the same geographical location. Since most natural problems we encounter are results of several factors, such a tool would be invaluable for proper integrated decision making. The main goal of this department is to provide RS and GIS support as required by the specific sectors being monitored by ICPAC. This will include the provision of data for areas with no in situ data and/or areas with poor in situ spatial observation network. Key support to the various sectors will include capacity building to enhance the capacity of the sectorial experts in the use of RS data and GIS; monitoring, prediction and early warning of hazards and disasters; and mapping and assessment of the natural resources such as vegetation, water and crop yields. To fully achieve this goal, there will be a need for setting up a remote sensing and GIS database, communication facilities (intranet connecting member states for ease of download of data), and appropriate computers for data and information processing and management. The division will undertake the following activities within the course of this year (2005): Identifying appropriate proxy satellite data and products for all the sectors. Validation and calibration of the identified satellite data and products. Creation of a database for the identified data and products. Initiate monitoring and assessment of natural resources from remote platforms. Creating a GIS database for all the in situ data for all sectors that currently exists in different formats at ICPAC. Hold a workshop on RS and GIS for at least two sectors. Initiate networking and collaboration between the member states, regional and international institution «top [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",12);arrFiles[14]=new Array(15,"Applications/research_development/research_development.html","2005-12-01","ICPAC: APPLICATIONS","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Applications Outreach | Health | Tourism & Wildlife | Water Resources | Energy | Disaster Management | Agriculture | Marine & Coastal | Prediction | Remote Sensing & GIS | Research & Development | »Outreach »Health »Tourism & Wildlife »Water Resources »Energy »Disaster Management »Agriculture »Marine & Coastal Resources »Prediction & Early Warning »Remote Sensing & GIS »Research & Development RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT Research, development and documentation is an important component of any institution. It is necessary to ensure that up-todate research work is being carried out in line with the development goals of an institution. Our research is vibrant to come up with tools required for application of climate information in the decision making process. It is directed at how to better improve the outputs of ICPAC applications, as opposed to being ‘pure’ research. Our major objectives is to improve the technical capacity of producers and users of climatic information while at the same time enhancing the input to climate monitoring and forecasting products and use of the same products. The specific objectives include: Strengthening the area of Applied Research. Capacity Building. Assisting in project formulation and development. Information Documentation and Library archives. The research activities include: Review and prioritize relevant research activities of regional and international importance. Carry out relevant research activities that would reduce climate related risks for the different socio-economic sectors. Encourage activities that would promote Applied Research in the understanding of climate systems as opposed to theoretical research. Encourage collaborative research work with local universities, research centers and other international research institutions in the area of applied research. Encourage the Development of Pilot Application Projects relevant to specific socio-economic sectors in the region. Development and testing of forecast models as well as user specific products. Use the results from various research work undertaken in the division to conduct Capacity Building Training workshops. Find ways of patenting and protection of the research discoveries carried out for the region. Documentation the research findings in the Library. Collection and archiving of relevant research publications, journals and reports from other research institutions in the library. Publications of reports on hard copies, CDs, Bulletins and other media of storage. «top [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",12);arrFiles[15]=new Array(16,"Applications/tourism_wildlife/tourism_wildlife.html","2005-12-01","ICPAC: APPLICATIONS","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Applications Outreach | Health | Tourism & Wildlife | Water Resources | Energy | Disaster Management | Agriculture | Marine & Coastal | Prediction | Remote Sensing & GIS | Research & Development | »Outreach »Health »Tourism & Wildlife »Water Resources »Energy »Disaster Management »Agriculture »Marine & Coastal Resources »Prediction & Early Warning »Remote Sensing & GIS »Research & Development TOURISM AND WILDLIFE DEPARTMENT In many of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) countries, tourism, wildlife and associated industries are among the leading foreign exchange earners. In the sub-region, wildlife co-exists with other human activities range-lands, mainly inhabited by agro-pastoral communities. Climate extremes such as floods and droughts that are frequent in the region are often have severe impacts on wild life, tourism and associated sectors. Such impacts include lack of forage production and water resources; large scale migrations; loss of live; increased poverty level of most of the pastoralists; poor infrastructure and inaccessibility of wild life and tourism activities; higher risk of wild fire and the associated deaths together with loss of valuable fauna and flora; conflicts over meager water and forage resources; increased diseases incidences; and among many other socio-economic problems. Climate interacts with the physical environment that determines the environmental conditions and natural resources of any given area. Wildlife conservation and tourism are based on the predictability and stability of climatic conditions. Tourism is largely based on wildlife, which is very vulnerable to climatic variability, as it affects the vegetation upon which they are dependent. Most of the wildlife conservation areas are characterized by climate variability that dictates the vegetation dynamics, wildlife movements and migrations. The variability of climate and consequent effects has serious implications on wildlife conservation and economic activities such as tourism. The strategy for enhanced application of climate in the tourism and wildlife sector shall include: Create awareness on factoring of climate information including impacts of climate change in national and regional tourism and wildlife management policies, enhance linkages between tourism and wildlife sectors and climate; Develop user specific models and products for applications in the tourism and wildlife sectors;-provision of advisory national/regional tourists destinations and wildlife grazing alternatives in view of forecast climate. Enhanced use of indigenous skills and knowledge of techniques for applications in the specific sectors; Establish coping techniques by the, tourism and wildlife sectors to adapt to and/or mitigate against extreme climatic events. Identify appropriate management options to capitalize on opportunities and threats to wildlife based on advance information about the forthcoming season. «top [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",11);arrFiles[16]=new Array(17,"Applications/water_resources/water_rescources.html","2005-12-01","ICPAC: APPLICATIONS","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Applications Outreach | Health | Tourism & Wildlife | Water Resources | Energy | Disaster Management | Agriculture | Marine & Coastal | Prediction | Remote Sensing & GIS | Research & Development | »Outreach »Health »Tourism & Wildlife »Water Resources »Energy »Disaster Management »Agriculture »Marine & Coastal Resources »Prediction & Early Warning »Remote Sensing & GIS »Research & Development WATER RESOURCES SECTOR Many parts of the GHA have renewable freshwater resources under 1000 m3 per capita per year, commonly accepted as a benchmark for freshwater scarcity. In addition, there exists numerous transboundary waters (e.g the Nile, Lake Victoria etc). The demand for available freshwater resources however, increases year by year due to the fast population growth. Climate factors, especially rainfall has significant impacts on availability and quality of water resources systems of the region. ICPAC strategy is to provide climate information required in flood /drought forecasting and risk early warning for sustainable water resource management in the GHA. ICPAC contribution in addressing water resources management problems in the GHA include: Working with relevant hydrological institutions and partners such as USGS , FEWSNET , and WMO in development of tools for stream flow modelling, forecasting and early warning of low / high flows for pilot basins. Enhanced collaboration between climate and water experts through capacity building workshops, awareness workshops, and pilot projects. Strengthening the regional human resource capacity for application of space based technology in water resources assessment and other applications: e.g. use of Rainfall Estimate (RFE) data and Geographical Information System (GIS). Destruction of water pipes caused by floods. Use of camels in search of water due to prolonged drought. Streamflow Modelling at ICPAC. GIS application at ICPAC «top [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",11);arrFiles[17]=new Array(18,"Applications/water_resources/water_resources.html","2005-12-01","ICPAC: APPLICATIONS","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Applications Outreach | Health | Tourism & Wildlife | Water Resources | Energy | Disaster Management | Agriculture | Marine & Coastal | Prediction | Remote Sensing & GIS | Research & Development | »Outreach »Health »Tourism & Wildlife »Water Resources »Energy »Disaster Management »Agriculture »Marine & Coastal Resources »Prediction & Early Warning »Remote Sensing & GIS »Research & Development WATER RESOURCES SECTOR Many parts of the GHA have renewable freshwater resources under 1000 m3 per capita per year, commonly accepted as a benchmark for freshwater scarcity. In addition, there exists numerous transboundary waters (e.g the Nile, Lake Victoria etc). The demand for available freshwater resources however, increases year by year due to the fast population growth. Climate factors, especially rainfall has significant impacts on availability and quality of water resources systems of the region. ICPAC strategy is to provide climate information required in flood /drought forecasting and risk early warning for sustainable water resource management in the GHA. ICPAC contribution in addressing water resources management problems in the GHA include: Working with relevant hydrological institutions and partners such as USGS , FEWSNET , and WMO in development of tools for stream flow modelling, forecasting and early warning of low / high flows for pilot basins. Enhanced collaboration between climate and water experts through capacity building workshops, awareness workshops, and pilot projects. Strengthening the regional human resource capacity for application of space based technology in water resources assessment and other applications: e.g. use of Rainfall Estimate (RFE) data and Geographical Information System (GIS). Destruction of water pipes caused by floods. Use of camels in search of water due to prolonged drought. Streamflow Modelling at ICPAC. GIS application at ICPAC «top [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",11);arrFiles[18]=new Array(23,"Contact_Info/contact_info.html","2005-12-01","ICPAC: CONTACT INFORMATION","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Contact Information for ICPAC & Member Countries ICPAC | Burundi | Djibouti | Eritrea | Ethiopia | Kenya | Rwanda | Somalia | Sudan | Tanzania | Uganda | »ICPAC »Burundi »Djibouti »Eritrea »Ethiopia »Kenya »Rwanda »Somalia »Sudan »Tanzania »Uganda Links to other organizations »KMD »WMO »UNDP »ABM »IRI - USA »CPC - USA »DMCH »ACMAD News & Upcoming Events COF16 (Disaster Management) » Headline full story... Headline full story... Contact Information COUNTRY ADDRESS TEL / FAX /EMAIL CONTACT PERSON BURUNDI INSTITUT GEOGRAPHIC DU BURUNDI B.P 331 BUJUMBURA, BURUNDI TEL: 257-40-2085/2625 FAX: 257-40-2625 E-mail: igebu@cbinf.com Mr. Shirimanga Maurice, Director of Meteorological Services DJIBOUTI AEROPORT DE DJIBOUTI , LE CHEF DE SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE DEPARTMENT TECHNIQUE DIVISION METEOROLOGIQUE SECTION DE LA CLIMATOLOGIE B.P. 204, DJIBOUTI TEL: 253 340500 FAX: 253 340723 TELEX: 5889 DJ E-mail: mtodji@intnet.dj Mr. Osman Saad Said, Director of Meteorological Services ERITREA CIVIL AVIATION AUTHORITY, METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES P.O. BOX 252 ASMARA ERITREA TEL: 291 1 181822 FAX: 291 1181255/185522 TELEX: E-mail: cad@gemel.com.er Mr. Paulos Kahsay, Director of Civil Aviation Authority, Meteorological Services ETHIOPIA NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AGENCY , P.O. Box 1090 ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA TEL: 251 1 512299 FAX: 251 1 517066 TELEX:21474 TMET ET E-mail: nmsa@telecom.net.et Mr. Bekuretsion Kassahun, Director General Meteorological Agency KENYA KENYA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT P.O. BOX 30259 NAIROBI TEL: 254 20 567880 FAX: 254 20 567888/9 TELEX: 22208 E-Mail:director@meteo.go.ke Dr. J.R. Mukabana, Director of Meteorological Services RWANDA CENTRE METEOROLOGIQUE NATIONAL B.P.720, KIGALI TEL: 250 86554 FAX:250 82609 TELEX:22699 AVIAMET R E-mail: meteo@rwandatel1.rwanda1.com Mr. Musoni Didace, Director of Meteorological Services SOMALIA -- -- -- SUDAN MINISTRY OF AVIATION , SUDAN METEOROLOGICAL AUTHORITY P.O. BOX 574 KHARTOUM TEL: 249 11 778836 /37 FAX: 249 11 771693 TELEX:23088 GOVMET SD E-mail: ersad@sudanmail.net Mr. Fadalla Elkhidir El Sayem Director of Meteorological Authority TANZANIA TANZANIA METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY P.O. BOX 3056 DAR-ES-SALAAM TANZANIA TEL: 255 51 32643 FAX: 255 51 842370 TELEX: 41442 HEWA E-mail: met@meteo.go.tz Dr. Mohamed S. Mhita, Director of Meteorological Agency UGANDA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY, Ministry of Water Lands and Environment P.O. BOX 7025 KAMPALA ,UGANDA TEL: 256 41 251798/ 233559 FAX: 256 41 251797/256166 TELEX: 61163 WEATHR UG Email: com.met@meteo-uganda.net, met.info@meteo-uganda.net Mr. Stephen AK Magezi Commissioner for Meteorology THE DIRECTOR IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) P.O. BOX 10304 - 00100 NAIROBI, KENYA TEL: +254 20 3878340 FAX: +254 20 3878343 EMAIL: director@icpac.net WEB: www.icpac.net [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",16);arrFiles[19]=new Array(24,"Forecasts/forecasts.html","2005-12-01","ICPAC: FORECASTS","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Seasonal Climate Outlook »Statement from GHACOF 15 Links to ICPAC Countries »Burundi »Djibouti »Eritrea »Ethiopia »Kenya »Rwanda »Sudan »Somalia »Tanzania »Uganda Links to other organizations »KMD »WMO »UNDP »ABM »IRI - USA »CPC - USA »DMCH »ACMAD Impacts News & Upcoming Events Headline full story... Statement from GHACOF16. Select a statement from a previous GHACOF below. GHACOF14: [23-26 AUG 2004 ] GHACOF13: [25-27 FEB 2004 ] GHACOF12: [23-26 AUG 2004 ] GHACOF11: [ 3-5 MAR 2003 ] GHACOF10: [ 26-28 AUG 2002 ] GHACOF9: [ 18-21 FEB 2002 ] GHACOF8: [ 27-30 AUG 2001 ] GHACOF7: [ 14-16 FEB 2001 ] GHACOF6: [ 14-18 AUG 2000 ] GHACOF5: [ 9-11 FEB 2000 ] GHACOF4: GHACOF3: GHACOF2: GHACOF1: GHACOF15: [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",10);arrFiles[20]=new Array(25,"Forecasts/previous_cofs.html","2005-12-01","ICPAC: FORECASTS","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Seasonal Climate Outlook Statement from GHACOF15 | Statements from previous GHACOFs »Summary »The Climate Outlook Forum »Methodology »Outlook »Note »Contributors Links to ICPAC Countries »Kenya »Uganda »Tanzania »Djibouti »Eritrea »Ethiopia »Sudan »Somalia »Rwanda »Burundi Links to other organizations »KMD »WMO »UNDP »ABM »IRI - USA »CPC - USA »DMCH »ACMAD News & Upcoming Events COF16 (Disaster Management) » Headline full story... Headline full story... [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",9);arrFiles[21]=new Array(26,"Forecasts/GHACOF14/cof14_statement.html","2005-12-01","ICPAC: FORECASTS","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Seasonal Climate Outlook »Summary »The Climate Outlook Forum »Methodology »Outlook »Note »Contributors Links to ICPAC Countries »Burundi »Djibouti »Eritrea »Ethiopia »Kenya »Rwanda »Sudan »Somalia »Tanzania »Uganda Links to other organizations »KMD »WMO »UNDP »ABM »IRI - USA »CPC - USA »DMCH »ACMAD News & Upcoming Events COF16 (Disaster Management) » Headline full story... Headline full story... Statement from the fourteenth Climate Outlook Forum for the Greater Horn of Africa 23 -26 August 2004, Nairobi, Kenya Summary There is increased likelihood of near-normal rainfall over much of the Greater Horn of Africa during September to December 2004 season. High likelihood of near normal to above normal rainfall is indicated over northeastern Sudan, northern Eritrea, southern Djibouti, central and western Ethiopia and southern Sudan, much of Uganda a part from south-western areas, much of western Rwanda, much of Burundi, western and northeastern Tanzania, coastal, southern and western Kenya and eastern Somalia. Central Sudan, northern and southeastern Ethiopia, western Somalia, much of northern Kenya, northeastern and southwestern Uganda, northwestern and eastern Rwanda, eastern Burundi as well as southern, central and northwestern Tanzania have increased likelihood of near-normal to below normal rainfall. It may be recalled that some parts of the region have experienced drought conditions for the past several months. The projected near normal rainfall conditions in the coming season may not be sufficient to wipe out the impacts of the accumulated rainfall deficits that have persisted over parts of these areas. It should also be noted that heavy and short duration episodic events and flush floods are common in many areas of the sub-region, especially over the arid and semi arid zones even during the seasons with below normal rainfall conditions. The outlook is relevant only for seasonal time scales and relatively large areas. Local and month-to-month variations may occur. Warmer than normal Sea Surface Temperatures have been observed over the central and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean as well as southern Atlantic Ocean. However, colder than normal sea surface temperatures have been observed over north-western Indian Ocean but they are projected to lean towards near-normal conditions during the forecast period. Forecast model outputs also indicate that there is a high likelihood that warmer than normal Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs), that is often referred to as El-Niño, could develop over the equatorial central Pacific Ocean. Such conditions may not affect the climate of the sub region at the beginning of the season, but could have far reaching impacts towards the end of the forecast period. For example, some of the past El-Niño events have been associated with heavy rainfall occurring between November – February period. Forecast updates will be provided by the National Meteorological Services (NMSs) and the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC - formerly DMCN). The users are therefore strongly advised to keep in contact with their National Meteorological Services for interpretation of this outlook, finer details, updates and additional guidance. «top The Climate Outlook Forum From 23 to 26 August 2004, the fourteenth Climate Outlook Forum was convened in Nairobi, Kenya by the ICPAC in collaboration with the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and partners to formulate consensus guidance for the September to December 2004 rainfall season in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). The forum reviewed the state of the global climate system and its implications on the seasonal climate of the sub-region. Among the principal factors taken into account were the observed and predicted SSTs in the tropical Pacific Ocean and over much of the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Users from Agriculture and Food Security, disaster management, health, livestock, water resources and media among other sectors were active participants in the forum. The users formulated the potential implications of the outlook for September to December 2004 season and developed mitigation strategies for the respective countries and sectors. Methodology The forum examined the current and expected SST anomalies over the Pacific Ocean as well as the Indian and Atlantic Oceans together with other factors that affect the climate of the sub region. These factors were assessed using coupled ocean-atmosphere and Regional Dynamical Climate models and empirical statistical models as well as expert interpretation. The current capability of seasonal to inter-annual forecasting allows prediction of spatial and temporal averages and may not fully account for the physical and dynamical factors that influence regional and national climate variability. The experts established probability distributions to indicate the likelihood of above-, near-, or below-normal rainfall for each zone (see Map). Above-normal rainfall is defined as within the wettest third of recorded rainfall amounts in each zone; near-normal is defined as the third of the recorded rainfall amounts centred around the climatological median; below-normal rainfall as within the driest third of the rainfall amounts. Climatology refers to a situation where any of the three categories have equal chances of occurring. «top Outlook September to December constitutes an important rainfall season over much of the Greater Horn of Africa sub-region. The rainfall outlook for each zone within this sub-region is given below. Zone I: Increased likelihood of near to above-normal rainfall over northeastern Sudan and northern Eritrea. Zone II: Climatology is suggested over northern Sudan, much of Eritrea, and Djibouti as well as extreme northern Ethiopia. Zone III: Increased likelihood of near to below-normal rainfall over central Sudan and parts of northern Ethiopia. Zone IV: Increased likelihood of near to above-normal rainfall over southern Djibouti, central, western and extreme eastern Ethiopia, southern Sudan, much of Uganda, northeastern Tanzania, coastal, southern, western and extreme northern parts of Kenya as well as eastern Somalia. Zone V: Increased likelihood of near to below-normal rainfall over northeastern Uganda, much of northern Kenya, western Somalia and much of eastern Ethiopia. Zone VI: Increased likelihood of near to above-normal rainfall over much of Rwanda and Burundi as well as western Tanzania. Zone VII: Increased likelihood of near to below-normal rainfall over southwestern Uganda, northwestern and eastern Rwanda, eastern Burundi and much of Tanzania. «top Note: The numbers for each zone indicate the probabilities (chances of occurrence) of rainfall in each of the three categories, above-, near-, and below normal. The top number indicates the probability of rainfall occurring in the above-normal category; the middle number is for the near normal and the bottom number for the below-normal category. For example, in case of northeastern Sudan and northern Eritrea (zone I), there is 35% probability of rainfall occurring in the above normal category; 40% probability of rainfall occurring in the near-normal category; and 25% probability of rainfall occurring in the below normal category. It is emphasized that boundaries between zones should be considered as transition areas. «top Contributors The fourteenth climate outlook forum for the Greater Horn of Africa was organised jointly by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration / Office of Global Programs (NOAA / OGP) and the International Research Institute for climate prediction (IRI) within the framework of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) funded project, “Sustainable generation and applications of climate information, products and services for disaster preparedness and sustainable development in the Greater Horn of Africa”. Contributors to this consensus climate outlook included representatives of the Meteorological Services from ten GHA countries (Insititut Geographique du Burundi; Meteorologie Nationale de Djibouti; Eritrea Meteorological Services; National Meteorological Services Agency of Ethiopia; Kenya Meteorological Department; Rwanda Meteorological Service; Meteorology Department Somalia Republic; Sudan Meteorological Authority; Tanzania Meteorological Agency and Uganda Department of Meteorology) and climate scientists and other experts from national, regional and international institutions and organisations such as ICPAC; Drought Monitoring Centre, Harare; IRI; WMO; University of Nairobi and Maseno University. Additional inputs were provided by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Climate Prediction Center (NCEP/CPC), ECMWF and UK Met. Office. «top [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",19);arrFiles[22]=new Array(28,"Forecasts/GHACOF15/COF15_Statement.html","2005-12-01","ICPAC: FORECASTS","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Seasonal Climate Outlook | Statement from GHACOF15 Summary | The Climate Outlook Forum | Methodology | Outlook | Note | Contributors »Summary »The Climate Outlook Forum »Methodology »Outlook »Note »Contributors Links to ICPAC Countries »Burundi »Djibouti »Eritrea »Ethiopia »Kenya »Rwanda »Sudan »Somalia »Tanzania »Uganda Links to other organizations »KMD »WMO »UNDP »ABM »IRI - USA »CPC - USA »DMCH »ACMAD News & Upcoming Events COF16 (Disaster Management) » Headline full story... Headline full story... Statement from the Fifteenth Climate Outlook Forum for the Greater Horn of Africa 2 - 4 March 2005, Mombasa, Kenya Summary Consensus outlook derived from prediction models from ICPAC and other climate centres indicate that there is increased likelihood of near to below normal rainfall over much of the Greater Horn of Africa during the period March to May 2005. However probabilities of near normal to above normal rainfall favour central and northern Tanzania; Burundi; Rwanda; southern Uganda; central and southern Kenya eastern Djibouti; northeastern and western Ethiopia as well as eastern Sudan. It should be noted that episodic intense short rainfall events may occur even in areas with a likelihood of near to below normal rainfall. The outlook is relevant only for seasonal time scales and relatively large areas. Local and month-to-month variations may occur. Forecast model outputs indicate transition from mild El Niño to neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the forecast period. The current sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over much of Atlantic and southwestern Indian Oceans are warmer than average while southern central Atlantic and southeastern Indian Oceans are dominated by cooler than average SSTs. It should be noted that development of tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean during March - May period may influence the rainfall patterns in the sub-region. Update forecasts are provided by the National Weather Services and the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC). The users are therefore strongly advised to keep in contact with their National Meteorological Services for interpretation of this outlook, finer details, updates and additional guidance. «top The Climate Outlook Forum From 2 to 4 March 2005, the fifteenth Climate Outlook Forum was convened in Mombasa, Kenya by the ICPAC to formulate consensus guidance for the March to May rainfall season in the eastern Africa sub-region (sometimes referred to as the Greater Horn of Africa) comprising of Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda. Users from marine and fisheries management, food security, media, among other sectors were active participants in the forum. They participated in the development of the outlook and formulated the implications of the outlook for their respective countries and sectors. The forum reviewed the state of the global climate system and its implications for the sub-region. Among the principal factors taken into account were the observed and predicted SSTs in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and over the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans. «top Methodology The forum examined the current and expected SST anomalies over the Pacific Ocean as well as the Indian and Atlantic Oceans together with other factors that affect the climate of the sub-region. These factors were assessed using coupled ocean-atmosphere models, statistical models and expert interpretation. The current status of seasonal to inter-annual forecasting allows prediction of spatial and temporal averages and may not fully account for the physical and dynamical factors that influence regional and national climate variability. The experts established probability distributions to indicate the likelihood of above-, near-, or below-normal rainfall for each zone (see Map). Above-normal rainfall is defined as within the wettest third of recorded rainfall amounts in each zone; near-normal is defined as the third of the recorded rainfall amounts centred around the climatological median; below-normal rainfall as within the driest third of the rainfall amounts. Climatology refers to a situation where any of the three categories have equal chances of occurring. «top Outlook March to May constitutes an important rainfall season over the equatorial parts of the Greater Horn of Africa sub-region. The rainfall outlook for each zone within this sub-region is given below. Greater Horn of Africa Consensus Climate Outlook for the Period March to May 2005 Zone I : Increased likelihood of near to below-normal rainfall over southern and southwestern Tanzania. Zone II : Increased likelihood of above to near normal rainfall over central and northern Tanzania; Rwanda; Burundi; southern Uganda as well as central and southern Kenya. Zone III : Increased likelihood of near to below-normal rainfall over much of Kenya; central and northern Uganda; southern western Sudan; southern and eastern Ethiopia and Somalia. Zone IV : Increased likelihood of near to above- normal rainfall over eastern Djibouti, western Ethiopia and parts of eastern Sudan. Zone V : Increased likelihood of near to below normal rainfall over northwestern Ethiopia and southwestern Eritrea. Zone VI : Climatology is indicated over northern Sudan; much of Eritrea and western Djibouiti. «top Note The numbers for each zone indicate the probabilities (chances of occurrence) of rainfall in each of the three categories, above-, near-, and below normal. The top number indicates the probability of rainfall occurring in the above-normal category; the middle number is for the near normal and the bottom number for the below-normal category. For example, in case of southern and southwestern Tanzania (zone I), there is 35% probability of rainfall occurring in the below normal category; 40% probability of rainfall occurring in the near-normal category; and 25% probability of rainfall occurring in the below normal category. It is emphasised that boundaries between zones should be considered as transition areas. «top Contributors The fifteenth climate outlook forum for the Greater Horn of Africa was organised jointly by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre, Nairobi (ICPAC), National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the International Research Institute for climate prediction (IRI) within the framework of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) funded project “Sustainable generation and application of climate information, products and services for disaster preparedness and sustainable development in the Greater Horn of Africa”. Contributors to this consensus climate outlook included representatives of the Meteorological Services from ten GHA countries (Insititut Geographique du Burundi; Meteorologie Nationale de Djibouti; Eritrea Meteorological Services; National Meteorological Services Agency of Ethiopia; Kenya Meteorological Department; Rwanda Meteorological Services; Somalia meteorological services, Sudan Meteorological Authority; Tanzania Meteorological Agency and Uganda Department of Meteorology) and climate scientists as well as other experts from national, regional and international institutions and organisations (IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre; Drought Monitoring Centre, Harare; International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI); World Meteorological Organisation (WMO); USGS/FEWS-NET; University of Nairobi). Additional input was supplied by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Climate Prediction Center (NCEP/CPC), UK. Met Office, and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWRF). «top [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",18);arrFiles[23]=new Array(30,"Forecasts/GHACOF16/COF15_Statement.html","2005-10-05","ICPAC: FORECASTS","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Seasonal Climate Outlook | Statement from GHACOF15 Summary | The Climate Outlook Forum | Methodology | Outlook | Note | Contributors search »Summary »The Climate Outlook Forum »Methodology »Outlook »Note »Contributors Links to ICPAC Countries »Burundi »Djibouti »Eritrea »Ethiopia »Kenya »Rwanda »Sudan »Somalia »Tanzania »Uganda Links to other organizations »KMD »WMO »UNDP »ABM »IRI - USA »CPC - USA »DMCH »ACMAD News & Upcoming Events COF16 (Disaster Management) » Headline full story... Headline full story... Statement from the Fifteenth Climate Outlook Forum for the Greater Horn of Africa 2 - 4 March 2005, Mombasa, Kenya Summary Consensus outlook derived from prediction models from ICPAC and other climate centres indicate that there is increased likelihood of near to below normal rainfall over much of the Greater Horn of Africa during the period March to May 2005. However probabilities of near normal to above normal rainfall favour central and northern Tanzania; Burundi; Rwanda; southern Uganda; central and southern Kenya eastern Djibouti; northeastern and western Ethiopia as well as eastern Sudan. It should be noted that episodic intense short rainfall events may occur even in areas with a likelihood of near to below normal rainfall. The outlook is relevant only for seasonal time scales and relatively large areas. Local and month-to-month variations may occur. Forecast model outputs indicate transition from mild El Niño to neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the forecast period. The current sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over much of Atlantic and southwestern Indian Oceans are warmer than average while southern central Atlantic and southeastern Indian Oceans are dominated by cooler than average SSTs. It should be noted that development of tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean during March - May period may influence the rainfall patterns in the sub-region. Update forecasts are provided by the National Weather Services and the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC). The users are therefore strongly advised to keep in contact with their National Meteorological Services for interpretation of this outlook, finer details, updates and additional guidance. «top The Climate Outlook Forum From 2 to 4 March 2005, the fifteenth Climate Outlook Forum was convened in Mombasa, Kenya by the ICPAC to formulate consensus guidance for the March to May rainfall season in the eastern Africa sub-region (sometimes referred to as the Greater Horn of Africa) comprising of Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda. Users from marine and fisheries management, food security, media, among other sectors were active participants in the forum. They participated in the development of the outlook and formulated the implications of the outlook for their respective countries and sectors. The forum reviewed the state of the global climate system and its implications for the sub-region. Among the principal factors taken into account were the observed and predicted SSTs in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and over the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans. «top Methodology The forum examined the current and expected SST anomalies over the Pacific Ocean as well as the Indian and Atlantic Oceans together with other factors that affect the climate of the sub-region. These factors were assessed using coupled ocean-atmosphere models, statistical models and expert interpretation. The current status of seasonal to inter-annual forecasting allows prediction of spatial and temporal averages and may not fully account for the physical and dynamical factors that influence regional and national climate variability. The experts established probability distributions to indicate the likelihood of above-, near-, or below-normal rainfall for each zone (see Map). Above-normal rainfall is defined as within the wettest third of recorded rainfall amounts in each zone; near-normal is defined as the third of the recorded rainfall amounts centred around the climatological median; below-normal rainfall as within the driest third of the rainfall amounts. Climatology refers to a situation where any of the three categories have equal chances of occurring. «top Outlook March to May constitutes an important rainfall season over the equatorial parts of the Greater Horn of Africa sub-region. The rainfall outlook for each zone within this sub-region is given below. Greater Horn of Africa Consensus Climate Outlook for the Period March to May 2005 Zone I : Increased likelihood of near to below-normal rainfall over southern and southwestern Tanzania. Zone II : Increased likelihood of above to near normal rainfall over central and northern Tanzania; Rwanda; Burundi; southern Uganda as well as central and southern Kenya. Zone III : Increased likelihood of near to below-normal rainfall over much of Kenya; central and northern Uganda; southern western Sudan; southern and eastern Ethiopia and Somalia. Zone IV : Increased likelihood of near to above- normal rainfall over eastern Djibouti, western Ethiopia and parts of eastern Sudan. Zone V : Increased likelihood of near to below normal rainfall over northwestern Ethiopia and southwestern Eritrea. Zone VI : Climatology is indicated over northern Sudan; much of Eritrea and western Djibouiti. «top Note The numbers for each zone indicate the probabilities (chances of occurrence) of rainfall in each of the three categories, above-, near-, and below normal. The top number indicates the probability of rainfall occurring in the above-normal category; the middle number is for the near normal and the bottom number for the below-normal category. For example, in case of southern and southwestern Tanzania (zone I), there is 35% probability of rainfall occurring in the below normal category; 40% probability of rainfall occurring in the near-normal category; and 25% probability of rainfall occurring in the below normal category. It is emphasised that boundaries between zones should be considered as transition areas. «top Contributors The fifteenth climate outlook forum for the Greater Horn of Africa was organised jointly by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre, Nairobi (ICPAC), National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the International Research Institute for climate prediction (IRI) within the framework of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) funded project “Sustainable generation and application of climate information, products and services for disaster preparedness and sustainable development in the Greater Horn of Africa”. Contributors to this consensus climate outlook included representatives of the Meteorological Services from ten GHA countries (Insititut Geographique du Burundi; Meteorologie Nationale de Djibouti; Eritrea Meteorological Services; National Meteorological Services Agency of Ethiopia; Kenya Meteorological Department; Rwanda Meteorological Services; Somalia meteorological services, Sudan Meteorological Authority; Tanzania Meteorological Agency and Uganda Department of Meteorology) and climate scientists as well as other experts from national, regional and international institutions and organisations (IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre; Drought Monitoring Centre, Harare; International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI); World Meteorological Organisation (WMO); USGS/FEWS-NET; University of Nairobi). Additional input was supplied by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Climate Prediction Center (NCEP/CPC), UK. Met Office, and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWRF). «top [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",17);arrFiles[24]=new Array(31,"Forecasts/GHACOF16/cof16.html","2005-09-05","Untitled Document","","","Statement from the sixteenth Climate Outlook Forum for the Greater Horn of Africa, 31 August - 2 September 2005, Nairobi , Kenya Summary There is increased likelihood of near-normal rainfall over much of the Greater Horn of Africa during September to December 2005 season. High likelihood of near normal to above normal rainfall is indicated over southern and the winter rainfall zone of southwestern Sudan, northern Eritrea, southern Djibouti, central and eastern Ethiopia, much of Uganda save for the south-western and eastern areas, western and northwestern Tanzania, as well as coastal Kenya and northern Somalia. Central Sudan, northern, western and southern Ethiopia, much of Somalia, much of Kenya, eastern and southwestern Uganda, much of Rwanda and Burundi as well as southern, central and northeastern Tanzania have increased likelihood of near-normal to below normal rainfall. It may be recalled that some parts of the region have experienced drought conditions for the past several months. The projected near normal rainfall conditions in the coming season may not be sufficient to wipe out some of the impacts of the accumulated rainfall deficits that have persisted over parts of these areas. It should also be noted that heavy and short duration episodic events and flush floods are common in many areas of the sub-region, especially over the arid and semi arid zones even during the seasons with below normal rainfall conditions. Neutral conditions have been projected over the El Nino basin of the Equatorial Pacific Oceans areas. The outlook is relevant only for seasonal time scales and relatively large areas. Local and month-to-month variations may occur. Warmer than normal Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) have been observed over the central and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean as well as southern Atlantic Ocean . However, colder than normal sea surface temperatures have been observed over north-western Indian Ocean but they are projected to lean towards near-normal conditions during the forecast period. Forecast updates will be provided by the National Meteorological Services (NMSs) and the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC - formerly DMCN). The users are therefore strongly advised to keep in contact with their National Meteorological Services for interpretation of this outlook, finer details, updates and additional guidance. The Climate Outlook Forum From 31 August to 2 September 2005, the sixteenth Climate Outlook Forum for the Greater Horn of Africa was convened in Nairobi, Kenya by the ICPAC in collaboration with the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and partners to formulate consensus guidance for the September to December 2005 rainfall season in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). The forum reviewed the state of the global climate system and its implications on the seasonal climate of the sub-region. Among the principal factors taken into account were the observed and predicted SSTs in the tropical Pacific Ocean and over much of the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans . Users from Agriculture and Food Security, disaster management, health, livestock, water resources and media among other sectors were active participants in the forum. The users formulated the potential implications of the outlook for September to December 2005 season and developed mitigation strategies for the respective countries and sectors. Methodology The forum examined the current and expected SST anomalies over the Pacific Ocean as well as the Indian and Atlantic Oceans together with other factors that affect the climate of the sub region. These factors were assessed using coupled ocean-atmosphere and Regional Dynamical Climate models or empirical statistical models as well as expert interpretation. The current capability of seasonal to inter-annual forecasting allows prediction of spatial and temporal averages and may not fully account for the physical and dynamical factors that influence regional and national climate variability. The experts established probability distributions to indicate the likelihood of above-, near-, or below-normal rainfall for each zone (see Map). Above-normal rainfall is defined as within the wettest third of recorded rainfall amounts in each zone; near-normal is defined as the third of the recorded rainfall amounts centred around the climatological median; below-normal rainfall as within the driest third of the rainfall amounts. Climatology refers to a situation where any of the three categories have equal chances of occurring. Outlook September to December constitutes an important rainfall season over much of the Greater Horn of Africa sub-region. The rainfall outlook for each zone within this sub-region is given below. Greater Horn of Africa Consensus Climate Outlook for September to December 2005 Zone III: Climatology is suggested over eastern Eritrea , and western Djibouti . Zone IV: Increased likelihood of near to below normal rainfall over central and eastern Sudan , northern, western and southern Ethiopia , much of Kenya , eastern Uganda , much of Somalia and parts of northern, central Tanzania , and western Eritrea . Zone V: Increased likelihood of near to above-normal rainfall over eastern Ethiopia and northern Somalia . Zone VI: Increased likelihood of near to above-normal rainfall over southern Sudan , northern and western Uganda and western Tanzania . Zone VII: Increased likelihood of near to below-normal rainfall over south-western Uganda , Rwanda and Burundi . Zone VIII: Increased likelihood of near to above-normal rainfall over the Tanzanian and Kenyan coasts and parts of the southern Somalia coast. Note: The numbers for each zone indicate the probabilities (chances of occurrence) of rainfall in each of the three categories, above-, near-, and below normal. The top number indicates the probability of rainfall occurring in the above-normal category; the middle number is for the near normal and the bottom number for the below-normal category. For example, in case of northeastern Ethiopia and northern Somalia (zone V), there is 35% probability of rainfall occurring in the above normal category; 45% probability of rainfall occurring in the near-normal category; and 20% probability of rainfall occurring in the below normal category. It is emphasized that boundaries between zones should be considered as transition areas FOOD SECURITY OUTLOOK A food security outlook forum was held alongside the COF. The food security outlook was based on information from food security experts and participants from the countries and expert integration of the climate outlook. It is recognised that food security is compounded by several factors other than climate. The food security outlook for the SOND 2005 season and the underlying factors are given below. Current – Food security Status FOOD SECURITY OUTLOOK SEPTEMBER – DECEMBER 2005 (FEWSNET) DRAFT FOOD SECURITY OUTLOOK SEPTEMBER – DECEMBER 2005 (FEWSNET) Contributors The sixteenth climate outlook forum for the Greater Horn of Africa was organised jointly by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), the International Research Institute for climate prediction (IRI) within the framework of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) funded project, “Sustainable generation and applications of climate information, products and services for disaster preparedness and sustainable development in the Greater Horn of Africa” . Contributors to this consensus climate outlook included representatives of the Meteorological Services from ten GHA countries (Insititut Geographique du Burundi; Meteorologie Nationale de Djibouti; Eritrea Meteorological Services; National Meteorological Services Agency of Ethiopia; Kenya Meteorological Department; Rwanda Meteorological Service; Meteorology Department Somalia Republic; Sudan Meteorological Authority; Tanzania Meteorological Agency and Uganda Department of Meteorology) and climate scientists and other experts from national, regional and international institutions and organisations such as ICPAC; Drought Monitoring Centre, Harare; IRI; WMO; University of Nairobi and Maseno University. Additional inputs were provided by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Climate Prediction Center (NCEP/CPC), ECMWF , UK Met. Office, USGS, FEWSNET, RCMRD and Centre for Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance (CDMHA) of Western University College of Science and Technology (WUCST). Contributors The sixteenth climate outlook forum for the Greater Horn of Africa was organised jointly by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), the International Research Institute for climate prediction (IRI) within the framework of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) funded project, “Sustainable generation and applications of climate information, products and services for disaster preparedness and sustainable development in the Greater Horn of Africa” . Contributors to this consensus climate outlook included representatives of the Meteorological Services from ten GHA countries (Insititut Geographique du Burundi; Meteorologie Nationale de Djibouti; Eritrea Meteorological Services; National Meteorological Services Agency of Ethiopia; Kenya Meteorological Department; Rwanda Meteorological Service; Meteorology Department Somalia Republic; Sudan Meteorological Authority; Tanzania Meteorological Agency and Uganda Department of Meteorology) and climate scientists and other experts from national, regional and international institutions and organisations such as ICPAC; Drought Monitoring Centre, Harare; IRI; WMO; University of Nairobi and Maseno University. Additional inputs were provided by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Climate Prediction Center (NCEP/CPC), ECMWF , UK Met. Office, USGS, FEWSNET, RCMRD and Centre for Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance (CDMHA) of Western University College of Science and Technology (WUCST).",12);arrFiles[25]=new Array(35,"Forecasts/GHACOF16/GHACOF16_statement.html","2005-10-17","ICPAC: FORECASTS","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Seasonal Climate Outlook | Statement from GHACOF16 Summary | The Climate Outlook Forum | Methodology | Outlook | Note | Contributors search »Summary »The Climate Outlook Forum »Methodology »Outlook »Note »Contributors Links to ICPAC Countries »Burundi »Djibouti »Eritrea »Ethiopia »Kenya »Rwanda »Sudan »Somalia »Tanzania »Uganda Links to other organizations »KMD »WMO »UNDP »ABM »IRI - USA »CPC - USA »DMCH »ACMAD News & Upcoming Events COF16 (Disaster Management) » Headline full story... Headline full story... Statement from the sixteenth Climate Outlook Forum for the Greater Horn of Africa, 31 August - 2 September 2005, Nairobi , Kenya Summary There is increased likelihood of near-normal rainfall over much of the Greater Horn of Africa during September to December 2005 season. High likelihood of near normal to above normal rainfall is indicated over southern and the winter rainfall zone of southwestern Sudan, northern Eritrea, southern Djibouti, central and eastern Ethiopia, much of Uganda save for the south-western and eastern areas, western and northwestern Tanzania, as well as coastal Kenya and northern Somalia. Central Sudan, northern, western and southern Ethiopia, much of Somalia, much of Kenya, eastern and southwestern Uganda, much of Rwanda and Burundi as well as southern, central and northeastern Tanzania have increased likelihood of near-normal to below normal rainfall. It may be recalled that some parts of the region have experienced drought conditions for the past several months. The projected near normal rainfall conditions in the coming season may not be sufficient to wipe out some of the impacts of the accumulated rainfall deficits that have persisted over parts of these areas. It should also be noted that heavy and short duration episodic events and flush floods are common in many areas of the sub-region, especially over the arid and semi arid zones even during the seasons with below normal rainfall conditions. Neutral conditions have been projected over the El Nino basin of the Equatorial Pacific Oceans areas. The outlook is relevant only for seasonal time scales and relatively large areas. Local and month-to-month variations may occur. Warmer than normal Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) have been observed over the central and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean as well as southern Atlantic Ocean . However, colder than normal sea surface temperatures have been observed over north-western Indian Ocean but they are projected to lean towards near-normal conditions during the forecast period. Forecast updates will be provided by the National Meteorological Services (NMSs) and the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC - formerly DMCN). The users are therefore strongly advised to keep in contact with their National Meteorological Services for interpretation of this outlook, finer details, updates and additional guidance. The Climate Outlook Forum From 31 August to 2 September 2005, the sixteenth Climate Outlook Forum for the Greater Horn of Africa was convened in Nairobi, Kenya by the ICPAC in collaboration with the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and partners to formulate consensus guidance for the September to December 2005 rainfall season in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). The forum reviewed the state of the global climate system and its implications on the seasonal climate of the sub-region. Among the principal factors taken into account were the observed and predicted SSTs in the tropical Pacific Ocean and over much of the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans . Users from Agriculture and Food Security, disaster management, health, livestock, water resources and media among other sectors were active participants in the forum. The users formulated the potential implications of the outlook for September to December 2005 season and developed mitigation strategies for the respective countries and sectors. Methodology The forum examined the current and expected SST anomalies over the Pacific Ocean as well as the Indian and Atlantic Oceans together with other factors that affect the climate of the sub region. These factors were assessed using coupled ocean-atmosphere and Regional Dynamical Climate models or empirical statistical models as well as expert interpretation. The current capability of seasonal to inter-annual forecasting allows prediction of spatial and temporal averages and may not fully account for the physical and dynamical factors that influence regional and national climate variability. The experts established probability distributions to indicate the likelihood of above-, near-, or below-normal rainfall for each zone (see Map). Above-normal rainfall is defined as within the wettest third of recorded rainfall amounts in each zone; near-normal is defined as the third of the recorded rainfall amounts centred around the climatological median; below-normal rainfall as within the driest third of the rainfall amounts. Climatology refers to a situation where any of the three categories have equal chances of occurring. Outlook September to December constitutes an important rainfall season over much of the Greater Horn of Africa sub-region. The rainfall outlook for each zone within this sub-region is given below. Greater Horn of Africa Consensus Climate Outlook for September to December 2005 Zone III: Climatology is suggested over eastern Eritrea , and western Djibouti . Zone IV: Increased likelihood of near to below normal rainfall over central and eastern Sudan , northern, western and southern Ethiopia , much of Kenya , eastern Uganda , much of Somalia and parts of northern, central Tanzania , and western Eritrea . Zone V: Increased likelihood of near to above-normal rainfall over eastern Ethiopia and northern Somalia . Zone VI: Increased likelihood of near to above-normal rainfall over southern Sudan , northern and western Uganda and western Tanzania . Zone VII : Increased likelihood of near to below-normal rainfall over south-western Uganda , Rwanda and Burundi . Zone VIII: Increased likelihood of near to above-normal rainfall over the Tanzanian and Kenyan coasts and parts of the southern Somalia coast. Note: The numbers for each zone indicate the probabilities (chances of occurrence) of rainfall in each of the three categories, above-, near-, and below normal. The top number indicates the probability of rainfall occurring in the above-normal category; the middle number is for the near normal and the bottom number for the below-normal category. For example, in case of northeastern Ethiopia and northern Somalia (zone V), there is 35% probability of rainfall occurring in the above normal category; 45% probability of rainfall occurring in the near-normal category; and 20% probability of rainfall occurring in the below normal category. It is emphasized that boundaries between zones should be considered as transition areas FOOD SECURITY OUTLOOK A food security outlook forum was held alongside the COF. The food security outlook was based on information from food security experts and participants from the countries and expert integration of the climate outlook. It is recognised that food security is compounded by several factors other than climate. The food security outlook for the SOND 2005 season and the underlying factors are given below. FOOD SECURITY OUTLOOK SEPTEMBER – DECEMBER 2005 (FEWSNET) Contributors The sixteenth climate outlook forum for the Greater Horn of Africa was organised jointly by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), the International Research Institute for climate prediction (IRI) within the framework of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) funded project, “Sustainable generation and applications of climate information, products and services for disaster preparedness and sustainable development in the Greater Horn of Africa” . Contributors to this consensus climate outlook included representatives of the Meteorological Services from ten GHA countries (Insititut Geographique du Burundi; Meteorologie Nationale de Djibouti; Eritrea Meteorological Services; National Meteorological Services Agency of Ethiopia; Kenya Meteorological Department; Rwanda Meteorological Service; Meteorology Department Somalia Republic; Sudan Meteorological Authority; Tanzania Meteorological Agency and Uganda Department of Meteorology) and climate scientists and other experts from national, regional and international institutions and organisations such as ICPAC; Drought Monitoring Centre, Harare; IRI; WMO; University of Nairobi and Maseno University. Additional inputs were provided by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Climate Prediction Center (NCEP/CPC), ECMWF , UK Met. Office, USGS, FEWSNET, RCMRD and Centre for Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance (CDMHA) of Western University College of Science and Technology (WUCST). «top [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",18);arrFiles[26]=new Array(53,"Products/products.html","2005-12-01","ICPAC: PRODUCTS","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Products Monthly bulletin | Ten - Day bulletin | Climate Watch & Highlights »Monthly bulletin »Ten - Day bulletin »Climate Watch & Highlights Links to ICPAC Countries »Burundi »Djibouti »Eritrea »Ethiopia »Kenya »Rwanda »Sudan »Somalia »Tanzania »Uganda Links to other organizations »KMD »WMO »UNDP »ABM »IRI - USA »CPC - USA »DMCH »ACMAD Impacts News & Upcoming Events ABOUT ICPAC PRODUCTS Monitoring of past climate The recent past climate over the Horn of Africa is monitored on a dekadal (ten day), monthly and seasonal time scales in order to detect the evolution of any significant anomalies that could impact negatively on the socio - economic activities of the region. These are provided through; Dekadal , Monthly and Seasonal summaries of rainfall and drought severity. Monthly temperature anomalies . Current State of Climate The current state of climate is monitored and assessed using climate diagnostics and modelling techniques. These are derived from information on the state of the Sea Surface temperature anomalies over all the major ocean basins, surface and upper air anomalies of pressure, winds and other climate parameters. Prediction products These are derived from statistical models run at the centre and dynamical model outputs from advanced centres on a dekadal, monthly and seasonal time scales. The Centre has recently acquired a super computer to enhance its dynamical modelling capability and is in the process of calibrating a regional spectral climate model for the Horn of Africa that will be implemented in the near future. The prediction products are provided through outlooks for a dekad , month and season. Consensus pre-season climate outlook fora which are also organised in conjunction with the major climate centres world-wide in order to derive a single consensus forecast for the region. Impacts An assessment of the vulnerability together with the current and potential socio-economic conditions and impacts (both negative and positive) associated with the observed and projected climate anomalies is also made on a dekadal, monthly and seasonal time scales. These products are disseminated to all National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of the participating countries to serve as early warning information to a variety of sectoral users of meteorological information and products including policy makers, planners, health, energy, agricultural and water resource sectors, farmers as well as research institutions among others. «top [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",11);arrFiles[27]=new Array(54,"Products/Climate Watch/climatewatch.html","2005-12-01","PRODUCTS - CLIMATE WATCH","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Products | Monthly Bulletin Hotspots | Cyclone Activities & Associated Impacts | Current Sea Surface Temperature | Recent Climate Assessment | Temperature Assessment | Climate Stress Monitoring | Update of Outlook for May | Climate Monitoring Indices | »Hotspots »Cyclone Activities & Associated Impacts »Current Sea Surface Temperatures »Recent Climate assessment »Temperature Assessment »Climate Stress Monitoring »Update of Outlook for May »Climate Monitoring Indices Hot Spots MONDAY 7TH NOVEMBER 2005, WEATHER HAZARDS Tropical Cyclone VANSVILLE, Indiana - A tornado with winds exceeding 158 mph ripped a path of destruction through western Kentucky and Indiana as residents slept early Sunday, reducing homes to splinters and leaving entire blocks of buildings in rubble. At least 22 people were killed and 200 others injured. The tornado, the deadliest to hit Indiana since 1974, struck a horse racing track near Henderson, Kentucy, and then crossed into Indiana. Five people were confirmed dead in neighbouring Warrick County, east of Evansville, where the Ohio River city of Newburgh was hit. Sirens were sounded, but most people didn \'t hear them because it happened in the middle of the night. The tornado developed in a line of thunderstorms that rolled rapidly eastward across the Ohio Valley. Ryan Presley, a weather service meteorologist in Paducah, Kentucy said a single tornado touched down near Smith Mills in western Kentucky, jumped the river and cut a 15- to 20-mile swath through Indiana \'s Vanderburgh and Warrick counties. The tornado appeared to be at least an F3 on the Fujita scale, which ranges from F0, the weakest, to F5, the strongest. An F3 has winds ranging from 158 mph to 206 mph, and the tornado that hit on Sunday may have been even stronger, Presley said. This is the deadliest tornado in Indiana since April 3, 1974, when an outbreak of several tornadoes killed 47 people and destroyed 2,069 homes. Tornadoes can occur anytime of year, but peak tornado season in the United States lasts from March through the summer months, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Another tornado hit downtown Munfordville, in south-central Kentucky, a few hours later, destroying at least 25 homes and damaged dozens of others, as well as businesses. «top [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",10);arrFiles[28]=new Array(55,"Products/Climate Watch/climate_monitoring_indices.html","2005-12-01","PRODUCTS - CLIMATE WATCH: CLIMATE MONITORING INDICES","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Products | Monthly Bulletin Hotspots | Cyclone Activities & Associated Impacts | Current Sea Surface Temperature | Recent Climate Assessment | Temperature Assessment | Climate Stress Monitoring | Update of Outlook for May | Climate Monitoring Indices | »Hotspots »Cyclone Activities & Associated Impacts »Current Sea Surface Temperatures »Recent Climate assessment »Temperature Assessment »Climate Stress Monitoring »Update of Outlook for May »Climate Monitoring Indices 6.2 ICPAC climate monitoring Indices Figures 12 indicate ICPAC`s climate monitoring indices for the Mascarene and Arabian sea regions. The analogue years confirm the higher chances of poor rainfall performance for the month of May 2005. 6.3 Daily rainfall events from wavelet analysis Daily rainfall data for individual years were subjected to wavelet analysis in order to delineate the unique daily evolution patterns of rainfall events of the specific years. Analogue years have been chosen based on the evolution patterns of the wavelets for the period March – May (see Figure 13 ). The wavelet patterns for January to third week of April 2005 were used to discriminate the likely scenarios for May 2005 (see Figure 14 ). The wavelet scenarios displayed timely onset of the rains in March at many locations as was observed in 2005. Episodic rainfall events were however quite common. Some of these were associated with occurrences of tropical cyclones in the southwestern Indian Ocean. In general the wavelets scenarios indicate higher chances of poor rainfall performance in the month of May with exception of parts of the coastal areas. «top [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",9);arrFiles[29]=new Array(56,"Products/Climate Watch/climate_stress_monitoring.html","2005-12-01","PRODUCTS - CLIMATE WATCH: CLIMATE STRESS MONITORING","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Products | Monthly Bulletin Hotspots | Cyclone Activities & Associated Impacts | Current Sea Surface Temperature | Recent Climate Assessment | Temperature Assessment | Climate Stress Monitoring | Update of Outlook for May | Climate Monitoring Indices | »Hotspots »Cyclone Activities & Associated Impacts »Current Sea Surface Temperatures »Recent Climate assessment »Temperature Assessment »Climate Stress Monitoring »Update of Outlook for May »Climate Monitoring Indices 4.3 Climate stress monitoring Cumulated water stresses as reflected from cumulative rainfall patterns are shown in figure 10 for some selected stations in the sub-region for the period June 2004 to April 2005. Parts of the sub-region have been under persistence drought for several months. Continued dry and hot conditions over parts of these areas will have severe implications on livestock, food security, water resources, health, and many other economic, environmental and societal factors. Figure 10: Graphs of cumulated rainfall patterns «top [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",9);arrFiles[30]=new Array(57,"Products/Climate Watch/cyclone_activities.html","2005-12-01","PRODUCTS - CLIMATE WATCH: CYCLONE ACTIVITIES & ASSOCIATED IMPACTS","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Products | Monthly Bulletin Hotspots | Cyclone Activities & Associated Impacts | Current Sea Surface Temperature | Recent Climate Assessment | Temperature Assessment | Climate Stress Monitoring | Update of Outlook for May | Climate Monitoring Indices | »Hotspots »Cyclone Activities & Associated Impacts »Current Sea Surface Temperatures »Recent Climate assessment »Temperature Assessment »Climate Stress Monitoring »Update of Outlook for May »Climate Monitoring Indices 2. Cyclone activities and the associated impacts 2.1 What is a tropical cyclone? A cyclone is a large-scale violent wind rotating inwards into an area of low atmospheric pressure. The genesis of tropical cyclones depends on warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) which are generally in the range of 26.5° to 28° C, and a number of atmospheric conditions including the existence of a low pressure system in the neighbourhood. A cyclone has three main parts namely the eye, eyewall and spiral bands. The eye is a roughly circular area of comparatively light winds and fair weather found at the center of a severe tropical cyclone. Cyclone eyes range in size from 8 km to over 200 km [120 miles] across, but most are approximately 30-60 km in diameter. It is the region of lowest surface pressure and warmest temperatures aloft. The eye is surrounded by the eyewall, which is a roughly circular ring of deep convection that is the area of highest surface winds in the tropical cyclone. Outside the eyewall, convection in tropical cyclones is organized into long, narrow rainbands, which seem to spiral into the center of the cyclone, and these are sometimes called spiral bands. Tropical cyclones are known to form and move over some specific areas of the tropical oceans that are generally known as ‘cyclone basins’. There are several tropical cyclone basins where tropical cyclones occur on a regular basis. Three of the tropical cyclones basins that have significant impact on the weather/climate of the GHA are shown in figure 1. These include North Indian basin (including the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea); Southwest Indian basin (from Africa to about 100E); and Southeast Indian/Australian basin (100E to 142E). Figure 1: Tropical cyclone basins” (shaded areas where tropical cyclones occur 4, 5, 6) with influence on the climate of the GHA, Source- NOAA 2.2 Impacts of Tropical Cyclones over the Southwest Indian Ocean on the GHA Rainfall When tropical cyclones develop over the southwestern Indian Ocean, they often significantly affect the performance of the rainfall over the GHA region. Tropical cyclones are associated with heavy rainfall, strong winds and floods in the neighbourhood of the regions where they occur. They however interfere with the normal wind flow and moisture transport thereby causing reduction of rainfall over many areas that are far from it. The southwestern Indian Ocean tropical cyclone season peak occurs within the months January to March, and the northwestern sector peak is from July to September. Sometimes the southwestern Indian Ocean tropical cyclone season extends from November to March/ April, with a double peaked mid-season maximum in mid January and mid February. Their formation during late March and early April often leads to poor performance of the March - May rains. Several cyclones have been observed over the southwestern Indian Ocean region during the months of March and April. These included Hennie (21st to 29th March), Isang (3rd to 6th April) and Adeline that formed in eastern Indian Ocean and was renamed Juliet when it reached the southwestern Indian Ocean where its effects were dominant largely within 4th to 12th April. In one of the occasions two cyclones Adeline and Isang were observed over the Indian Ocean at the same time. Figure 2 shows some of the recent tracks that were observed between July 2004 and April 2005, while figure 3, pRecent the position of the tropical cyclone Juliet on April 2005. Figure 2: Some of the Tropical cyclones tracks between July 2004 to April 2005 in the South Indian Ocean, Source-Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne. Figure 3: Position of tropical cyclone Juliet on 10 April 1500GMT, source- EUMETSAT , MET5. «top [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",12);arrFiles[31]=new Array(58,"Products/Climate Watch/hotspots.html","2005-12-01","PRODUCTS - CLIMATE WATCH: HOTSPOTS: HOTSPOTS","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Products | Monthly Bulletin Hotspots | Cyclone Activities & Associated Impacts | Current Sea Surface Temperature | Recent Climate Assessment | Temperature Assessment | Climate Stress Monitoring | Update of Outlook for May | Climate Monitoring Indices | »Hotspots »Cyclone Activities & Associated Impacts »Current Sea Surface Temperatures »Recent Climate assessment »Temperature Assessment »Climate Stress Monitoring »Update of Outlook for May »Climate Monitoring Indices MONDAY 7TH NOVEMBER 2005, WEATHER HAZARDS Tropical Cyclone VANSVILLE, Indiana - A tornado with winds exceeding 158 mph ripped a path of destruction through western Kentucky and Indiana as residents slept early Sunday, reducing homes to splinters and leaving entire blocks of buildings in rubble. At least 22 people were killed and 200 others injured. The tornado, the deadliest to hit Indiana since 1974, struck a horse racing track near Henderson, Kentucy, and then crossed into Indiana. Five people were confirmed dead in neighbouring Warrick County, east of Evansville, where the Ohio River city of Newburgh was hit. Sirens were sounded, but most people didn \'t hear them because it happened in the middle of the night. The tornado developed in a line of thunderstorms that rolled rapidly eastward across the Ohio Valley. Ryan Presley, a weather service meteorologist in Paducah, Kentucy said a single tornado touched down near Smith Mills in western Kentucky, jumped the river and cut a 15- to 20-mile swath through Indiana \'s Vanderburgh and Warrick counties. The tornado appeared to be at least an F3 on the Fujita scale, which ranges from F0, the weakest, to F5, the strongest. An F3 has winds ranging from 158 mph to 206 mph, and the tornado that hit on Sunday may have been even stronger, Presley said. This is the deadliest tornado in Indiana since April 3, 1974, when an outbreak of several tornadoes killed 47 people and destroyed 2,069 homes. Tornadoes can occur anytime of year, but peak tornado season in the United States lasts from March through the summer months, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Another tornado hit downtown Munfordville, in south-central Kentucky, a few hours later, destroying at least 25 homes and damaged dozens of others, as well as businesses. [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",10);arrFiles[32]=new Array(59,"Products/Climate Watch/recent_climate.html","2005-12-01","PRODUCTS - CLIMATE WATCH: RECENT CLIMATE ASSESSMENT","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Products | Monthly Bulletin Hotspots | Cyclone Activities & Associated Impacts | Current Sea Surface Temperature | Recent Climate Assessment | Temperature Assessment | Climate Stress Monitoring | Update of Outlook for May | Climate Monitoring Indices | »Hotspots »Cyclone Activities & Associated Impacts »Current Sea Surface Temperatures »Recent Climate assessment »Temperature Assessment »Climate Stress Monitoring »Update of Outlook for May »Climate Monitoring Indices 4. Recent Climate Assessment 4.1 Rainfall Assessment Many socio-economic activities in the GHA region depend heavily on rainfall. As such, it is the most important climate element in the region. It is equally important due to its high degree of variability both in space and time and very strong seasonality. Based on the rainfall regimes, the sub-region can be divided into three sectors namely the northern, equatorial and Southern sectors. Over much of the equatorial sector rainfall is concentrated within two peak seasons of March-May and October-December. However, the western and coastal areas also receive significant rainfall during the months of July-August. The northern sector has peak rainfall concentrated largely during the northern summer months of June to September with few areas receiving the secondary peak during March to May season. The southern parts of the sub region have peak rainfall concentrated mainly within the southern summer months of December to February. Rainfall anomaly patterns for January 2005 indicated that isolated parts of the equatorial sector, central parts of the northern sector as well as western parts of the southern sector recorded rainfall amounts above 175% of the long-term average rainfall ( Figure 6a ). Much of the southern sector recorded rainfall amounts between 75 and 125% of the long-term average rainfall indicating near normal conditions. During February 2005, much of the equatorial and southern sectors recorded rainfall amounts between 25 and 175% of the long-term average rainfall. Much of the northern sector and the eastern areas of the equatorial sector recorded rainfall amounts below 25% of the long-term average rainfall indicating dry conditions ( Figure 6b ). In March 2005, the rainfall anomaly patterns indicated the western parts of the equatorial sectors as well as much of the southern sector recorded rainfall amounts between 75 and 125% of the long-term average rainfall. The central parts of the northern sector recorded rainfall amounts between 75% and 125% of the long-term average with some areas recording rainfall amounts greater than 175% of the long-term average. ( Figure 6c ). The spatial patterns of the rainfall distribution during dekad 10 (1-10 April) 2005 indicated that only the western and coastal areas of the Equatorial sector recorded rainfall amounts in the range of 30 to over 100mm resulting to near normal to wet conditions Figure (See figure 6d ). In summary, January 2005 observed wet conditions in areas in the northern and equatorial sectors which were expected to be dry at the time of the year, while some areas in the southern sector were dry as reflected in figure 7a that compares the amount received in January 2005 with the long term mean for the month ( Figure7a ). Dry conditions persisted in some parts of the sub-region during the month of February and March 2005 ( Figures 7b & 7c ); however isolated areas in the sub-region recorded rainfall amounts that were above the long-term average. Figure 6a: Rainfall anomalies January 2005. Figure 6b: Rainfall anomalies February 2005. Figure 6c: Rainfall anomalies March 2005. Figure.6d: Rainfall distribution dekad 10 (1–10 April) 2005. «top [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",13);arrFiles[33]=new Array(60,"Products/Climate Watch/sea_surface_temp.html","2005-12-01","PRODUCTS - CLIMATE WATCH: SSTs","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Products | Monthly Bulletin Hotspots | Cyclone Activities & Associated Impacts | Current Sea Surface Temperature | Recent Climate Assessment | Temperature Assessment | Climate Stress Monitoring | Update of Outlook for May | Climate Monitoring Indices | »Hotspots »Cyclone Activities & Associated Impacts »Current Sea Surface Temperatures »Recent Climate assessment »Temperature Assessment »Climate Stress Monitoring »Update of Outlook for May »Climate Monitoring Indices 3. Current sea surface temperatures patterns The map of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies for the one month period March 13 to April 9 2005 ( Figure 4 ) indicate that warmer than average Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) dominated much of the south-western Indian Ocean within the vicinity of Africa. The statistical and coupled model forecasts by most advanced climate Centres however indicate that the tendency towards warm SSTs that have been dominating some EL ñiño locations of the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean (Nino3.4 region) are currently reducing with the projections giving higher tendencies for neutral to La Niña conditions within the next few months (see figure 5 ). These conditions, together with the impacts of the tropical cyclones and the other observed regional circulation anomalies are likely to depress rainfall over the equatorial and southern sectors throughout the month of May 2005. «top [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",9);arrFiles[34]=new Array(61,"Products/Climate Watch/temp_assessment.html","2005-12-01","PRODUCTS - CLIMATE WATCH: TEMPERATURE ASSESSMENT","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Products | Monthly Bulletin Hotspots | Cyclone Activities & Associated Impacts | Current Sea Surface Temperature | Recent Climate Assessment | Temperature Assessment | Climate Stress Monitoring | Update of Outlook for May | Climate Monitoring Indices | »Hotspots »Cyclone Activities & Associated Impacts »Current Sea Surface Temperatures »Recent Climate assessment »Temperature Assessment »Climate Stress Monitoring »Update of Outlook for May »Climate Monitoring Indices 4.2 Temperature Assessment The period January to third week of April 2005 was relatively hot over many parts of the Equatorial and Northern sectors of the sub-region. Some of these areas observed record maximum / minimum temperature anomalies over several decades (Figures 8a to 9c). These were associated partly to low humidity and cloudiness. ( click images to enlarge ) Figure 8a Figure 8b Figure 8c Figure 9a Figure 9b Figure 9c «top [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",11);arrFiles[35]=new Array(62,"Products/Climate Watch/update_of_climate.html","2005-12-01","PRODUCTS - CLIMATE WATCH: UPDATE OF CLIMATE FOR MAY","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Products | Monthly Bulletin Hotspots | Cyclone Activities & Associated Impacts | Current Sea Surface Temperature | Recent Climate Assessment | Temperature Assessment | Climate Stress Monitoring | Update of Outlook for May | Climate Monitoring Indices | »Hotspots »Cyclone Activities & Associated Impacts »Current Sea Surface Temperatures »Recent Climate assessment »Temperature Assessment »Climate Stress Monitoring »Update of Outlook for May »Climate Monitoring Indices 5. Update of the climate outlook for May 2005 ICPAC, partners and the National Meteorological and Hydrological services (NMHSs) of the participating member countries released a consensus climate outlook for March - May season at the fifteenth climate outlook forum (COF15) that was held in Mombasa Kenya from 2nd to 4th March 2005. Regular updates are normally provided throughout the rainfall season. This climate watch bulletin provides an updated ICPAC outlook for the month of May 2005. The May 2005 climate outlook indicate that the equatorial parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) sub region that normally receive substantial rainfall during the months of March to May are likely to experience below normal rainfall in May 2005. The distribution of rainfall will also be poor in many areas that will be receiving normal to above normal rainfall, with some locations deriving their seasonal rainfall totals from few episodic intense rainfall events that may not be directly useful to most rainfall dependent livelihood activities of the specific areas. In more details, the rainfall outlook for May 2005 indicate that much of Burundi, Rwanda, southern Uganda, northern coast and north-western Tanzania, coast and western Kenya as well as southern coast of Somalia are likely to experience near normal to above normal rainfall. Much of Kenya and Somalia, north-eastern Tanzania, central and northern Uganda, southern Sudan as well as western and southern Ethiopia are likely to experience near to below normal rainfall. The rest of the sub-region is likely to remain generally dry (See cover page) Most of the socio – economic and the basic livelihood activities in GHA depend directly or indirectly on rainfall, and March- May season happen to be the major rainfall season in the equatorial sector of GHA. Poor performance of the March – May rains would therefore have far reaching socio-economic implications in these areas if no effective intervention strategies are taken on time. 6. Climate indicators ICPAC uses space-time evolutions of a number of climate indices to provide climate updates for GHA. Some of the indices that are used together with the SSTs were presented in some of the previous sections. Few other indices are presented in the following sections. 6.1 Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Figure 11 provides the monthly evolution of the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and SST gradients that are used by ICPAC. Evolutions of the SST anomalies over the dipole centres of the Indian Ocean are presented for the year 2004/2005. The general SST patterns are currently indicative of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phase with relatively above normal SST anomalies over eastern Indian Ocean that are likely to have significant influence on regional climate patterns. «top [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",11);arrFiles[36]=new Array(92,"Products/Monthly/agromet_cond.html","2005-12-01","MONTHLY BULLETIN - AGROMET CONDITIONS","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Products | Monthly Bulletin Hightlight | Summary [ en ] [ fr ] | Rainfall Distribution | Drought Severity | Anomaly | Weather Outlook | Agromet Conditions | »Highlight »Summary [english] »Summary [french] »Rainfall Distribution »Drought Severity »Anomaly »Weather Outlook »Agromet Conditions AGROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE FOR OCTOBER 2005 7.0 IMPACTS ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC SECTORS DURING OCTOBER 2005 The socio-economic impacts indicators are highlighted below including the vegetation conditions associated with rainfall performance. 7.1 Vegetation condition indicators and associated impacts The satellite imagery for October 2005 indicate good vegetation conditions over southern and central Sudan, western and eastern Ethiopia, northern and central Somalia, western Kenya, eastern Uganda, Rwanda and parts of northern and southern Tanzania. Poor vegetation conditions were observed over southern Ethiopia, western Uganda, eastern and northern Kenya, southern Somalia, Burundi and much of Tanzania. 7.2 Impacts of observed climatic conditions	The socio-economic impacts associated with the observed conditions over the sub-region during October 2005 are highlighted below. 7.2.1 Human settlement, health and public safety Cases of malnutrition and related diseases in parts of the sub-region where drought has persisted; Increased conflict due to lack of pasture and water for livestock in some parts of the sub-region. 7.2.2 Agriculture and Food security Continued need for emergency food aid relief and medicine in some parts of the region; 7.2.3 Water, Energy, Industry and Environment Availability of water for domestic, livestock and industrial use in some parts of the sub-region 7.3 Expected impacts in December 2005 In areas that are expected to receive near normal to above normal rainfall during December 2005 the following impacts are anticipated: Good prospects for crop and livestock production. Availability of water for domestic and livestock production. In the areas where near to below normal rainfall is expected, there is the likelihood of the following impacts: Lack of water for domestic, livestock and industrial use. Conflict over scarce water and pasture for livestock; Continued need for emergency food aid relief and medicine in some parts of the region. «top [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",11);arrFiles[37]=new Array(93,"Products/Monthly/anomaly.html","2005-12-01","MONTHLY BULLETIN - ANOMALLY","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Products | Monthly Bulletin Hightlight | Summary [ en ] [ fr ] | Rainfall Distribution | Drought Severity | Anomaly | Weather Outlook | Agromet Conditions | »Temperature »Rainfall News & Upcoming Events COF16 (Disaster Management) » Headline full story... Headline full story... TEMPERATURE Maximum Temperature Minimum Temperature RAINFALL One month anomaly Three month anomaly [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",8);arrFiles[38]=new Array(94,"Products/Monthly/anomaly_1_mon.html","2005-12-01","PRODUCTS - MONTHLY BULLETIN - ANOMALY - 1 MONTH ANOMALY","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Products | Monthly Bulletin Hightlight | Summary [ en ] [ fr ] | Rainfall Distribution | Drought Severity | Anomaly | Weather Outlook | Agromet Conditions | »Maximum Temperature »Minimum Temperature »One Month Rainfall Anomaly »Three Month Rainfall Anomaly OCTOBER 2005 RAINFALL ANOMALY Fig. 4: Rainfall anomalies for October 2005 (Anomalies de la pluviométrie pour le mois d \'octobre 2005). Rainfall anomaly patterns during the month of October 2005 indicates that much of central and southern parts of the northern sector and equatorial sector received between 25 and 125% of the long-term average. Pocket of areas in the eastern parts of the northern sector received more than 175% of its long-term average. The southern sector recorded rainfall amounts below 25% of the long-term average. «top [ BACK ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",8);arrFiles[39]=new Array(95,"Products/Monthly/anomaly_3_mon.html","2005-12-01","PRODUCTS - MONTHLY BULLETIN","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Products | Monthly Bulletin Hightlight | Summary [ en ] [ fr ] | Rainfall Distribution | Drought Severity | Anomaly | Weather Outlook | Agromet Conditions | »Maximum Temperature »Minimum Temperature »One Month Rainfall Anomaly »Three Month Rainfall Anomaly AUGUST - OCTOBER 2005 RAINFALL ANOMALIES Figure 5: Rainfall anomalies for August - October 2005 (Anomalies de la pluviométrie pour la période allant d’août à octobre 2005) Figure 5 shows rainfall anomalies for August to October 2005 season. Most parts of the northern sector, western and central parts of the equatorial sector received between 75 and 125% of its long term mean resulting in near normal rainfall. Isolated areas on the eastern part of the northern sector received above 125% of their long-term mean resulting in above normal rainfall. The eastern parts of the equatorial sector and most parts of southern sector received rainfall amounts of below 25% of the long-term average giving below normal rainfall. «top [ BACK ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",8);arrFiles[40]=new Array(96,"Products/Monthly/anomaly_max.html","2005-12-01","PRODUCTS - MONTHLY BULLETIN","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Products | Monthly Bulletin Hightlight | Summary [ en ] [ fr ] | Rainfall Distribution | Drought Severity | Anomaly | Weather Outlook | Agromet Conditions | »Maximum Temperature »Minimum Temperature »One Month Rainfall Anomaly »Three Month Rainfall Anomaly OCTOBER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ANOMALY Figure 6a: Maximum temperature anomalies for October 2005 (Anomalies de température maximum pour le mois d \'octobre 2005) Anomalies of maximum temperature for the month of October 2005 show that most parts of the sub region experienced average to warmer than average conditions especially over the eastern parts of the sub region (figure 6a). However isolated pockets of cooler than average maximum temperature anomalies were observed over the central parts of southern sector and northern parts of the northern sector. «top [ BACK ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",8);arrFiles[41]=new Array(97,"Products/Monthly/anomaly_min.html","2005-12-01","PRODUCTS - MONTHLY BULLETIN","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Products | Monthly Bulletin Hightlight | Summary [ en ] [ fr ] | Rainfall Distribution | Drought Severity | Anomaly | Weather Outlook | Agromet Conditions | »Maximum Temperature »Minimum Temperature »One Month Rainfall Anomaly »Three Month Rainfall Anomaly OCTOBER 2005 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ANOMALY MAP Fig. 6b: Minimum temperature anomalies for October 2005 (Anomalies de température minimum pour le mois d \'octobre 2005) Minimum temperature anomalies for October 2005 indicate that warmer than average temperatures (of 1 to 2°C or more) continue to be recorded over western parts of northern and equatorial sectors of the sub-region. Isolated pockets of cool conditions were reported on the eastern parts. The southern sector mainly recorded average conditions. «top [ BACK ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",7);arrFiles[42]=new Array(98,"Products/Monthly/drought.html","2005-12-01","MONTHLY BULLETIN - DROUGHT SEVERITY","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Products | Monthly Bulletin Hightlight | Summary [ en ] [ fr ] | Rainfall Distribution | Drought Severity | Anomaly | Weather Outlook | Agromet Conditions | »Highlight »Summary [english] »Summary [french] »Rainfall Distribution »Drought Severity »Anomaly »Weather Outlook »Agromet Conditions DROUGHT SEVERITY Drought severity indices are derived by considering all observations which are less than 25% (first quartile) of the ranked historical records to be dry while those which are more than 75% (third quartile) are considered wet. Figure 3: Drought severity index for October 2005 (Indice de rigueur de la sécheresse pour le mois d \' octobre 2005) Figure 3 shows the spatial pattern of Drought Severity Indices during October 2005, which clearly indicates that near normal to dry conditions over central and western parts of the northern sector. Near normal to dry conditions were observed over the western parts of the equatorial sector with an isolated part observing wet conditions. «top [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",8);arrFiles[43]=new Array(99,"Products/Monthly/highlights.html","2005-12-01","MONTHLY BULLETIN - HIGHTLIGHTS","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Products | Monthly Bulletin Hightlights | Summary [en] [fr] | Rainfall Distribution | Drought Severity | Anomaly | Weather Outlook | Agromet Conditions | »Highlight »Summary [english] »Summary [french] »Rainfall Distribution »Drought Severity »Anomaly »Weather Outlook »Agromet Conditions 1. HOT SPOTS Much of the sub-region observed near normal to below normal rainfall during October 2005. Water stress and food insecurity continue in the region with deficit rainfall; Much of the equatorial sector is likely to experience near normal to below normal rainfall during December 2005. Cumulative rainfall totals by mid November was very poor at many locations. Below normal rainfall performance in December would result into seasonal rainfall deficits at many locations with far reaching socio-economic implications, especially at locations that received poor rainfall for most of the year. 1. ACTUALITES Sur la majeure partie de la sous-région, la pluviométrie observée était presque normale à déficitaire au cours du mois d’octobre 2005. Le stress hydrique et l’insécurité alimentaire continuent dans la région suite à la pluviométrie déficitaire. Une grande partie du secteur équatorial devrait connaître des conditions pluviométriques proches de la normale à déficitaires durant le mois de décembre 2005. Jusqu’à la mi-novembre, les cumuls de précipitation ont été très décevants dans de nombreuses localités. Une pluviométrie déficitaire en décembre se traduirait par des déficits pluviométriques saisonniers dans de nombreuses localités ce qui aurait des conséquences socio-économiques à long terme, surtout là où l’on a recueilli très peu de pluie pendant presque toute l’année. 2. INTRODUCTION This bulletin contains the climate conditions during October 2005 and the associated impacts together with the climate outlook for month of December 2005 and the expected impacts. The bulletin is divided into seven sections. The major highlights and overall summary are provided in section 1 and 3 respectively. Section 4 presents the details of the climate patterns while section 5 highlight the dominant weather systems in October 2005. The climate outlook for December 2005 is presented in section 6. The final section is devoted to describing the socio-economic conditions and impacts in October 2005 as well as the expected impacts during December 2005. 2. INTRODUCTION Ce bulletin donne un aperçu sur la situation climatique du mois d’octobre 2005, le climat prévu pour le mois de décembre 2005, aussi bien que les impacts observés et prévus. Les faits les plus marquants sont présentés dans la partie no.1 et le bilan général dans la partie no.3. Les détails concernant les configurations climatiques et les systèmes météorologiques qui prédominaient en octobre 2005 sont présentés dans les parties no.4 et no.5 respectivement. La partie no.6 est consacrée à la prévision pour le mois de décembre 2005. Quant à la partie no.7, elle décrit les conditions socio-économiques et les impacts observés en octobre 2005 et donne un aperçu sur les impacts prévus pour le mois de décembre 2005. «top [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",11);arrFiles[44]=new Array(100,"Products/Monthly/monthly.html","2005-12-01","PRODUCTS - MONTHLY BULLETIN","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Products | Monthly Bulletin Hightlight | Summary [ en ] [ fr ] | Rainfall Distribution | Drought Severity | Anomaly | Weather Outlook | Agromet Conditions | »Highlight »Summary [english] »Summary [french] »Rainfall Distribution »Drought Severity »Anomaly »Weather Outlook »Agromet Conditions IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Monthly Bulletin, October 2005 1. HOT SPOTS Much of the sub-region observed near normal to below normal rainfall during October 2005. Water stress and food insecurity continue in the region with deficit rainfall; Much of the equatorial sector is likely to experience near normal to below normal rainfall during December 2005. Cumulative rainfall totals by mid November was very poor at many locations. Below normal rainfall performance in December would result into seasonal rainfall deficits at many locations with far reaching socio-economic implications, especially at locations that received poor rainfall for most of the year. 1. ACTUALITES Sur la majeure partie de la sous-région, la pluviométrie observée était presque normale à déficitaire au cours du mois d’octobre 2005. Le stress hydrique et l’insécurité alimentaire continuent dans la région suite à la pluviométrie déficitaire. Une grande partie du secteur équatorial devrait connaître des conditions pluviométriques proches de la normale à déficitaires durant le mois de décembre 2005. Jusqu’à la mi-novembre, les cumuls de précipitation ont été très décevants dans de nombreuses localités. Une pluviométrie déficitaire en décembre se traduirait par des déficits pluviométriques saisonniers dans de nombreuses localités ce qui aurait des conséquences socio-économiques à long terme, surtout là où l’on a recueilli très peu de pluie pendant presque toute l’année. 2. INTRODUCTION This bulletin contains the climate conditions during October 2005 and the associated impacts together with the climate outlook for month of December 2005 and the expected impacts. The bulletin is divided into seven sections. The major highlights and overall summary are provided in section 1 and 3 respectively. Section 4 presents the details of the climate patterns while section 5 highlight the dominant weather systems in October 2005. The climate outlook for December 2005 is presented in section 6. The final section is devoted to describing the socio-economic conditions and impacts in October 2005 as well as the expected impacts during December 2005. 2. INTRODUCTION Ce bulletin donne un aperçu sur la situation climatique du mois d’octobre 2005, le climat prévu pour le mois de décembre 2005, aussi bien que les impacts observés et prévus. Les faits les plus marquants sont présentés dans la partie no.1 et le bilan général dans la partie no.3. Les détails concernant les configurations climatiques et les systèmes météorologiques qui prédominaient en octobre 2005 sont présentés dans les parties no.4 et no.5 respectivement. La partie no.6 est consacrée à la prévision pour le mois de décembre 2005. Quant à la partie no.7, elle décrit les conditions socio-économiques et les impacts observés en octobre 2005 et donne un aperçu sur les impacts prévus pour le mois de décembre 2005. «top [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",12);arrFiles[45]=new Array(101,"Products/Monthly/rain_distr.html","2005-12-01","PRODUCTS - MONTHLY BULLETIN","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Products | Monthly Bulletin Hightlight | Summary [ en ] [ fr ] | Rainfall Distribution | Drought Severity | Anomaly | Weather Outlook | Agromet Conditions | »Highlight »Summary [english] »Summary [french] »Rainfall Distribution »Drought Severity »Anomaly »Weather Outlook »Agromet Conditions 4. CLIMATE PATTERNS IN SEPTEMBER 2005 This section contains the Climatological summary which includes October 2005 rainfall amounts, rainfall anomaly and drought severity indices in the sub-region. The indices are derived for an area in the sub-region where October is not a dry month. The normalized values for September 2005 rainfall totals from stations for which data were available are also included. Figure 2a: Outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) mean and anomalies for October 2005 (Rayonnement infra-rouge thermique, moyenne et anomalies pour le mois de octobre 2005) Courtesy of NCEP/CPC. Fig. 2b: Distribution of rainfall for October 2005 (Distribution de la pluviométrie pour le mois de Octobre 2005) «top [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",8);arrFiles[46]=new Array(102,"Products/Monthly/sst.html","2005-12-01","Untitled Document","","","Fig. 7a: Equatorial Pacific SST anomalies for December 2004 - October 2005 (indice d \'anomalies de température en surface de l \'océan Pacifique equatorial decembre 2004 à octobre 2005) (Courtesy of NCEP/CPC). Fig. 7b: ICPAC Climate Indices - SST anomalies over specific ocean basins (Indices de climat ICPAC – d \'anomalies de TSM sur certains bassins océaniques).",1);arrFiles[47]=new Array(103,"Products/Monthly/summary_en.html","2005-12-01","MONTHLY BULLETIN - SUMMARY [EN]","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Products | Monthly Bulletin Hightlight | Summary [ en ] [ fr ] | Rainfall Distribution | Drought Severity | Anomaly | Weather Outlook | Agromet Conditions | »Highlight »Summary [english] »Summary [french] »Rainfall Distribution »Drought Severity »Anomaly »Weather Outlook »Agromet Conditions 3. OVERALL SUMMARY A summary of three key components of the bulletin is presented in this section. These components include December 2005 climate outlook, the climate conditions during October 2005 and the associated impacts, together with those expected from the climate outlook. 3.1 Climate outlook for November to December 2005	During December 2005 near normal to above normal rainfall is expected over southern Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, coastal and western Tanzania as well as southern coast and western Kenya. Near normal to below normal rainfall is likely to be experienced over southern Sudan, southern Ethiopia, central and southern Somalia, much of Kenya, northern Uganda as well as parts of northern, central and southern Tanzania. Dry conditions will prevail over the rest of the sub-region (Fig. 8). 3.2 Climate conditions during September 2005 Rainfall activities were mainly concentrated in southern parts of the northern sector and the equatorial sector during the month of October 2005. 3.2.1 Northern sector The southern parts of this sector received rainfall amounts in the range of 50 to 100mm with localised areas in the southern parts receiving above 100mm. This resulted in near normal to below normal conditions over the southern parts. 3.2.2 Equatorial sector The northern, central and western parts of this sector received rainfall amounts ranging from 50 to 150mm, with isolated areas receiving rainfall above 150mm resulting to near normal to wet conditions. The eastern and southern parts recorded rainfall below 50mm resulting to dry conditions. 3.2.3 Southern sector Less than 50mm of rainfall was recorded over this sector resulting to generally dry conditions. 3.3 Impacts in September 2005 The observed climate conditions during October 2005 had the following impacts: Improved livestock production due to availability of pasture and water in the areas that have continued to receive substantial rainfall amounts; Cases of malnutrition and related diseases in parts of the sub-region where drought has persisted; Continued need for emergency food aid relief and medicine in some parts of the region; Increased conflict due to lack of pasture and water for livestock in some parts of the sub-region. «top [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",10);arrFiles[48]=new Array(104,"Products/Monthly/summary_fr.html","2005-12-01","MONTHLY BULLETIN - SUMMARY [FR]","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Products | Monthly Bulletin Hightlight | Summary [ en ] [ fr ] | Rainfall Distribution | Drought Severity | Anomaly | Weather Outlook | Agromet Conditions | »Highlight »Summary [english] »Summary [french] »Rainfall Distribution »Drought Severity »Anomaly »Weather Outlook »Agromet Conditions 3. RESUME GLOBAL Cette partie donne un aperçu sur trois aspects importants du bulletin: les prévisions du climat pour le mois de décembre 2005, les conditions climatiques du mois d’octobre 2005 aussi bien que les impacts associés et ceux anticipés pour la période couverte par cette prévision. 3.1 Les perspectives climatiques pour les mois de novembre à décembre 2005 Les perspectives climatiques pour le mois de décembre 2005 indiquent que les conditions pluviométriques pourraient être proches de la normale à excédentaires en Ouganda austral, au Rwanda, au Burundi, sur la côte et dans l’ouest de la Tanzanie, aussi bien que sur le littoral sud et dans l’ouest du Kenya. La pluviométrie devrait être presque normale à déficitaire au Soudan austral, en Ethiopie australe, en Somalie centrale et australe, dans une bonne partie du Kenya, en Ouganda septentrionale, et dans certaines zones situées dans le nord, le centre et le sud de la Tanzanie. Le reste de la sous-région devrait être généralement sec (voir la Figure 8). 3.2 Situation climatique du mois de septembre 2005 Les activités pluviométriques étaient surtout concentrées dans les zones australes du secteur nord et dans le secteur équatorial au cours du mois d’octobre 2005. 3.2.1 Secteur nord Certaines zones australes de ce secteur ont recueilli des quantités de pluie allant de 50mm à 100mm alors que quelques endroits isolés dans le sud en ont enregistré plus de 100mm. Ceci a donné lieu aux conditions proches de la normale à déficitaires dans les parties australes. 3.2.2 Secteur équatorial Dans les parties septentrionales, centrales et occidentales de ce secteur, l’on a enregistré des quantités de pluie d’entre 50mm et 150mm tandis que des endroits isolés ont enregistré plus de 150mm ce qui s’est traduit par des conditions avoisinant la normale à humides. Les zones orientales et australes, par contre, ont enregistré des quantités de pluie inférieures à 50mm ce qui a eu pour conséquence des conditions sèches. 3.2.3 Secteur austral Des quantités de pluie inférieures à 50mm ont été enregistrées dans ce secteur ce qui s’est traduit par des conditions sèches. 3.3 Impacts en septembre 2005 Les conditions climatiques observées en octobre 2005 ont eu pour conséquence les impacts suivants : Une amélioration dans la production du bétail grâce au pâturage et à l’eau disponible dans les zones qui ont continué de recueillir des quantités de pluie importantes. Des cas de malnutrition et des maladies associées dans certaines parties de la sous-région où la sécheresse persiste. Un besoin continu pour l’aide alimentaire d’urgence et des médicaments dans certaines zones de la sous-region. Des conflits occasionnés par la pénurie de pâturage et d’eau pour le bétail dans certaines zones de la sous-région. «top [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",12);arrFiles[49]=new Array(105,"Products/Monthly/wx_outlook.html","2005-12-01","MONTHLY BULLETIN - WEATHER OUTLOOK","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Products | Monthly Bulletin Hightlight | Summary [ en ] [ fr ] | Rainfall Distribution | Drought Severity | Anomaly | Weather Outlook | Agromet Conditions | »Highlight »Summary [english] »Summary [french] »Rainfall Distribution »Drought Severity »Anomaly »Weather Outlook »Agromet Conditions DOMINANT WEATHER SYSTEMS IN OCTOBER 2005 5.0 DOMINANT WEATHER SYSTEMS IN SEPTEMBER 2005 Near normal to below normal Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) dominated much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean apart from the western parts where significant positive SST anomalies were recorded in October 2005. Below normal SST were observed over Nino 1+2 with neutral conditions over the other Nino regions ( Fig. 7a ). Near normal SSTs dominated equatorial Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea and equatorial parts of southern Atlantic Ocean while warmer than normal SSTs dominated northern Atlantic Ocean, as well as southwestern Indian Ocean. SST anomaly indices over selected parts of Indian and Atlantic Oceans and the Indian Ocean Dipole mode are shown in Figure 7b. 6.0 CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER 2005 6.1 Expected synoptic conditions	The observed oceanic and atmospheric conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean coupled with model forecasts by most of the advanced climate Centres indicate that La Nińa conditions are likely to develop over the equatorial Pacific during the next several months. However during December 2005 rainfall in the sub-region is likely to be influenced mainly by the prevailing SST patterns over the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. 6.2 Climate outlook for October to December 2005	During December 2005 near normal to above normal rainfall is expected over southern Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, coastal and western Tanzania as well as southern coast and western Kenya. However, the distribution of rainfall is likely to be poor. Near normal to below normal rainfall is likely to be experienced over southern Sudan, southern Ethiopia, central and southern Somalia, much of Kenya, northern Uganda as well as parts of northern, central and southern Tanzania. Dry conditions will prevail over the rest of the sub-region (Fig. 8).	Fig. 8: Climate outlook for December 2005 (Aperçu du temps pour la période decembre 2005) «top [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",10);arrFiles[50]=new Array(106,"Products/Monthly/__highlights_en.html","2005-12-01","MONTHLY BULLETIN - HIGHLIGHTS [EN]","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Products | Monthly Bulletin Hightlight [ en ] [fr] | Summary [en] [fr] | Rainfall Distribution | Drought Severity | Anomaly | Weather Outlook | Agromet Conditions | »Highlight »Summary [english] »Summary [french] »Rainfall Distribution »Drought Severity »Anomaly »Weather Outlook »Agromet Conditions Links to ICPAC Countries »Burundi »Djibouti »Eritrea »Ethiopia »Kenya »Rwanda »Sudan »Somalia »Tanzania »Uganda Links to other organizations »KMD »WMO »UNDP »ABM »IRI - USA »CPC - USA »DMCH »ACMAD News & Upcoming Events COF16 (Disaster Management) » Headline full story... Headline full story... [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",9);arrFiles[51]=new Array(107,"Products/Monthly/__highlights_fr.html","2005-12-01","MONTHLY BULLETIN - HIGHLIGHTS - [FR]","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Products | Monthly Bulletin Hightlight [en] [fr] | Summary [en] [fr] | Rainfall Distribution | Drought Severity | Anomaly | Weather Outlook | Agromet Conditions | »Highlight »Summary [english] »Summary [french] »Rainfall Distribution »Drought Severity »Anomaly »Weather Outlook »Agromet Conditions Links to ICPAC Countries »Burundi »Djibouti »Eritrea »Ethiopia »Kenya »Rwanda »Sudan »Somalia »Tanzania »Uganda Links to other organizations »KMD »WMO »UNDP »ABM »IRI - USA »CPC - USA »DMCH »ACMAD News & Upcoming Events COF16 (Disaster Management) » Headline full story... Headline full story... [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",9);arrFiles[52]=new Array(118,"Products/Ten-Day/graphs.html","2005-11-30","CUMMULATIVE GRAPHS FOR SELECTED STATIONS IN GHA","","","Figure 4: Cumulative rainfall series for selected stations | BACK | | HOME |",1);arrFiles[53]=new Array(119,"Products/Ten-Day/ten-day.html","2005-12-01","TEN - DAY BULLETIN","","","//-- Mon, 20-Jun-2005 Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info Products | Ten - Day Bulletin ( Ref. Num: ICPAC Dekad 32/2005 ) Introduction | Hot Spots | Observed Rainfall | Assessment | Impacts | Vegetation Condition | Outlook | »Introduction »Hot Spots »Observed Rainfall »Assessment »Impacts »Vegetation Condition »Outlook Links to ICPAC Countries »Burundi »Djibouti »Eritrea »Ethiopia »Kenya »Rwanda »Sudan »Somalia »Tanzania »Uganda Links to other organizations »KMD »WMO »UNDP »ABM »IRI - USA »CPC - USA »DMCH »ACMAD Impacts News & Upcoming Events TENDAY BULLETIN DROUGHT MONITORING CENTRE, NAIROBI (DMCN) 10 DAY CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMARY AND IMPACTS FOR DEKAD 32(11-20 NOVEMBER) 2005 AND OUTLOOK FOR DEKAD 33(21 - 30 NOVEMBER) 2005 PRODUCED IN COLLABORATION WITH WMO AND THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES (NMHSs) IN THE GREATER HORN OF AFRICA (GHA) COUNTRIES 1.0 Hot spots Parts of western and northern equatorial sector as well as southern parts of the northern sector experienced wet conditions during dekad 32 (11-20 November) 2005 (figure 1). Lack of water, pasture and food in areas with cumulative rainfall deficits ; Near normal to below normal rainfall is expected over much of the equatorial and southern sectors. Figure 1: Hotspots during Dekad 32 (11 - 20 November) 2005 «top Introduction Rainfall was mainly observed over the southern parts of the northern sector, most parts of the equatorial sector and western parts of the southern sector during dekad 32 (11 - 20 November) 2005. A summary of the conditions that prevailed during dekad 32 and associated socio-economic impacts are presented in section 3 and 5 respectively. The climate outlook for dekad 34 (1-10 December) 2005 is presented in section 6. «top 3.0 Observed rainfall situation during dekad 30 Figure 2 and 3 shows the spatial pattern of observed rainfall distribution and drought severity index respectively during dekad 32 (11 - 20 November) 2005. Figure 2: Spatial distribution of rainfall during Dekad 32 (11 - 20 November) 2005. Figure 3: Drought Severity Index for Dekad 32 (11 - 20 November) 2005. 3.1 Northern sector Most parts of this sector received rainfall less than 10mm resulting to generally dry conditions. The southern parts recorded rainfall amounts between 10 and 30mm resulting in near normal to dry conditions. Localized area over the southern parts received rainfall between 30 to 50mm resulting to wet conditions. 3.2 Equatorial sector Most parts over the eastern and central parts of the sector received rainfall amounts ranging from 10 to 30mm, with localized areas observing rainfall amounts between 30 and 100mm giving near normal to dry conditions. The eastern and northern parts of this sector received rainfall less than 10mm during dekad 32. 3.3 Southern sector Most parts of this sector received rainfall amounts less than 10mm with a localized area on the western part of the sector receiving rainfall between 10 and 30mml. Dry conditions were experienced over most parts of the sector. «top 4.0 Assessment of current rainfall performance Near normal to above normal rainfall conditions were observed over the western parts of the equatorial sector while central and eastern parts of the equatorial sector shows near normal to below normal rainfall conditions ( Figure 4 ). «top 5.0 Impacts on Socio-economic Sectors The socio-economic impacts indicators highlighted in this bulletin include anomalies in vegetation conditions and indicators associated with too much and too little rainfall. «top 5.1 Vegetation condition indicators The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) imagery for the second dekad of November 2005 indicated good vegetation cover over southern Sudan, central Somalia, western Kenya, eastern Uganda and eastern parts of Ethiopia. However, vegetation deterioration was observed in parts of Eritrea, western Ethiopia, northern Sudan, northern Somalia, northeastern Kenya and western Uganda. 5.2 Impacts of observed rainfall In some parts of the region, the performance of the short rains has been below expectation while other areas experienced moderate to heavy rainfall. The impacts of the observed rainfall are highlighted below: 5.2.1 Positive impacts: Sustained ample supply of forage for livestock Availability of water for domestic, livestock and industrial use; 5.2.2 Negative impacts: Migration of agro-pastoralists for water and forage for their livestock; Persistent water stress and food insecurity; Increased malnutrition and related diseases. «top 6.0 Outlook The Arabian, Sahara and Mascarene anticyclones and the associated high pressure ridges are likely to weaken during dekad 34 (1-10 December) 2005. On the other hand the St. Helena anticyclone and the associated high pressure ridge are likely to remain fairly intense. The Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is likely to remain diffuse over parts of the equatorial sector. Consequently southern Somalia, coastal, eastern and western Kenya, coastal and northwestern Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda and southern Uganda are likely to receive near normal to above normal rainfall. Northern, central and parts of northern Tanzania, southern, central and northern Kenya, northern Uganda, southern Sudan, southern Ethiopia as well as central Somalia are likely to receive near to below normal rainfall. The rest of the sub-region is likely to experience generally dry conditions (Fig. 5). Figure 5: Climate outlook for dekad 34 (1-10 December) 2005 «top [BACK | HOME ] Background | Products | Forecasts | Applications | Activities | Contact Info | ©2005 ICPAC For more information, suggestions or comments, contact: The Director IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE P.O. BOX 10304, 00100-NAIROBI, KENYA Tel 254 20 3878340 or 254 20 3876957/60 Fax 254 20 3878343 Telex 22208 E-mail: director@icpac.net or icpac@dmcn.org",17);