Global Climate Models (GCM)

Forecasting for resilience

What are Global Climate Models?

A global climate model (GCM) is a complex mathematical representation of the major climate system components (atmosphere, land surface, ocean, and sea ice), and their interactions. Earth's energy balance between the four components is the key to long-term climate prediction.

ICPAC uses outputs from a set of global climate model to provide monthly and seasonal forecasts of rainfall and temperature for Eastern Africa. The forecasts are produced using both statistical and dynamical methods to downscale the data to a regional scale, using an ensemble of Global Climate Models. The models that are currently in use are of the European Center for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF), United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO) and selected models from North America Multi-Model Ensemble project.