09 - 16 August 2022



Temperature forecast (Anomalies)

Temperature anomalies 

  • Warmer than average temperatures expected over parts of northern Sudan, western Ethiopia, western South Sudan, western Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and most parts of Tanzania.
  • Near average temperatures expected over southern and northern parts of Sudan, parts of eastern South Sudan, most parts of Somalia, eastern Kenya, eastern Ethiopia, and coastal Tanzania.
  • Colder than average temperatures predicted over isolated areas in southern and north-eastern Ethiopia, central Sudan, and southern Eritrea.
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)

Rainfall anomalies

  • Wetter than average conditions expected over central regions of Sudan, Eritrea, central to north-eastern Ethiopia, southern to central South Sudan, isolated areas in northern Uganda and parts of western Kenya.
  • Drier than average conditions predicted over parts of western Ethiopia, central to western South Sudan, parts of southern Sudan, and parts of south-eastern Uganda.
Heavy rainfall

Exceptional rainfall

  • Extremely heavy (top 1%) rainfall expected over isolated parts of central Sudan, southern Eritrea, north-eastern Ethiopia, and Djibouti.
  • Heavy to very heavy (top 10-5%) rainfall expected over parts of central Sudan, northern Eritrea, and central to northern Ethiopia.
Temperature forecast

Mean temperatures

  • Hot conditions with temperatures above 32 ℃ expected over northern Sudan, Afar region in Ethiopia, Djibouti, coastal Eritrea and north-western coastal Somalia.
  • Moderate temperatures between 20 - 32 ℃ expected over southern to central parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Somalia, south-eastern and north-eastern Ethiopia, northern and eastern Kenya, much of Uganda and parts of south-eastern and north-western Tanzania.
  • Cold conditions with temperatures less than 20℃ expected in central to western Ethiopia, isolated parts in southern Uganda, south-western to central Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi and central parts of Tanzania.

Rainfall forecast

Total rainfall

  • Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) predicted over isolated parts of south-western and south-eastern Sudan, north-western Eritrea and isolated areas in central to northern Ethiopia
  • Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over southern to central Sudan, most parts of South Sudan, central to northern Ethiopia, most parts of Eritrea, central to northern Uganda and part of western Kenya.
  • Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over parts of eastern and southern Tanzania, coastal and central Kenya, southern to central Uganda, most parts of Somalia, central to northern Sudan, western and eastern parts of South Sudan, and south-eastern Ethiopia.
  • Dry conditions expected over central to western Tanzania, Burundi, most parts of Rwanda, northern and eastern Kenya, and isolated parts in central to northern Somalia.