31 August - 06 September 2022



Temperature forecast (Anomalies)

Temperature anomalies 

  • Warmer than average temperatures expected over northern Sudan, central to western Ethiopia, western Kenya, most parts of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and most parts of northern to western Tanzania.
  • Near average temperatures expected over most parts of South Sudan, southern Sudan, northern Somalia, and central to eastern Tanzania.
  • Colder than average temperatures predicted over southern Tanzania, most parts of Somalia, eastern Kenya, south-eastern Ethiopia, north-western South Sudan, and a few areas in southern Sudan.
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)

Rainfall anomalies

  • Wetter than average conditions expected over most parts of South Sudan, southern and eastern Sudan, north-western Eritrea, central to northern Ethiopia, parts of Djibouti northern Uganda and parts of western Kenya.
  • Drier than average conditions predicted over localised areas in south-western Sudan, central to eastern Ethiopia, and northern areas of Somalia.
Heavy rainfall

Exceptional rainfall

  • Heavy to very heavy (top 10-5%) rainfall expected over southern parts of Sudan, central to north-western South Sudan, central, north-eastern and north-western Ethiopia.
Temperature forecast

Mean temperatures

  • Hot conditions (above 32 ℃) expected over northern Sudan, a small area in the Afar region of Ethiopia, and coastal Eritrea.
  • Moderate temperatures (20 - 32 ℃) expected over southern to central parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Somalia, south-eastern and north-eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, much of Kenya, much of Uganda, eastern Rwanda and Burundi, and eastern and north-western Tanzania.
  • Cold conditions (less than 20℃) expected in central to western Ethiopia, parts of southern Uganda, south-western to central Kenya, western Rwanda and Burundi, and central parts of Tanzania.

Rainfall forecast

Total rainfall

  • Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) predicted over western Ethiopia, parts of north-western South Sudan, and a small area in southern Sudan.
  • Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over central to northern Ethiopia, north-western Eritrea, southern areas of Sudan, South Sudan, northern Uganda, and few areas in western Kenya.
  • Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over central to eastern Sudan, north-eastern and eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, north-western Somalia, parts of eastern South Sudan, central to western and coastal Kenya, eastern and southern Uganda, and parts of eastern and southern Tanzania.
  • Dry conditions expected over northern Sudan, much of Somalia, southern Ethiopia, Kenya, Burundi, and Tanzania.