Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
23 - 30 April 2024
Rainfall
Temperature
Exceptional rainfall
- Very Heavy rainfall (exceeding the top 5% on record) expected in parts of central to southern Ethiopia and northern and western Kenya.
- Heavy rainfall (reaching top 10% on record) expected over southern Somalia, southern and eastern Ethiopia, western Kenya, northern and southern Uganda, and parts of Rwanda.
Floods Update
- Very heavy rainfall is likely to lead to flooding in the flood prone areas.
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of Ethiopia, southern Somalia, northern and western Kenya, Rwanda and northern and central to southern Uganda.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over eastern parts of eastern Kenya and Tanzania.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual conditions predicted over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual conditions forecast over regions southern Ethiopia, and other few regions across the GHA.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (above 32℃) expected over cross border regions of Sudan and South Sudan and Afar region in Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of northern to central Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, most parts of Rwanda and Burundi and parts of southern Tanzania.
Heat Stress
- Elevated levels of heat stress expected in most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, eastern and northern Kenya, central to southern Somalia, and coastal regions of Eritrea, Somalia and Tanzania.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (more than 200 mm) expected over parts of central to western Kenya and southern Ethiopia.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, western and northern Kenya, central to southern Ethiopia, southern and north-western Somalia, and southern South Sudan.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in most parts of Djibouti, coastal regions of Eritrea and Sudan, northern Ethiopia, northeastern Somalia, parts of eastern Kenya, central to northern South Sudan and most parts of Tanzania.
- Dry conditions expected over most parts of Sudan and parts of north-western Ethiopia and Eritrea, parts of eastern Kenya and central to south-western Tanzania.
Weekly Forecasts
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Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures predicted over most parts of Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti, southern and western Kenya, western Uganda and western South Sudan.
- Cooler than usual temperatures forecast over central to …
Temperature forecast
- High temperatures (above 32℃) expected over north-eastern parts of South Sudan.
- Moderate temperatures (20 - 32 ℃) expected over the rest of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Moderate temperatures (20-32 ℃) expected in most parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Dry conditions expected over central to northern parts of Somalia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in north-western and central to southern parts of the country.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over southern parts of …
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the equatorial and southern regions.
Temperature forecast
- Moderate temperatures (20-32 ℃) expected in most parts of the country.