Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
15 - 22 May 2024
Rainfall
Temperature
Exceptional rainfall
- Very Heavy rainfall (exceeding the top 5% on record) expected in parts of north-eastern Somalia, northern and south-western Ethiopia.
Floods Update
- Very heavy rainfall is likely to lead to flooding in the flood prone areas.
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of South Sudan, central to northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti and northern Somalia.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over Uganda, central to southern Somalia, south-eastern Ethiopia, eastern Rwanda and parts of eastern and western Kenya.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures predicted over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures forecast over regions in central to northern Sudan, central to north-western Ethiopia and other few regions across the GHA.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (above 32℃) expected over southern regions of Sudan.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti and Eritrea.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of central Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, central to southern Tanzania and most parts of Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated levels of heat stress expected in northern areas of South Sudan, parts of central to southern coastal Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, southern to central Sudan, eastern Kenya and north-eastern Ethiopia.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (more than 200 mm) expected over some parts of north-eastern Somalia and western Ethiopia.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of South Sudan, central to western Ethiopia and north-eastern Somalia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in most parts of Uganda, central to western Kenya, eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and southern Sudan.
- Dry conditions expected over most parts of Sudan, Tanzania, central to southern Somalia, south-eastern Ethiopia, southern Uganda, eastern Kenya and eastern parts of Rwanda and Burundi.
Weekly Forecasts
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Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Very Heavy rainfall (reaching top 5% on record) expected in central to eastern Ethiopia and parts of central and north-western Somalia.
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over central to eastern parts of Ethiopia, central to southern and north-western Somalia and isolated areas in western South Sudan, central Uganda and western Kenya.
- Drier than usual …
Temperature forecast
- Moderate temperatures (20-32 ℃) expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures predicted over most parts of the region.
- Cooler than usual temperatures forecast over isolated areas in northern Kenya, and eastern Ethiopia.
Rainfall forecast
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in north-eastern parts of the country.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over central to southern parts and north-western Somalia.
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over central to southern Ethiopia, central to southern and north-western Somalia, most parts of Uganda, western South Sudan, and parts of central to western Kenya.
- Light rainfall (less than …