"Fostering Climate Prediction and Applications"
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Monitoring of past climate

The recent past climate over the Horn of Africa is monitored on a dekadal (ten day), monthly and seasonal time scales in order to detect the evolution of any significant anomalies that could impact negatively on the socio – economic activities of the region. Products are provided through:

Current State of Climate

The current state of climate is monitored and assessed using climate diagnostics and modelling techniques. These are derived from information on the state of the Sea Surface temperature anomalies over all the major ocean basins, surface and upper air anomalies of pressure, winds and other climate parameters.

Prediction products

These are derived from statistical models run at the centre and dynamical model outputs from advanced centres on a dekadal, monthly and seasonal time scales. The Centre has recently acquired a super computer to enhance its dynamical modelling capability and is in the process of calibrating a regional spectral climate model for the Horn of Africa that will be implemented in the near future. The prediction products are provided through outlooks for a dekad, month and season. Consensus pre-season climate outlook fora which are also organised in conjunction with the major climate centres world-wide in order to derive a single consensus forecast for the region.

Impacts

An assessment of the vulnerability together with the current and potential socio-economic conditions and impacts (both negative and positive) associated with the observed and projected climate anomalies is also made on a dekadal, monthly and seasonal time scales.
These products are disseminated to all National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of the participating countries to serve as early warning information to a variety of sectoral users of meteorological information and products including policy makers, planners, health, energy, agricultural and water resource sectors, farmers as well as research institutions among others.