Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
01 - 08 May 2024
Rainfall
Temperature
Exceptional rainfall
- Very Heavy rainfall (exceeding the top 5% on record) expected in parts of central to western Kenya, southern and eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti and central and north-western Somalia.
Floods Update
- Very heavy rainfall is likely to lead to flooding in the flood prone areas.
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of central to western Kenya, central to northern Uganda, southern and eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti and central and north-western Somalia.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over eastern Kenya to south-western Somalia, eastern Tanzania, central to northern South Sudan and south-western Ethiopia.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures predicted over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures forecast over central to northern Sudan, south-eastern Ethiopia and other regions across the GHA.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (above 32℃) expected over cross border regions of Sudan and South Sudan, and Afar region in Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of central Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, Burundi, Rwanda, and central to southern Tanzania.
Heat Stress
- Elevated levels of heat stress expected in most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, eastern and northern Kenya, north-eastern Ethiopia, central to southern Somalia, and coastal regions of Eritrea, Somalia and Tanzania.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (more than 200 mm) expected over some parts of central and western Kenya, southern and eastern Ethiopia, and central and north-western Somalia.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Uganda, central to western Kenya, southern South Sudan, southern and eastern Ethiopia, eastern Eritrea, Djibouti and central and north-western Somalia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in most parts of Burundi, northern Tanzania, south-western and north-eastern Somalia and central South Sudan
- Dry conditions expected over most parts of Sudan, north-western Ethiopia, western Eritrea, eastern Kenya and central to southern Tanzania.
Weekly Forecasts
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Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- Elevated levels of heat stress expected in most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, eastern and northern Kenya, north-eastern Ethiopia, central to southern Somalia, and coastal regions of Eritrea, Somalia and Tanzania.
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (more than 200 mm) expected over some parts of central and western Kenya, southern and eastern Ethiopia, and central and north-western Somalia.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Uganda, …
Temperature forecast
- Moderate temperatures (20-32 ℃) expected in most parts of the country.
Floods update
Floods Update
- Very heavy rainfall is likely to lead to flooding in the flood prone areas.
Temperature forecast
- Moderate temperatures (20-32 ℃) expected in most parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in north-eastern parts of the country.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over southern and north-western parts of the country.