Key messages

• Drought conditions continue to worsen in southern and south-eastern Ethiopia, the arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) of Kenya, and most of Somalia following four consecutive seasons of below-average rains.
• Agro-pastoral populations in Baidoa and Burhakaba districts, and displaced populations in Baidoa town of Bay region in Somalia, are projected to face Famine (IPC Phase 5) between October and December 2022 in the absence of significant, urgent and multi- sectoral humanitarian assistance.
• Hawd pastoral of Central and Hiraan, Addun pastoral of Northeast and Central, Coastal Deeh pastoral of Central and Sorghum high potential agro-pastoral of Middle Shabelle, and internally displaced persons (IDP) settlements in Dollow, Galkacyo, Garowe and Mogadishu in Somalia also face an increased Risk of Famine through at least the end of 2022.
• According to the IPC Global Support Unit (IPC-GSU) for East and Central Africa, at least 57 million people in 10 out of the 13 countries covered by the FSNWG were highly food insecure (IPC Phase 3+) and in need of urgent humanitarian assistance in August 2022. Of these, about 28 million were from six3 of the eight IGAD member states.
• The forecast for the 2022 October-December (OND) rainfall season indicates a high probability of below- average rains over the drought-affected parts of the region, increasing the risk of an unprecedented fifth consecutive season of below-average rainfall over these areas.
• High prevalences of acute malnutrition continue to be recorded across the region, especially in the drought-affected areas of Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and Uganda, and among displaced populations. As of August 2022, an estimated 10.1 million under-five children were acutely malnourished across the eight IGAD member states, 2.6 million of them severely so.
• The number of displaced populations in the region has been on an increasing trend, largely driven by conflict and climatic shocks. As of 31 July 2022, the region hosted an estimated 12.83 million IDPs and 4.97 million refugees and asylum seekers.