Weekly Forecast

At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.

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19 - 26 Oct 2021

Rainfall

Temperature

Temperature forecast

Temperature

  • Warmer than average temperatures are expected in most parts of the region except coastal regions of eastern Somalia, and regions within the Great Rift Valley, where temperature anomalies are expected to be cooler than usual.
  • Moderate temperatures between 20 - 32 ℃ are expected in Sudan, South Sudan, Djibouti, Eritrea, Somalia, north-eastern and south-eastern Ethiopia, much of Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania.
  • Relatively cold conditions with temperatures less than 20℃ are expected in central and northern Ethiopia, parts of central to western Kenya, and a few regions in south-western Uganda, northern Somalia, western Rwanda, Burundi, and southern and northern Tanzania.
Heavy rainfall

Headline: Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected in parts of southern Somalia, a few areas in southern Uganda and western Rwanda. Temperatures are expected to be warmer than usual in most regions.

Rainfall

  • Heavy to very heavy rainfall (top 10-5% on record) is expected in parts Bakool, Bay and Gedo regions of southern Somalia, and a few areas in southern Uganda and western Rwanda. Some of these areas are forecast to receive total rainfall above 100mm.
  • Moderate rainfall between 50 - 100 mm expected in south-western South Sudan, southern Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, north-western Tanzania, a few regions in central and western Kenya, and parts of southern Somalia.
  • Light rainfall of less than 30 mm is expected over parts of central South Sudan, central and northern Uganda, south-eastern Ethiopia, central and southern Somalia, eastern parts of central to western Kenya, and northern Tanzania
  • Dry conditions are expected in Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, northern and central Ethiopia, north-western Somalia, north-western Kenya into eastern Uganda, and parts of central and southern Tanzania
Rainfall forecast

Headline: Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected in parts of southern Somalia, a few areas in southern Uganda and western Rwanda. Temperatures are expected to be warmer than usual in most regions.

Rainfall

  • Heavy to very heavy rainfall (top 10-5% on record) is expected in parts Bakool, Bay and Gedo regions of southern Somalia, and a few areas in southern Uganda and western Rwanda. Some of these areas are forecast to receive total rainfall above 100mm.
  • Moderate rainfall between 50 - 100 mm expected in south-western South Sudan, southern Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, north-western Tanzania, a few regions in central and western Kenya, and parts of southern Somalia.
  • Light rainfall of less than 30 mm is expected over parts of central South Sudan, central and northern Uganda, south-eastern Ethiopia, central and southern Somalia, eastern parts of central to western Kenya, and northern Tanzania
  • Dry conditions are expected in Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, northern and central Ethiopia, north-western Somalia, north-western Kenya into eastern Uganda, and parts of central and southern Tanzania

Weekly Forecasts

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Temperature forecast
Temperature forecast

Temperature

  • Warmer than average temperatures are expected in most parts of the region except coastal regions of eastern Somalia, and regions within the Great Rift Valley, where temperature anomalies are expected to be cooler than …
19 - 26 October 2021 Read More
Heavy rainfall
Heavy rainfall

Headline: Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected in parts of southern Somalia, a few areas in southern Uganda and western Rwanda. Temperatures are expected to be warmer than usual in most regions.

Rainfall

  • Heavy …
19 - 26 October 2021 Read More