Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
16 - 23 April 2024
Rainfall
Temperature
Exceptional rainfall
- Extremely Heavy rainfall (reaching top 1% on record) expected over isolated areas in central parts of Ethiopia and central to northern Kenya.
- Very Heavy rainfall (reaching top 5% on record) expected in most parts of southern and eastern Ethiopia into north-eastern Somalia, northern and western Kenya, and cross border regions of Rwanda-Burundi-Tanzania.
- Heavy rainfall (reaching top 10% on record) expected over northern and western Uganda, central to southern Somalia, and eastern Tanzania.
Floods Update
- Very heavy rainfall is likely to lead to flooding in the flood prone areas.
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of Ethiopia, Somalia, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya and northern and eastern Tanzania.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over central to western parts of South Sudan, parts of central to northern Tanzania and eastern Kenya.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures predicted over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures forecast over a few regions in eastern Sudan, western Eritrea, and cross border regions of South Sudan-Ethiopia.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (above 32℃) expected over cross border regions of Sudan and South Sudan.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of northern to central Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, and most parts of Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated levels of heat stress expected in southern parts of Somalia, Afar region in Ethiopia and northern parts of South Sudan.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (more than 200 mm) expected over parts of central to western Kenya, southern Ethiopia, Rwanda and Burundi.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya, central to southern Ethiopia, central to southern and north-western Somalia and northern and southern Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in most parts of Djibouti and Eritrea and parts of central to northern regions of South Sudan, north-eastern Somalia, central to western Tanzania and parts of eastern Kenya.
- Dry conditions expected over Sudan and parts of north-western Ethiopia and western Eritrea.
Weekly Forecasts
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Temperature forecast
- Moderate temperatures (20-32 ℃) expected in most parts of the country.
Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Extremely Heavy rainfall (reaching top 1% on record) expected over isolated areas in central parts of Ethiopia and central to northern Kenya.
- Very Heavy rainfall (reaching top 5% on record) expected in most …
Temperature forecast
- High temperatures (above 32℃) expected over northern regions of South Sudan.
- Moderate temperatures (20 - 32 ℃) expected over the rest of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Light rainfall expected in central to northern parts of the country, with moderate amounts in the southern regions.
Rainfall forecast
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in north-eastern parts of the country.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over southern and north-western parts of the country.
Floods update
Floods Update
- Very heavy rainfall is likely to lead to flooding in the flood prone areas.