Weekly Forecast

At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.

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20 - 27 April 2021

Rainfall

Temperature

Temperature forecast

Temperature Forecast

  • Warm temperatures above 32℃ are expected in northern and eastern South Sudan; parts of central, southern and eastern Sudan; parts of western and central Eritrea; and north-eastern Ethiopia.
  • Moderate temperatures between 20 - 32℃ are expected in northern Sudan, western South Sudan, Uganda, western and eastern Tanzania, northern and eastern Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, much of Eritrea, and southern, western and eastern Ethiopia. 
  • Relatively cold conditions with temperatures less than 20℃ are expected in central Ethiopia, central and south-western Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and parts of central and southern Tanzania.
Heavy rainfall

Rainfall Forecast

Headline: North-eastern Somalia continues to be dry, indicating risk for crops and water supply. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected in north-eastern Kenya, southern Ethiopia and south-western Somalia. 

  • Heavy to very heavy rainfall (top 10 to 5% on record) is expected in parts of Mandera county in Kenya, southern and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia, and Gedo, Bakool, Middle and Lower Shabelle states of Somalia. The weekly total rainfall in these regions is expected to be between 50 - 200 mm. 
  • Moderate rainfall between 50 - 100 mm is expected in Rwanda, Burundi, parts of north-western and eastern Tanzania, central and northern Kenya, central to southern Somalia, southern and central Ethiopia, south-eastern Sudan, western South Sudan, and western Uganda.
  • Light rainfall of less than 30 mm is expected in central and southern Tanzania, south-eastern and north-western Kenya, northern Somalia, many parts of Ethiopia, southern Sudan, eastern South Sudan, and eastern Uganda.
  • Dry conditions are expected in central and northern Sudan, much of Eritrea, Djibouti, north-eastern Somalia, parts of south-eastern and isolated regions in Kenya, South Sudan, and Tanzania.

Note: 1 mm of rainfall is equivalent to 1 litre of rainfall per square meter.  

Rainfall forecast

Rainfall Forecast

Headline: North-eastern Somalia continues to be dry, indicating risk for crops and water supply. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected in north-eastern Kenya, southern Ethiopia and south-western Somalia. 

  • Heavy to very heavy rainfall (top 10 to 5% on record) is expected in parts of Mandera county in Kenya, southern and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia, and Gedo, Bakool, Middle and Lower Shabelle states of Somalia. The weekly total rainfall in these regions is expected to be between 50 - 200 mm. 
  • Moderate rainfall between 50 - 100 mm is expected in Rwanda, Burundi, parts of north-western and eastern Tanzania, central and northern Kenya, central to southern Somalia, southern and central Ethiopia, south-eastern Sudan, western South Sudan, and western Uganda.
  • Light rainfall of less than 30 mm is expected in central and southern Tanzania, south-eastern and north-western Kenya, northern Somalia, many parts of Ethiopia, southern Sudan, eastern South Sudan, and eastern Uganda.
  • Dry conditions are expected in central and northern Sudan, much of Eritrea, Djibouti, north-eastern Somalia, parts of south-eastern and isolated regions in Kenya, South Sudan, and Tanzania.

Note: 1 mm of rainfall is equivalent to 1 litre of rainfall per square meter.  

Weekly Forecasts

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Temperature forecast
Temperature forecast

Temperature Forecast

  • Warm temperatures above 32℃ are expected in northern and eastern South Sudan; parts of central, southern and eastern Sudan; parts of western and central Eritrea; and north-eastern Ethiopia.
  • Moderate temperatures between 20 - …
20 - 27 April 2021 Read More
Heavy rainfall
Heavy rainfall

Rainfall Forecast

Headline: North-eastern Somalia continues to be dry, indicating risk for crops and water supply. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected in north-eastern Kenya, southern Ethiopia and south-western Somalia. 

  • Heavy to very heavy …
20 - 27 April 2021 Read More