Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
24 - 31 July 2024
Rainfall
Temperature
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall amounts exceeding the top 5% on record are expected in western and eastern Sudan, western Eritrea, eastern and northern Ethiopia, as well as in parts of central to western Kenya and north-eastern Uganda.
Floods Update
- The expected very heavy rainfall over few places in central to western Kenya, north-eastern Uganda, southern, eastern and northern Ethiopia, western Eritrea and western and eastern Sudan is likely to lead to flooding.
- Communities in the areas at risk are advised to exercise caution during this period.
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over parts of central, eastern and western Sudan, eastern South Sudan, western Eritrea, central to northern Ethiopia, and parts of Djibouti, north-western Somalia and central to western Kenya.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over south-western Sudan, western South Sudan, and a few areas in central Ethiopia and western Kenya.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts eastern and western Sudan.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (above 32℃) expected over most parts of northern Sudan, north-eastern Ethiopia and coastal regions of Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti and north-western Somalia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of central to southern Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, northern and eastern Kenya, Somalia, and western and eastern Tanzania.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over western Rwanda, Burundi, parts of northern to southern Tanzania, central to south-western Kenya and western Ethiopia.
Heat Stress
- Elevated levels of heat stress expected in northern Sudan, coastal regions of north-west Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and Sudan, and north-eastern Ethiopia.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) is expected in parts of the cross-border regions of north-western Ethiopia, south-eastern Sudan, and western Ethiopia.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of central to northern Uganda, central to western Kenya, South Sudan, central to western Ethiopia, western Eritrea and eastern and western regions of Sudan.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in coastal regions of Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, and parts of south-eastern Ethiopia and northern Sudan.
Weekly Forecasts
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Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts eastern and western Sudan.
Rainfall forecast
- Light rainfall is expected in most parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over parts of central, eastern and western Sudan, eastern South Sudan, western Eritrea, central to northern Ethiopia, and parts of Djibouti, north-western Somalia and central to western Kenya. …
Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall amounts exceeding the top 5% on record are expected in western and eastern Sudan, western Eritrea, eastern and northern Ethiopia, as well as in parts of central to western Kenya and north-eastern …
Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- Elevated levels of heat stress expected in northern Sudan, coastal regions of north-west Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and Sudan, and north-eastern Ethiopia.
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) is expected in parts of the cross-border regions of north-western Ethiopia, south-eastern Sudan, and western Ethiopia.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of central to northern Uganda, central …