Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
08 - 15 July 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over central to western Kenya, Uganda, eastern and south-western Ethiopia, eastern South Sudan, and central Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over western Eritrea, northern Ethiopia, south-western Sudan, and central to western South Sudan.
Temperature anomalies
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of eastern South Sudan into south-western Ethiopia, and parts of south-eastern and south-western Sudan.
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record)expected parts of southern Sudan, central to eastern South Sudan, western and northern Ethiopia, western Eritrea, and eastern Uganda into western Kenya.
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in west-central and central Sudan, north-eastern South Sudan, central Kenya, and eastern Ethiopia.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (> 32℃) expected in northern Sudan, the Red Sea coastal regions, north-eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, and north-western Somalia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts Somalia, eastern Ethiopia, central to southern Sudan, South Sudan, central to northern Uganda, eastern and northern Kenya, and western and eastern Tanzania.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over Rwanda, Burundi, southern Uganda, central to southern Tanzania, central to south-western Kenya, and central to western Ethiopia.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in northern Sudan, parts of the Red Sea coast and Afar region in Ethiopia.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (above 200mm)
- expected over isolated areas in central Ethiopia, north-eastern South Sudan, western Kenya and Darfur region in Sudan.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in central to southern Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, central to western Kenya, central to western Ethiopia, western Eritrea and north-western Somalia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over central to eastern Sudan, north-eastern and south-eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, northern and southern Somalia, Rwanda, part of western South Sudan, and areas in southern and northern Tanzania.
Weekly Forecasts
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Heavy rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record)expected over north-western Kenya, parts of central to eastern South Sudan, most parts of western Sudan, central to western Ethiopia, and western Eritrea.
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over L. Victoria Basin in Kenya, northern Uganda, several places in central and western South Sudan, western Ethiopia, and part of North Darfur.
- Less than usual rainfall expected …
Heavy rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record)expected parts of southern Sudan, central to eastern South Sudan, western and northern Ethiopia, western Eritrea, and eastern Uganda into western Kenya.
Heavy rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record)expected over western Ethiopia and isolated areas in South Sudan, Sudan and western Eritrea.
Heavy rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record)expected parts of southern Sudan, central to eastern South Sudan, western and northern Ethiopia, western Eritrea, and eastern Uganda into western Kenya.
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over parts of western Kenya, central to northern Uganda, southwestern Ethiopia, southern and central Sudan and most parts of South Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over a …