Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
16 - 23 April 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, Kenya, parts of southern to central regions of Ethiopia and southern parts of Somalia.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over parts of central South Sudan, south-eastern Ethiopia and central to southern Somalia.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the Eritrea, Djibouti, Tanzania, eastern Ethiopia and central to northern Somalia.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over most parts of Sudan, eastern South Sudan into south-western Ethiopia, and northern regions of Uganda and Kenya.
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record)expected over parts of northern and southern Tanzania.
- There is a likelihood of isolated flash flood incidents over parts of south-western Ethiopia, most parts of Kenya, northern and eastern Tanzania, and parts of Uganda, Rwanda and northern Burundi.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (> 32℃) expected in cross-border regions of Sudan and South Sudan, and Ethiopia and Eritrea.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda, central to western Kenya, and central Ethiopia.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in most parts of South Sudan, eastern Kenya, eastern Tanzania, central to southern Somalia, and southern regions of Sudan, and coastal regions of Eritrea.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, and south-western parts of Ethiopia and Somalia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of South Sudan, central Ethiopia and central to northern coastal regions of Somalia.
Weekly Forecasts
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Heavy rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record)expected over parts of northern and southern Tanzania.
Heavy rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over parts of northern and eastern Tanzania.
Heavy rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record)expected over parts of northern and southern Tanzania.