Weekly Forecast

At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.

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28 June - 05 July 2022

Rainfall

Temperature

Temperature forecast (Anomalies)

Temperature anomalies 

  • Warmer than average temperatures expected in most parts of the region except areas of western Sudan and cross-border regions of Kenya-Ethiopia-Somalia where cooler than average temperatures are expected.
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)

Rainfall anomalies

  • Wetter than average conditions expected over most parts of central and western Sudan and south-western Ethiopia.
  • Drier than average conditions predicted over most parts of South Sudan and Uganda, parts of western Kenya, southern South Sudan, northern Ethiopia, and western Eritrea.

Exceptional rainfall

  • Heavy to very heavy (top 10-5%) rainfall expected over eastern and western parts of South Sudan, western Ethiopia, south-eastern Sudan, and parts of central Kenya.
Temperature forecast

Mean temperature

  • Hot conditions (above 32 ℃) expected over central and northern Sudan, Afar region in north-eastern Ethiopia, coastal Eritrea, Djibouti, and north-western coastal regions of Somalia.
  • Moderate temperatures (20 - 32 ℃) expected over southern, western and coastal Sudan, South Sudan, central to northern Uganda, north-eastern and south-eastern Ethiopia, Somalia, northern and eastern Kenya, and parts of western and eastern Tanzania.
  • Cold conditions (less than 20℃) expected in parts of central to southern Ethiopia, central to south-western Kenya, southern Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and parts of northern, central, and southern Tanzania.
Rainfall forecast

Total rainfall

  • Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) predicted over parts of central Ethiopia.
  • Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over southern Sudan into northern South Sudan, western Ethiopia, and north-western Eritrea.
  • Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over central Sudan, southern South Sudan, north-eastern Uganda, western and coastal Kenya, southern Somalia, and eastern and southern Tanzania.
  • Dry conditions expected over northern Sudan, parts of southern Eritrea, north-eastern and south-eastern Ethiopia, northern Somalia, northern, eastern, and south-eastern Kenya, southern Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and central to western Tanzania.

Weekly Forecasts

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Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)

Temperature anomalies 

  • Warmer than average temperatures expected in most parts of the region except areas of western Sudan and cross-border regions of Kenya-Ethiopia-Somalia where cooler than average temperatures are expected.
28 - 5 July 2022 Read More
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)

Rainfall anomalies

  • Wetter than average conditions expected over most parts of central and western Sudan and south-western Ethiopia.
  • Drier than average conditions predicted over most parts of South Sudan and Uganda, parts of western Kenya, …
28 - 5 July 2022 Read More
Heavy rainfall

Exceptional rainfall

  • Heavy to very heavy (top 10-5%) rainfall expected over eastern and western parts of South Sudan, western Ethiopia, south-eastern Sudan, and parts of central Kenya.
28 - 5 July 2022 Read More
Temperature forecast
Temperature forecast

Mean temperature

  • Hot conditions (above 32 ℃) expected over central and northern Sudan, Afar region in north-eastern Ethiopia, coastal Eritrea, Djibouti, and north-western coastal regions of Somalia.
  • Moderate temperatures (20 - 32 ℃) expected over …
28 - 5 July 2022 Read More