Weekly Forecast

At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.

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08 - 15 July 2025

Rainfall

Temperature

Rainfall forecast (anomalies)

Rainfall anomalies

  • More than usual rainfall expected over central to western Kenya, Uganda, eastern and south-western Ethiopia, eastern South Sudan, and central Sudan.   
  • Less than usual rainfall expected over western Eritrea, northern Ethiopia, south-western Sudan, and central to western South Sudan.  
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)

Temperature anomalies

  • Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of eastern South Sudan into south-western Ethiopia, and parts of south-eastern and south-western Sudan. 
  • Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
Heavy rainfall
  • Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record)expected parts of southern Sudan, central to eastern South Sudan, western and northern Ethiopia, western Eritrea, and eastern Uganda into western Kenya.  
Floods update
  • There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in west-central and central Sudan, north-eastern South Sudan, central Kenya, and eastern Ethiopia.
Temperature forecast

Mean temperatures

  • High temperatures (> 32℃) expected in northern Sudan, the Red Sea coastal regions, north-eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, and north-western Somalia. 
  • Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts Somalia, eastern Ethiopia, central to southern Sudan, South Sudan, central to northern Uganda, eastern and northern Kenya, and western and eastern Tanzania.        
  • Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over Rwanda, Burundi, southern Uganda, central to southern Tanzania, central to south-western Kenya, and central to western Ethiopia. 
Heat Stress

Heat Stress

  • Elevated heat stress levels expected in northern Sudan, parts of the Red Sea coast and Afar region in Ethiopia.  
Rainfall forecast

Total rainfall

  • Heavy rainfall (above 200mm)
  • expected over isolated areas in central Ethiopia, north-eastern South Sudan, western Kenya and Darfur region in Sudan. 
  • Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in central to southern Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, central to western Kenya, central to western Ethiopia, western Eritrea and north-western Somalia. 
  • Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over central to eastern Sudan, north-eastern and south-eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, northern and southern Somalia, Rwanda, part of western South Sudan, and areas in southern and northern Tanzania. 

Weekly Forecasts

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Heavy rainfall
Heavy rainfall
  • Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record)expected over north-western Kenya, parts of central to eastern South Sudan, most parts of western Sudan, central to western Ethiopia, and western Eritrea.   
24 - 1 July 2025 Read More
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)

Rainfall anomalies

  • More than usual rainfall expected over L. Victoria Basin in Kenya, northern Uganda, several places in central and western South Sudan, western Ethiopia, and part of North Darfur. 
  • Less than usual rainfall expected …
24 - 1 July 2025 Read More
Heavy rainfall
Heavy rainfall
  • Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record)expected parts of southern Sudan, central to eastern South Sudan, western and northern Ethiopia, western Eritrea, and eastern Uganda into western Kenya. 
24 - 1 July 2025 Read More
Heavy rainfall
Heavy rainfall
  • Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record)expected over western Ethiopia and isolated areas in South Sudan, Sudan and western Eritrea.
24 - 1 July 2025 Read More
Heavy rainfall
Heavy rainfall
  • Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record)expected parts of southern Sudan, central to eastern South Sudan, western and northern Ethiopia, western Eritrea, and eastern Uganda into western Kenya.  
24 - 1 July 2025 Read More
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)

Rainfall anomalies

  • More than usual rainfall expected over parts of western Kenya, central to northern Uganda, southwestern Ethiopia, southern and central Sudan and most parts of South Sudan.  
  • Less than usual rainfall expected over a …
24 - 1 July 2025 Read More