Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
October - December 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Southern Ethiopia, Somalia and cross border areas of Kenya, Uganda, and South Sudan are expected to experience maximum dry days of 8 to 10 days.
- Long wet spells expected over parts of Rwanda, Burundi, and Lake Victoria Regions in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.
- Onset expected to start in September and progress southwards following the southward progression of the rain band
- A delayed onset is expected in the western parts of the region, while early onset is expected in the eastern and southern parts
- Higest probability of seasonal rainfall exceeding 400 mm indicated over southern Somalia, southern Kenya, south-eastern Uganda, Burundi and north-western Tanzania
- Above normal temperatures are expected across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, with particularly high probabilities in Somalia, Ethiopia and coastal regions.
- Increased likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions are predicted over most parts of the region with the highest probabilities over north-eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia and south eastern Ethiopia
- The rest of the region indicates dominant probabilities of 55-85% of Above –normal rainfall
Seasonal forecasts
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Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the northern sectors of the region, specifically in much of Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, Uganda, and western and coastal Kenya.
- Drier than usual …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures indicated over the whole region.
- The highest probabilities are indicated over parts of Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, eastern Kenya and coastal Tanzania.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the southern parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over localized areas over the north western parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over northern and southern parts of the country bordering Ethiopia.
- Average conditions expected over central and southern coastal areas of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions predicted over central to eastern Sudan, central Ethiopia, parts of northern and southern South Sudan, eastern Uganda, and parts of western Kenya.
- Usual conditions expected over much of Sudan, central South …
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than normal conditions expected over north-western, northern and southern areas of the country.
- Average conditions expected over isolated areas in north-western and south-eastern parts of the country.
- Wetter than average conditions expected over isolated …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected all over the region with highest probabilities over Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, western South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, much of Kenya, and eastern Tanzania.
- Usual temperatures likely to be recorded over central …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected all over the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected all over the country with highest probabilities over the western parts.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than normal conditions expected over south-eastern parts of Ethiopia and central Somalia.
- Normal conditions expected over parts of northern Sudan, Eritrea, western South Sudan, northern and southern Somalia, southern Kenya, southern Uganda, isolated parts …
