Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
October-December 2023
Rainfall
Temperature
- Longer-than-usual wet spells expected over southern Somalia, much of Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and western Tanzania.
- Early onset expected over the eastern parts of the region.
- Delayed onset expected over the western areas of the region.
- High chances of exceeding 300 mm over southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, southern Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and western Tanzania
- Early onset forecasted over the eastern parts of the region, with high probabilities over parts of eastern Kenya, Tanzania, and southern Somalia.
- Delayed onset expected over western parts of the region.
Warmer than usual season expected over most parts of the region
- Warmer-than-usual conditions expected across the GHA.
- Enhanced probabilities for warmer-than-usual temperatures over parts of Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Djibouti.
- High chances of cooler-than-usual temperatures indicated over eastern parts of Kenya.
Wetter than normal season expected over most parts of the region
- Wetter-than-usual conditions expected over most parts of the region.
- Higher chances of wetter-than-usual conditions indicated over the eastern parts of the region.
- Drier-than-usual conditions expected over south-western parts of Uganda and isolated areas in western South Sudan.
Seasonal forecasts
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Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over northern and southern parts of the country bordering Ethiopia.
- Average conditions expected over central and southern coastal areas of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions predicted over central to eastern Sudan, central Ethiopia, parts of northern and southern South Sudan, eastern Uganda, and parts of western Kenya.
- Usual conditions expected over much of Sudan, central South …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected all over the region with highest probabilities over Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, western South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, much of Kenya, and eastern Tanzania.
- Usual temperatures likely to be recorded over central …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected all over the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected all over the country with highest probabilities over the western parts.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than normal conditions expected over north-western, northern and southern areas of the country.
- Average conditions expected over isolated areas in north-western and south-eastern parts of the country.
- Wetter than average conditions expected over isolated …
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than normal conditions expected over south-eastern parts of Ethiopia and central Somalia.
- Normal conditions expected over parts of northern Sudan, Eritrea, western South Sudan, northern and southern Somalia, southern Kenya, southern Uganda, isolated parts …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected over eastern and northern parts of the region specifically over much of Somalia, south-eastern Ethiopia, southern Djibouti, eastern Kenya and Tanzania, and northern parts of Sudan.
- Cooler than normal conditions …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions were expected over the eastern and north-western parts of the country.
- Usual conditions were expected over the central and south-western parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions are likely over few places in the southern, central and north-western parts of the country.
- Usual conditions expected over the rest of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions were expected over the whole country.