Key messages

• Drought conditions continued to worsen in southern and south-eastern Ethiopia, the arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) of Kenya and across most of Somalia following the reality of a fourth consecutive season of below-average rains (the 2022 March-May (MAM) rainfall season).
• According to the IPC Global Support Unit (IPC-GSU) for East and Central Africa, an estimated 53 million people in 10 of the 13 countries covered by the FSNWG were highly food insecure (IPC2 Phase 3+) and in need of urgent humanitarian assistance in May 2022. Of these, about 24 million were from six of the eight IGAD member states.
• The number of children requiring treatment for acute malnutrition continued to increase sharply across the region, especially in the drought and conflict-affected areas. Compared to similar periods in the past few years, malnutrition cases were up significantly in most countries.
• Food prices remained elevated across most parts of the region due to the compounding impact of the ongoing drought and macroeconomic challenges, including a steep rise in global food prices, coupled with the unfavourable effects of the Ukraine crisis on the supply and prices of fuel and food commodities such as wheat and cooking oil.
• Wetter than usual conditions are forecast over most parts of the northern Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region during the 2022 June-September (JJAS) rainfall season, while drier than normal conditions are forecast in localised areas in south-eastern Ethiopia, over coastal Kenya, and in the southern coast of Somalia.
• Early forecasts for the 2022 October-December (OND) rainfall season indicate drier than normal conditions over the equatorial and southern parts of the region. If this materialises, it will extend the already severe drought in the region.