About 56 million people in 10 of the 13 countries covered by the FSNWG were highly food insecure (IPC2 Phase 3+) and in need of urgent assistance in October 2021. Of these, about 27 million were from seven of the eight IGAD member states.
Malnutrition remains of concern as Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) admissions increased over the first half of 2021 compared to last year, driven mainly by Ethiopia and South Sudan.
Staple food prices are up significantly compared to the five-year average in Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Burundi, and parts of southern Somalia, and are up moderately in Uganda. Of particular concern are areas worst affected by drought in Somalia which have experienced sharp increases, larger than those observed during the 2011 and 2017 drought emergencies.
There are 4.79 million refugees and asylum seekers and 10.59 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) across the region. Currently, food ration cuts have affected over 3.4 million (75%) refugees and are driving deteriorations in food security and nutritional outcomes.
The start of the October-December 2021 rainy season has been delayed with little to no rainfall observed across much of eastern and northern Kenya, southern and central Somalia, southern Ethiopia, bimodal areas of northern Tanzania, and localized areas of Uganda. Given forecasts of continued below average rains, there is an increased likelihood that the magnitude of food insecurity and malnutrition will grow significantly during the first half of 2022.