FSNWG Climate Alert October 2021
Two consecutive poor rainy seasons in parts of the East Africa region, particularly, eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, and certain Belg-receiving areas of Ethiopia have resulted in below-average crop production, poor rangeland conditions, and rising cereal prices across these areas.
The IGAD Climate Predication and Applications Center (ICPAC) and other global forecasts (NOAA, ECMWF, UK MET, IRI) point to a grimmer situation, characterized by a below-average rainy season between October-December 2021. Short-term forecasts through late October also confirm a likely poor start of the season while current ENSO forecast-based climate analogs indicate elevated chances of below-average seasonal rainfall performance during the March-April-May (MAM) 2022 season over some parts of the region.
In the absence of immediate action, the magnitude of food insecurity and malnutrition across Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia will likely grow.
FSNWG calls for partners and governments to urgently put in place anticipatory action programmes, including safety nets, to protect affected households from the expected impacts of the ongoing poor rainy season. There is need for close monitoring of forecast updates, seasonal progress, and food security outcomes as well as significant scale-up of contributions to existing and future humanitarian response plans as the response to date remains underfunded.
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