Key messages

• The October-December 2025 rainy season has essentially failed across much of Somalia, eastern Kenya, and southern Ethiopia. Recovery through late season rains in December is now impossible, marking the second or third consecutive poor season for many affected areas. 
• Crop and pastoral conditions are poor across the region. Kenya faces crop failure or very low yields, while in Ethiopia, poor seasonal rains across the southern pastoral areas are negatively affecting livestock-based livelihoods. In Somalia, over 185,000 people have been displaced by drought, with widespread crop failures and very poor pastoral conditions reported. Somalia declared a drought emergency on 10 November 2025.
• Food insecurity will worsen significantly in early 2026 during the upcoming pastoral lean season that peaks from February to March and the agropastoral lean season that peaks from April to June, with households facing poor harvests, depleted food stocks, reduced milk production, livestock deaths, and rising acute malnutrition among children.
• Immediate action is critical. Livelihood support to help communities mitigate the impacts of the ongoing poor rainy season should be implemented now, and planning for life-saving emergency response to reduce food consumption gaps and to prevent and treat acute malnutrition should begin immediately.