While ENSO neutral conditions currently prevail after the strong 2023/24 El Niño event, most climate prediction centers are forecasting the emergence of a La Niña episode by October - December,1 combined with above-normal sea surface temperatures in the eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans.

Key messages

• With varying degrees of certainty, climate models predict a transition to La Niña conditions during the second half of 2024, which would likely bring below-average rainfall to the eastern Horn of Africa. The greatest impacts are expected in central and southern Somalia, southern Ethiopia, and the arid and semi-arid lands of Kenya.
• Should below-average rains materialize, crop failures, deteriorating pastoral conditions, water shortages, atypical livestock movements, increased disease outbreaks, and heightened food insecurity and malnutrition are likely.
• Humanitarian partners should engage with local and national governments to support their contingency planning, the implementation of preparedness activities and the identification of anticipatory actions to mitigate the impacts of potential below-average rains.

*NOTE: The humanitarian community should also closely monitor seasonal forecast updates, including the upcoming Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF), scheduled for 19 - 20 August 2024, which will provide a regionally downscaled and more detailed rainfall outlook for the October - December deyr/hageya/short rainy season.