While El Niño events often receive the most global attention, El Niño/La Niña is not the only climate driver that is important for potential rainfall outcomes in East Africa between September and December. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event has recently developed, as announced by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, increasing the chances for highly above- average rainfall in eastern areas (eastern Kenya, Somalia, and southeastern Ethiopia). A positive IOD can often co-occur with El Niño and can make wet outcomes more likely due to above- normal sea surface temperatures, enhancing convection in the western tropical Indian Ocean and wind patterns that bring in higher moisture levels into the region.

The  joint special report is compiled by several FSNWG partner agencies.