Desert Locust Prediction 16-30 June
Adult swarms are being reported in the areas where hoppers have not been effectively controlled.
Projected impact on food and fodder production
- Adult swarms are being reported in the areas where hoppers have not been effectively controlled.
- More hopper hatching has been reported in northern Kenya, eastern Ethiopia, central and western Somalia.
- The risk of significant impact to both crops and rangelands is very high due to the increased likelihood of swarms migrating. Agro-pastoral areas of Turkana in Kenya already have reported an impact on crops in areas where the hopper bands have hatched. Most agropastoral areas in vegetative stages of crop development are at a high risk of potential damage to seasonal crops and regenerating pastures.
Desert Locust Spread and Prediction
- In the current desert locust invasion areas of Eastern Africa, the conditions for hatching of locust eggs into a second generation hoppers has been suitable where eggs were laid.
- Hoppers have been reported in most areas where adult swarms managed to lay eggs since March.
- With most swarms dying off after reproduction and also due to intensified control, hoppers have begun emerging in many locations and young gregarious adults have also been reported.
- More locations for both desert locust hopper groups and adult swarms have been reported in Turkana and Marsabit and Ethiopia in the Ogaden and Dire Dawa. Hopper bands have also been recorded in multiple areas of Afar, Tigray and Somali regions of Ethiopia. In Somalia Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Mudug, Nugaal, Sool and Sanaag have hopper groups reported.
Climatic conditions are forecasted to be highly suitable for desert locust development in southern areas of Sudan, the entire South Sudan, southern, eastern and western Ethiopia, northeastern Somalia and northern Kenya.
Ecological conditions (particularly the availability of green vegetation) are most suitable in parts of Kenya, South Sudan, Ethiopia and Somalia due to a continuation of rainfall received in the season which enhanced vegetation regrowth.
Wind direction and speed, which greatly determines swarm movement is forecasted to be south easterly and south westerly in Somalia. This lowers risk for an invasion for the southern and equatorial subregion.
Desert locusts are projected to move from:
- Turkana areas of Kenya to and through South Sudan and to southern areas of Sudan,
- south to western and north eastern Ethiopia particularly Somali region,
- north-eastern Ethiopia to northern Ethiopia more areas of Afar and Tigray.
- Intermittent multi-directional winds might favour swarms to move in opposing directions
- during the projection period