Drier than usual conditions with warmer than average Temperatures expected in the Greater Horn of Africa
© Canva
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 19 May 2026: The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), together with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) from member states, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and partners, have issued the regional climate outlook for the June to September (JJAS) 2026 rainfall season during the 73rd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 73), held from 18–19 May 2026.
Rainfall Outlook
- The June to September (JJAS) 2026 rainfall outlook indicates a high likelihood of below-normal rainfall across most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, where JJAS is the main season, particularly in South Sudan, Uganda, Ethiopia, Djibouti, much of Eritrea, Sudan and western and coastal Kenya.
- The highest likelihood of below-normal rainfall is projected over central, northeastern and northwestern Ethiopia, southern Sudan, and northern Uganda, where probabilities exceed 60%, with peaks reaching up to 80% in northeastern Ethiopia.
- In contrast, isolated areas in northern Sudan, southeastern Ethiopia, and southern and northern Somalia are expected to receive enhanced rainfall.
- Areas of northern Sudan, southern coastal Somalia and Kenya are expected to receive near-normal rainfall.
- The forecast indicates an enhanced likelihood of a late onset in parts of South Sudan, Ethiopia and southern Sudan. In contrast, a few localised areas, particularly over north-central Ethiopia and parts of central Sudan, are expected to experience near normal to earlier-than-normal onset.
Temperature Outlook
- The temperature outlook indicates a higher likelihood of above-normal temperatures across most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa. The highest probabilities of warmer-than-normal conditions are indicated over northern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan, and Ethiopia. The forecast points to a dominant warmer-than-usual season, with very low chances of below-normal temperatures across the region.
The evolving 2026 climate conditions closely resemble those experienced during the strong El Niño years of 1997 and 2023. During both analogue years, several parts of Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda, and western Kenya recorded below-normal rainfall during the June–September season, similar to the conditions currently forecast for 2026. These past years provide useful guidance for preparedness and anticipatory action; however, this seasonal forecast remains the main reference for planning and decision-making.
The forecast below-normal rainfall may have implications, particularly across key sectors with likely impacts on rainfed agriculture, water availability, livestock systems, hydropower generation, food security, conflict, and public health. Stakeholders are therefore encouraged to utilise the forecast information and advisories to support early action, risk reduction, and climate-informed planning.
ICPAC will continue to provide regular regional updates, while NMHSs will issue detailed country-specific forecasts and advisories.
Speaking during the opening of GHACOF 73, H.E. Mohamed Abdi Ware, the IGAD Deputy Executive Secretary, emphasised the need to translate climate information into timely action and preparedness measures across the region. “Across the region, we are increasingly shifting the conversation from ‘early warning’ to ‘early warning linked to anticipatory action,’ recognising that climate information must ultimately support action and preparedness to make a difference.”
Mr Fetene Teshome, Director General of the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute, called for sustained investment in climate services and regional cooperation to strengthen resilience across the Greater Horn of Africa. “We must continue to invest in and expand systems capable of generating knowledge-based, user-tailored climate information at both the national and regional levels.”
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Note to Editors:
GHACOF 73 was convened as a hybrid event on the 18th and 19th of May, 2026. The Forum was attended by representatives from the 11 Member States of the Greater Horn of Africa region (Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda), alongside national representatives from key sectors (agriculture and food security, livestock, water resources, health, disaster risk management, conflict, climate change and media), NGOs, humanitarian agencies, media, and development partners.
For media interviews and requests, please contact:
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Edwin Kiplagat: +254 724 874 765 | edwin.kiplagat@igad.int