Wetter than usual season is expected over the northern part of the region
A wetter than usual June to September season is expected over Sudan, South Sudan, most of Ethiopia, and Uganda, indicating good prospects for pasture and crop production. The season is expected to start early in western Ethiopia, southern and western Sudan, southern Eritrea, northern South Sudan and Uganda, and late in eastern Ethiopia, northern Eritrea, and north-eastern Sudan.
27th of May 2021, The upcoming rainfall season, June to September is an important rainfall season for Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eritrea, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda. For some of these countries it is the main farming season for their staple crops.
A wetter than usual season is expected in Djibouti, Eritrea, much of the northern two-thirds of Ethiopia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda. The Karamoja Cluster, which covers parts of Ethiopia, Kenya, South Sudan, and Uganda is expected to experience a wetter than usual season. The forecast indicates a 15% higher than usual chance of receiving more than 400 mm accumulated rainfall during June to September over central Sudan and 5% increased chance of exceeding 400 mm over western Ethiopia and western South Sudan. Albeit the expected wetter than usual season over western Ethiopia and southern parts of Sudan, there is a chance of having more than usual dry spells.
An earlier than usual start of the season is expected over western Ethiopia, eastern South Sudan and southern parts of Sudan. A delayed start to the season is expected in the eastern areas of the region including margins of northern Sudan, northern and eastern Eritrea, north-eastern and eastern Ethiopia, and northern Somalia.
Warmer than usual temperatures are expected over northern Sudan, eastern Eritrea, most parts of Ethiopia and Somalia, eastern Kenya, and eastern Tanzania. On the other hand, southern Sudan, much of South Sudan, western half of Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and western parts of Tanzania are expected to experience cooler than usual temperatures.
The expected wetter than usual season is likely to increase the risk of vector prone diseases. Considering the ongoing simultaneous emergencies impacting the region, including the COVID19 pandemic, regional and national authorities are encouraged to use this seasonal forecast to develop contingency plans, and to update them with weekly and monthly forecasts provided by ICPAC and National Meteorological Services.
Note to editors: The 58th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF58) was convened online on the 27th of May by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) in collaboration with the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in the region and other partners to issue the June to September 2021 rainy season forecast for the region. The virtual forum brought together climate services providers and users from key socio-economic sectors, governmental and non-governmental organizations, decision-makers, climate scientists, and civil society stakeholders, among others, to discuss impacts and mitigation measures for the upcoming season.
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- Rainfall Forecast
- Temperature Forecast
- Onset Dates
- Onset Date Anomaly
- Dry/Wet Spells
- Probability of Exceedance
- Technical Statement
A Summary for Decision Makers with impacts and advisories for the following sectors will be released in the coming days:
- Agriculture and Food Security
- Water and Energy
- Conflict Early Warning
- Disaster Risk Management
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