Re-engineering the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forums (GHACOFs)

By Melissa Ouya

Introduction 

This year, the IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Center (ICPAC) celebrated the 25th anniversary of the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forums (GHACOF). Throughout sixty-five successful forums, GHACOF has played a crucial role in disseminating seasonal forecasts, providing early warning, facilitating informed decision-making, and fostering stakeholder collaboration. However, given the continuously evolving nature of climate issues, there is a recognized need for the re-engineering of GHACOF to ensure sustained impact in addressing the complex challenges posed by climate variability and change in the Greater Horn of Africa. 

The eighth Down2Earth  monthly seminar series ‘Can We Talk?’ themed ‘ Re-engineering the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forums held on 7th November 2023, focused on exploring ways to improve and enhance the region's existing framework and processes of the climate outlook forums.

In evaluating the effectiveness of the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF), it is imperative to scrutinize the engagement of participants and stakeholders to ensure a comprehensive and inclusive approach. A critical consideration involves assessing whether the forum effectively involves the right regional and national actors, guaranteeing representation from diverse sectors and expertise. The key aspect of this evaluation should delve into whether the focal points align with those stipulated in the national framework for climate services, ensuring consistency and collaboration between the regional and national levels.

The Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) processes, especially the sector impact reporting mechanism, necessitate a thorough examination of the support from national institutions in facilitating such reporting. It is important to assess the level of engagement and backing from these institutions to ensure a robust and comprehensive understanding of the climate impacts across various sectors. The coordination of sector preparations, which should ideally overlap with one another, requires scrutiny to identify potential gaps and areas of improvement. The co-production processes within GHACOF demand careful examination to discern any disparities and similarities, thereby fostering a collaborative and harmonized approach to climate information generation. Furthermore, the efficacy of seasonal advisories must be scrutinized to ascertain their responsiveness to regional needs. A clear focus is imperative to prevent duplication of efforts and to streamline resources effectively, ensuring that the advisory outputs align with the unique climate challenges faced by the Greater Horn of Africa region.

Enhancing climate information involves providing forecasts and data well in advance, enabling users to make informed decisions and plan interventions with greater precision. In particular, understanding the drivers of the March to May (MAM) season is essential, as this period holds significant climatic implications. By delving into the intricate factors influencing MAM, such as temperature patterns, precipitation trends, and atmospheric circulation, climate information can be fortified with a comprehension of the specific challenges and opportunities associated with this critical season. Strengthening climate information, especially regarding lead times and the drivers of key seasons like MAM, empowers decision-makers, policymakers, and communities to proactively respond to climate variability and make informed choices for sustainable development and adaptation. The institutionalization of the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) signifies a critical step towards establishing a robust and enduring regional framework for climate services. This process involves integrating GHACOF into the institutional fabric of the region, ensuring its sustained operation and impact. Establishing a formalized structure for GHACOF within the broader context of a regional framework for climate services provides a systematic approach to addressing climate-related challenges.

Matters Arising 

A climate literacy campaign is essential at all levels to ensure widespread understanding of the complex and urgent issues surrounding climate change. In educational institutions, from schools to universities, a climate literacy initiative fosters a generation equipped with the knowledge to address environmental challenges and develop innovative solutions. At the community level, such campaigns promote collective action, encouraging neighborhoods and localities to implement sustainable practices and advocate for climate-friendly policies. Moreover, fostering climate literacy at the governmental and policy-making levels is crucial for informed decision-making, ensuring that leaders prioritize environmental sustainability in legislation and international agreements. 

The IGAD Regional Climate Services Framework (RCSF) for 2017 serves as a foundational guide for enhancing climate services in the Greater Horn of Africa. In alignment with the RCSF, the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) strategically re-engineered its approach to climate forecasting and adaptation. This involves reviewing and assessing regional climate challenges, aligning GHACOF objectives with RCSF priorities, and implementing capacity-building initiatives. The framework emphasizes improved data sharing, incorporation of indigenous knowledge, adoption of technological innovations, and policy advocacy. By following the guidance provided by the RCSF, GHACOF aims to create a more coordinated and effective regional response to climate variability and change, fostering collaboration, and enhancing the accuracy of climate predictions through advanced technologies and inclusive approaches. The assessment of products effectiveness serves as a critical component in enhancing the overall impact of the forums. This involves a systematic collection and interpretation of information regarding the performance of climate outlook products. The process entails evaluating how these products have been interpreted by stakeholders and, more importantly, how they have been acted upon. To achieve this, comprehensive data on the utilization of climate information and its impact on decision-making should be gathered.

Establishing linkages with national levels and maintaining consistency in messaging are crucial elements for effective communication and coordination in any system.  National-level linkages ensure that climate information generated at regional or global levels is seamlessly integrated into the specific context of individual countries. Moreover, maintaining consistency in messaging across different levels helps build trust and understanding among stakeholders. When messages align cohesively, from international organizations to national agencies, and down to local communities, it reduces confusion and facilitates a more coordinated response. Consistent messaging enhances the overall impact of climate information, fostering a unified approach to climate resilience and adaptation efforts. This synergy between national and international levels, along with message consistency, is pivotal for promoting effective collaboration, informed decision-making, and ultimately, building resilience to climate-related challenges

Conclusion 

In Conclusion, significant progress has been made by the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forums over the last twenty-five years. Looking forward, there is a need to re-engineer these forums for better provision of climate services in the region. The next CWT session will be held next year to reflecting on where we are and brainstorming on how to better the sessions.