The Greater Horn of Africa is bracing for a 5th consecutive failed rainy season
25th August 2022, Mombasa, Kenya: IGAD’S Climate Prediction and Applications Centre
(ICPAC) today announced that the October to December (OND) 2022 forecast shows
high chances of drier than average conditions across most parts of the Greater Horn of
Africa. In particular, the drought affected regions of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia are
expected to receive insufficient rainfall until the end of the year.
These poor conditions are likely to extend to parts of Eritrea, most of Uganda and
Tanzania, whereas Djibouti, the eastern Afar region of Ethiopia, and central to northeastern
South Sudan could receive above average precipitation. Temperatures are
expected to remain warmer than average across most of the region.
Dr. Guleid Artan, ICPAC’s Director, reiterated the importance of the October to
December season in the equatorial parts of the Greater Horn of Africa where it
contributes up to 70% of the annual total rainfall, particularly in eastern Kenya. He
added: “It pains me to be the bearer of bad news, when millions of people in the region have
already suffered the longest drought in 40 years. Sadly, our models show with a high degree
of confidence that we are entering the 5th consecutive failed rainy season in the Horn of
Africa. In Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, we are on the brink of an unprecedented
humanitarian catastrophe”.
The severity of the situation was echoed by Dr Workneh Gebeyehu, Executive Secretary
of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD). He stated that “a month
ago, with our partners FAO and WFP, we told the world that 50 million people are expected to
face high levels of acute food insecurity* this year across seven IGAD countries**. Today,
considering this grim climate forecast, conflicts in the region and in Ukraine, and macroeconomic
challenges, I solemnly renew our call to national governments, donors,
humanitarian, and development actors to adopt a no-regret strategy and help us weather
the worst of this crisis.”
ICPAC also estimates that the start of the rainy season is likely to be delayed across much
of the eastern parts of the region, including southern Ethiopia, central and southern
Somalia, eastern Kenya, much of Burundi, and Tanzania. On the other hand, parts of
northern Somalia, western Kenya, Uganda, eastern South Sudan, Rwanda, and northern
Tanzania are indicated to experience a normal to early onset.
ICPAC is a designated Regional Climate Centre by the World Meteorological Organization.
Its seasonal forecast is based on an analysis of several global climate model predictions
customized for the Greater Horn of Africa. In this instance, seven out of the eight models
used by ICPAC’s scientists indicate a drier OND 2022 season, thus increasing the reliability
of the forecast.
- End -
*IPC Phase 3 or above. The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) is a set of
standardized tools used to classify the severity of food insecurity using a widely
accepted five-phase scale: Minimal (IPC Phase 1), Stressed (IPC Phase 2), Crisis (IPC
Phase 3), Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Catastrophe/Famine (IPC Phase 5).
**Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda.
Note to editors:
The 62nd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF62) was convened as a
hybrid event on 25th August 2022 by ICPAC (IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications
Centre) in collaboration with the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in the
region and other partners to issue the October - December 2022 seasonal forecast. The
forum brought together climate services providers and users from key socio-economic
sectors, governmental and non-governmental organizations, decision-makers, climate
scientists, and civil society stakeholders, among others, to discuss impacts and mitigation
measures for the upcoming season.
We encourage media and climate information users to consult our weekly and monthly
updates of the forecasted season: www.icpac.net
For downscaled information, please contact National Meteorological and Hydrological
Services.
ICPAC technical report for the OND season 2022
For media interviews and requests, please contact:
Nicolas Bellet: +254 110428270 nicolas.bellet@igad.int
Emebet Jigssa: +254 748108077 emebet.jigssa@igad.int
Paula Machio: +254 746511941 paula.machio@igad.int