The Greater Horn of Africa is bracing for a 5th consecutive failed rainy season

25 Aug, 2022 Press Release 173

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25th August 2022, Mombasa, Kenya: IGAD’S Climate Prediction and Applications Centre

(ICPAC) today announced that the October to December (OND) 2022 forecast shows

high chances of drier than average conditions across most parts of the Greater Horn of

Africa. In particular, the drought affected regions of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia are

expected to receive insufficient rainfall until the end of the year.

These poor conditions are likely to extend to parts of Eritrea, most of Uganda and

Tanzania, whereas Djibouti, the eastern Afar region of Ethiopia, and central to northeastern

South Sudan could receive above average precipitation. Temperatures are

expected to remain warmer than average across most of the region.

Dr. Guleid Artan, ICPAC’s Director, reiterated the importance of the October to

December season in the equatorial parts of the Greater Horn of Africa where it

contributes up to 70% of the annual total rainfall, particularly in eastern Kenya. He

added: “It pains me to be the bearer of bad news, when millions of people in the region have

already suffered the longest drought in 40 years. Sadly, our models show with a high degree

of confidence that we are entering the 5th consecutive failed rainy season in the Horn of

Africa. In Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, we are on the brink of an unprecedented

humanitarian catastrophe”.

The severity of the situation was echoed by Dr Workneh Gebeyehu, Executive Secretary

of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD). He stated that “a month

ago, with our partners FAO and WFP, we told the world that 50 million people are expected to

face high levels of acute food insecurity* this year across seven IGAD countries**. Today,

considering this grim climate forecast, conflicts in the region and in Ukraine, and macroeconomic

challenges, I solemnly renew our call to national governments, donors,

humanitarian, and development actors to adopt a no-regret strategy and help us weather

the worst of this crisis.”

ICPAC also estimates that the start of the rainy season is likely to be delayed across much

of the eastern parts of the region, including southern Ethiopia, central and southern

Somalia, eastern Kenya, much of Burundi, and Tanzania. On the other hand, parts of

northern Somalia, western Kenya, Uganda, eastern South Sudan, Rwanda, and northern

Tanzania are indicated to experience a normal to early onset.

ICPAC is a designated Regional Climate Centre by the World Meteorological Organization.

Its seasonal forecast is based on an analysis of several global climate model predictions

customized for the Greater Horn of Africa. In this instance, seven out of the eight models

used by ICPAC’s scientists indicate a drier OND 2022 season, thus increasing the reliability

of the forecast.

- End -

*IPC Phase 3 or above. The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) is a set of

standardized tools used to classify the severity of food insecurity using a widely

accepted five-phase scale: Minimal (IPC Phase 1), Stressed (IPC Phase 2), Crisis (IPC

Phase 3), Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Catastrophe/Famine (IPC Phase 5).

**Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda.

Note to editors:

The 62nd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF62) was convened as a

hybrid event on 25th August 2022 by ICPAC (IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications

Centre) in collaboration with the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in the

region and other partners to issue the October - December 2022 seasonal forecast. The

forum brought together climate services providers and users from key socio-economic

sectors, governmental and non-governmental organizations, decision-makers, climate

scientists, and civil society stakeholders, among others, to discuss impacts and mitigation

measures for the upcoming season.

We encourage media and climate information users to consult our weekly and monthly

updates of the forecasted season: www.icpac.net

For downscaled information, please contact National Meteorological and Hydrological

Services.

ICPAC technical report for the OND season 2022

GHACOF 62 statement

For media interviews and requests, please contact:

Nicolas Bellet: +254 110428270 nicolas.bellet@igad.int

Emebet Jigssa: +254 748108077 emebet.jigssa@igad.int

Paula Machio: +254 746511941 paula.machio@igad.int

Tags: GHACOF62