Wetter and hotter than usual season expected in most of the region
High likelihood of heavy rainfall over western Kenya, south-western and eastern Uganda as well as western parts of Rwanda and South Sudan. Higher than usual temperature are also predicted across the region
Mombasa, 29 of January, 2020: The Fifty-Fourth Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF54) was convened from 27 to 29 January 2020 by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) in collaboration with Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) and other partners to issue the March, April May 2020 rainfall forecast for the region. The Forum brought together climate services providers and users from key socio-economic sectors, governmental and non-governmental organisations, decision-makers, climate scientists, and civil society stakeholders, among others, to discuss impacts and mitigation measures for the upcoming season.
March, April, May is an important rainfall season for Burundi, southern Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, and Uganda. The forecast indicates a high likelihood of a wetter than usual season in western Kenya, south-western and eastern Uganda as well as eastern Rwanda and western parts of South Sudan. It is likely that episodic rainfall events might lead to flash floods in these areas. Considering October, November and December rainfall season was one of the wettest on record, leading to major floods across the region, which affected infrastructure and livelihoods, stakeholders are advised to remain vigilant and implement the required mitigation measures. On the other hand, Drier than usual conditions are expected over central and north-eastern Ethiopia and southern Tanzania.
Regarding the beginning of the season, earlier than usual start of rains is expected across most of the region, especially over northern Tanzania, northern Uganda, western and north-eastern Kenya, south-western Ethiopia, and southern Somalia. A delayed of rainfall onset is indicated over central and north-eastern Ethiopia and northern Somalia. These areas are also likely to have prolonged dry periods a few weeks after the start of the season.
Higher than usual temperatures are expected over much of the region, in particular, eastern Tanzania, eastern Somalia, eastern Ethiopia, much of Eritrea as well as eastern and south-western Sudan.
Regional and national authorities are encouraged to use this seasonal forecast for planning and to update it with ten days and monthly forecasts provided by ICPAC and National Meteorological Services.
Resources:
Hashtag: #GHACOF54
Contact us: abubakr@icpac.net, +254 719 415 344
A Summary for Decision Makers with impacts and advisories for the following sectors will be released in the coming days:
- Agriculture and food security
- Livestock
- Water and Energy
- Conflict early warning
- Disaster risk management
- Health
