Wetter-Than-Normal Conditions Expected Across Much of the Greater Horn of Africa
Nairobi, Kenya, 27 January 2026: The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) in collaboration with member states’ National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), and partners, has released the regional climate outlook for the March to May (MAM) 2026 rainfall season, following the 72nd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 72) held in Nairobi, Kenya from 26–27 January 2026.
Key Highlights of the MAM 2026 Climate Outlook
Rainfall Outlook
- The outlook indicates a 45% probability of wetter-than-normal rainfall conditions over much of the Greater Horn of Africa, including most parts of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, central to western Kenya, Ethiopia, South Sudan, northern Somalia, and Djibouti.
- A 40% probability of near-normal rainfall is indicated over western and eastern South Sudan, north-eastern and south-western Kenya, most parts of Somalia, coastal Tanzania, and isolated areas of Uganda and Ethiopia.
- Drier-than-normal conditions are expected over coastal parts of Kenya.
- Normal to early onset of rains is expected over most parts of the region, while delayed onset is forecast over localised areas of Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Somalia.
- Despite the seasonal outlook, dry spells may still occur in areas forecasted to receive near-normal or above-normal rainfall, and wet spells may occur in areas forecasted to receive near-normal or below-normal rainfall.
Temperature Outlook
- Warmer-than-average temperatures are expected over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, with higher probabilities over Sudan, Djibouti, Tanzania, and parts of Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya.
- Cooler-than-average conditions are expected over parts of central to northern Ethiopia.
Advisory to Users
ICPAC urges member states and humanitarian and development partners to:
- Actively use the ICPAC regional seasonal outlook alongside the national and sub-national forecasts issued by National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs).
- Closely monitor updated seasonal forecasts, as well as sub-seasonal and short-range forecasts, to inform timely planning and decision-making.
- Scale up preparedness and anticipatory actions to minimise potential flood and drought impacts, protect lives and livelihoods, and safeguard critical infrastructure.
ICPAC will continue to provide regular regional updates, while NMHSs will issue detailed country-specific forecasts and advisories.
Dr Abdi Fidar, Director of ICPAC, stated: “GHACOF remains a critical regional platform for building consensus on climate risks and translating seasonal forecasts into early action that protects lives, livelihoods, and development across the Greater Horn of Africa.”
Mr Edward Muriuki, Director of the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) , emphasised the importance of early warning services, stating: “Early warning services are critical in mitigating climate risks, providing timely information that enables governments, communities, and institutions to prepare for and respond effectively to climate-related hazards.”
Mr Edward Muriuki, Director of the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD)nt for Environment and Climate Change in Kenya, underscored the importance of climate services, noting: “Climate services, when timely, credible, and user-driven, provide a powerful bridge between climate science and practical actions that protect lives, livelihoods, and support sustainable development.”
-End-
Note to Editors:
GHACOF 72 was convened as a hybrid event on the 26th and 27th of January, 2026. The Forum was attended by representatives from the 11 Member States of the Greater Horn of Africa region (Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda), alongside representatives from key sectors (agriculture and food security, livestock, water resources, health, disaster risk management, conflict, climate change and media), NGOs, humanitarian agencies, media, and development partners.
For media interviews and requests, please contact:
Paula Machio: +254 746 511 941 | paula.machio@igad.int
Emebet Jigssa: +254 748 108 077 | emebet.jigssa@igad.int
Edwin Kiplagat: +254 724 874 765 | edwin.kiplagat@igad.int