Wetter than usual season expected over most farming areas of central and southern East Africa
A wetter than usual season is expected over most farming areas in the central and southern parts of the region, while a drier than usual season is expected over north-eastern Ethiopia. The season is expected to start early in parts of Tanzania, Uganda, western Kenya, western South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, and southern Somalia.
Nairobi, 17 February 2021: March to May is an important season for Kenya, Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, Somalia, and parts of Ethiopia. A wetter than usual season is expected over western Kenya, eastern Uganda, western Ethiopia, eastern South Sudan, Tanzania, parts of Burundi and Rwanda, and limited areas of northern Somalia. While drier than usual conditions are expected over eastern Eritrea, north-eastern Ethiopia, limited areas of western South Sudan, and a few places over eastern Kenya.
The season is expected to start 1-2 weeks early in northern Tanzania, northern Uganda, western and eastern Kenya, most of South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, and southern Somalia. On the other hand, a late onset is expected over north-eastern Ethiopia, in line with the expected drier than usual conditions in this part of the region.
The season is also expected to be warmer than usual in north-eastern Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, Sudan, north-eastern and north-western South Sudan, Rwanda, and eastern and central Ethiopia. While the temperature is expected to be cooler than usual over most of Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi, and the cross-border region between Ethiopia and South Sudan.
Considering the ongoing simultaneous emergencies impacting the region, including the Desert Locust invasion and the COVID19 pandemic, regional and national authorities are encouraged to use this seasonal forecast to develop contingency plans, and to update them with weekly and monthly forecasts provided by ICPAC and National Meteorological Services.
Note to editors: The 57th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF57) was convened online on the 17 of February of 2021 by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) in collaboration with the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in the region and other partners to issue the March to May 2021 rainy season forecast for the region. The virtual forum brought together climate services providers and users from key socio-economic sectors, governmental and non-governmental organizations, decision-makers, climate scientists, and civil society stakeholders, among others, to discuss impacts and mitigation measures for the upcoming season.
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- Rainfall Forecast
- Temperature Forecast
- Onset Dates
- Onset Date Anomaly
- Dry/Wet Spells
- Probability of Exceedance
A Summary for Decision Makers with impacts and advisories for the following sectors will be released in the coming days:
- Agriculture and Food Security
- Water and Energy
- Conflict Early Warning
- Disaster Risk Management