This paper presents an analysis of future precipitation patterns over the Lake Victoria Basin, East Africa, using bias-corrected CMIP6 model projections.

A mean increase of about 5% in mean annual (ANN) and seasonal [March–May (MAM), June–August (JJA), and October–December (OND)] precipitation climatology is expected over the domain by mid-century (2040–2069).

The changes intensify towards the end of the century (2070–2099), with an increase in mean precipitation of about 16% (ANN), 10% (MAM), and 18% (OND) expected relative to the 1985–2014 baseline period.

Also, by the end of the century, the average daily precipitation intensity (SDII), the highest 5-day precipitation values (RX5Day), and the heavy precipitation effects, which are shown by the width of the right tail distribution of precipitation (99p–90p), will all be 16%, 29%, and 47% higher than they are now.

The projected changes have substantial implications for the region, which is already experiencing conflicts over water and water-related resources.