Extreme Rainfall Assessment using Global Climate Models over the Greater Horn of Africa

May 5, 2015
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The October to December (OND) is a major rainfall season over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) with strong El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO) signals and high rainfall variabil- ity leading to drought and floods. One of the major efforts to address these climate extreme challenges is the use of the Global Producing Centers (GPCs) models for seasonal forecast- ing. These extremes can be studied better by the use of individual models than ensemble for early warning and preparedness. This paper focuses on the evaluation of the eight individual models for seasonal rainfall forecasting over this region. The OND season is considered be- cause it is a major season which exhibits high rainfall variability in the region. Gridded ob- servation and model outputs from 1983 to 2001 were used and the methodologies employed include; regression analysis, correlation and error analysis techniques.

Tags: Climate Forecasting