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Projected climate over the Greater Horn of Africa under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

May 25, 2018

We analyze the potential effect of global warming levels (GWLs) of 1.5 ◦C and 2 ◦C above pre-industrial levels (1861−1890) on mean temperature and precipitation as well as intra-seasonal precipitation extremes over the Greater Horn of Africa. We used a large, 25-member regional climate model ensemble from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment and show that, compared to the control period of 1971−2000, annual mean near-surface temperature is projected to increase by more than 1 ◦C and 1.5 ◦C over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, under GWLs of 1.5 ◦C and 2 ◦C respectively. The highest temperature increases are projected in the northern region, covering most parts of Sudan and northern parts of Ethiopia, and the lowest temperature increases are projected over the coastal belt of Tanzania. However, the projected mean surface temperature difference between 2 ◦C and 1. 5 ◦C GWLs is higher than 0.5 ◦C over nearly all land points, reaching 0.8 ◦C over Sudan and northern Ethiopia. This implies that the Greater Horn of Africa will warm faster than the global mean.

Tags: Climate Forecasting , Climate Change