Statement from the 64th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF64)

May 24, 2023

June to September (JJAS) is an important rainy season, especially in the northern regions of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA), where it contributes to more than 50% of the annual rainfall. The forecast indicates increased chances for drier conditions (below average rainfall) over most parts of the region during JJAS 2023, specifically, Djibouti, Eritrea, central and northern Ethiopia, western Kenya, northern Uganda, much of South Sudan, and Sudan. Probabilities for drier conditions are particularly enhanced (> 50%) over central and north-eastern Ethiopia and parts of central and western South Sudan. On the other hand, coastal parts of Kenya, parts of southern and northern Somalia, isolated areas over the rangelands of eastern Ethiopia, southern Uganda, and Ethiopia-Sudan cross-border areas are likely to experience wetter than average (above-normal) conditions. In some regions, forecast probabilities for above-, near- and below-normal rainfall are equal at 33%, for example, over central and western Sudan and in transition zones separating regions where above normal is favored from regions where below normal is favoured.

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