Technical statement from the 65th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF65) 22 August 2023; Nairobi, Kenya

Aug. 22, 2023

October to December (OND) constitutes an important rainfall season, particularly in the equatorial parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA), where OND contributes 20-70% of the annual total rainfall. Analysis of global climate model predictions from 9 Global Producing Centres (GPCs) customised for the GHA indicates a heightened likelihood of experiencing more abundant rainfall (above normal rainfall) over almost all of the region from October to December 2023 (Figure 1). Notably, there is an exceptionally high forecast probability (>80%) of experiencing wetter than normal rainfall conditions in the eastern parts of the region, encompassing southern Ethiopia, eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia. On the other hand, for isolated areas of south-western Uganda and south-western South Sudan, probabilities favour drier than average (below-normal) conditions.