Summary for Decision Makers March to May 2020
Download our latest Summary for Decision Makers with impacts and advisories for the following sectors:
- Disaster risk management
- Agriculture and food security
- Water and Energy
- Conflict early warning
- Environment and Forestry
How should I use seasonal forecasts? Seasonal forecasts need to be used with caution for planning purposes because of the uncertainty inherent in seasonal forecasting. It is crucial to update and adjust plans with weekly and monthly forecasts as well as climate monitoring products issued by ICPAC and NMHSs.
March, April, May is an important rainfall season in East Africa. The forecast indicates a high likelihood of a wetter than usual season in western Kenya, south-western and eastern Uganda as well as eastern Rwanda and western parts of South Sudan. This increases the risk of flash floods in these areas. Considering October, November and December rainfall season was one of the wettest on record, leading to major floods across the region, which affected infrastructure and livelihoods, stakeholders are advised to remain vigilant and implement the required mitigation measures. On the other hand, drier than usual conditions are expected over central and north-eastern Ethiopia and southern Tanzania. An earlier than usual start of rains is expected across most of the region, especially over northern Tanzania, northern Uganda, western and northeastern Kenya, south-western Ethiopia, and southern Somalia. A delayed rainfall onset is expected over central and north-eastern Ethiopia and northern Somalia. These areas are also likely to have prolonged dry periods a few weeks after the start of the season. Higher than usual temperatures are expected over much of the region, in particular, eastern Tanzania, eastern Somalia, eastern Ethiopia, southwestern Kenya, western Rwanda, much of Eritrea and Burundi as well as eastern and south-western Sudan.