Summary for Decision Makers, March to May 2021
March to May is an important season for Kenya, Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, Somalia, and parts of Ethiopia. A wetter than usual season is expected over western Kenya, eastern Uganda, western Ethiopia, eastern South Sudan, Tanzania, parts of Burundi and Rwanda, and limited areas of northern Somalia. While drier than usual conditions are expected over eastern Eritrea, north-eastern Ethiopia, limited areas of western South Sudan, and a few places over eastern Kenya.
The season is expected to start 1-2 weeks early in northern Tanzania, northern Uganda, western and eastern Kenya, most of South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, and southern Somalia. On the other hand, a late onset is expected over north-eastern Ethiopia, in line with the expected drier than usual conditions in this part of the region.
The season is also expected to be warmer than usual in north-eastern Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, Sudan, north-eastern and north-western South Sudan, Rwanda, and eastern and central Ethiopia. While the temperature is expected to be cooler than usual over most of Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi, and the cross-border region between Ethiopia and South Sudan.
How should I use seasonal forecasts? Seasonal forecasts need to be used with caution for planning purposes because of the uncertainty inherent in seasonal forecasting. It is crucial to update and adjust plans with weekly and monthly forecasts as well as climate monitoring products issued by ICPAC and NMHSs.