Technical Statement from the 63rd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF63)

Feb. 22, 2023

March to May (MAM) constitutes an important rainfall season, particularly in the equatorial parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA), where MAM rainfall contributes up to 60% of the total annual rainfall. Analysis of global climate model predictions from 7 Global Producing Centres (GPCs) customized for the GHA indicates that drier-than-normal conditions are most likely to continue over the drought-affected regions of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia (Figure 1). Enhanced probability for below-normal rainfall is also expected over parts of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, and western South Sudan. On the other hand, wetter than normal conditions are expected over the cross-border areas of Ethiopia and South Sudan, north-western Kenya, and parts of central and southern Tanzania. In other parts of the region, including parts of central to western Kenya, north-eastern and southwestern Uganda, northern Burundi, central and northern Tanzania, and eastern South Sudan, there is no favoured rainfall category with predictions indicating equal chances of below, normal, and above normal rainfall.

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