March to May (MAM) constitutes an important rainfall season, particularly in the equatorial parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA), where MAM rainfall contributes up to 60% of the total annual rainfall. The performance of the MAM season is therefore critical for rain-fed socio-economic sectors in the region, including agriculture, livestock production, water resources, and other livelihoods. Analysis of global climate model predictions from nine Global Producing Centres (GPCs) customised for the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region indicates slightly raised probabilities (40%) for near normal conditions over much of Somalia, northern and eastern Kenya, coastal and parts of northern Tanzania, eastern and western South Sudan, a few regions in western Ethiopia and parts of Uganda. However, in these regions, the probabilities for below-normal and above-normal are not markedly lower, with both equal at 30% and therefore these outcomes should be considered in contingency planning.  In contrast, the forecast indicates enhanced probabilities for above-normal rainfall over Burundi, Rwanda, most of Tanzania, western Kenya, much of Uganda, South Sudan, and Ethiopia. Forecast probabilities favour drier-than-usual conditions, specifically for parts of the coastal areas of Kenya.

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