Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
April - June 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, northern and western Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, southern Somalia, Uganda, northern and eastern Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania.
- Normal to cooler than normal conditions are expected over part of south-eastern Sudan, central to southern South Sudan, most parts of Ethiopia, part of central to eastern Uganda, central to western Kenya, and most parts of Somalia.
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over most parts of the region including Ethiopia, Djibouti, northern Eritrea, Kenya, central to southern Somalia, central to southern South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania.
- Drier than normal conditions expected over northern parts of Somalia, isolated areas in central-eastern and north-eastern Ethiopia, and southern Eritrea.
Seasonal forecasts
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Temperature forecast
- Warmer than average temperatures are expected over most parts of the region.
- Higher probabilities of above-average temperatures are indicated over northern Sudan, southern and coastal parts of the region.
- Normal temperatures are expected over …
Probability Onset
- Normal onset forecast over most parts of the region
- Delayed onset indicated in localized areas of north-eastern and western parts of the region
Onset anomalies
- Near normal onset expected over most parts of the region with late onset expected over north-eastern Ethiopia and few places over South Sudan.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over most parts of the region, specifically over Kenya, Somalia, southern Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, and north-western Tanzania.
- Highest probabilities of wetter than usual conditions indicated in …
Probability Onset
- Normal onset forecast over most parts of the region.
- Delayed onset indicated in localized areas of southern and northern Ethiopia and Kenya.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than average temperatures are expected all over the region.
- Highest probabilities are indicated over Sudan, northern South Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia and southern areas of Tanzania.
Onset anomalies
- Normal onset forecast over most parts of the region.
- Late onset indicated in localized areas of southern and northern Ethiopia and western Kenya.
Probability of 400 mm
- High chances of rainfall exceeding 400 mm over south-western Ethiopia, the Lake Victoria Basin, and western Rwanda and Burundi.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the southern parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over localized areas over the north western parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than average temperatures predicted over the whole region.
- Highest probabilities over northern Sudan, parts of Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, and Tanzania.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected all over the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over parts of northern and southern coastal areas of the country.
- Average conditions expected over north-western areas of the country.
- Central and areas in southern parts of the country are …