Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
October - December 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Southern Ethiopia, Somalia and cross border areas of Kenya, Uganda, and South Sudan are expected to experience maximum dry days of 8 to 10 days.
- Long wet spells expected over parts of Rwanda, Burundi, and Lake Victoria Regions in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.
- Onset expected to start in September and progress southwards following the southward progression of the rain band
- A delayed onset is expected in the western parts of the region, while early onset is expected in the eastern and southern parts
- Higest probability of seasonal rainfall exceeding 400 mm indicated over southern Somalia, southern Kenya, south-eastern Uganda, Burundi and north-western Tanzania
- Above normal temperatures are expected across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, with particularly high probabilities in Somalia, Ethiopia and coastal regions.
- Increased likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions are predicted over most parts of the region with the highest probabilities over north-eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia and south eastern Ethiopia
- The rest of the region indicates dominant probabilities of 55-85% of Above –normal rainfall
Seasonal forecasts
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Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over most parts of Ethiopia, parts of northern and central and southern Somalia, northern Eritrea, South Sudan, central to southern Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
- Normal to drier than …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions are expected throughout the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over most parts of the region.
- Normal to cooler than normal temperature conditions likely to be recorded over few areas in Ethiopia, Kenya and Tanzania.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over most parts of the region.
- Normal temperatures are expected over areas in south-eastern South Sudan and north-eastern Uganda.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than average conditions are expected over the whole region
- Probabilities for warmer than average temperatures are most enhanced over Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, northern Somalia, northern Kenya and southern to eastern Tanzania
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Normal to cooler than normal conditions expected over south-eastern parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over most parts of the region.
- Normal to cooler than normal temperatures are expected over the cross-border areas of South Sudan-Uganda-Kenya.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier-than-Normal Conditions likely over Somalia, eastern to northern Kenya, mos parts of Ethiopia, Djibouti, coastal Eritrea, western South Sudan, western Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and northwestern Tanzania
- Wetter-than-Normal Conditions expected over most parts of Tanzania, …
Probability of 300 mm
- High chances that seasonal rainfall will exceed 300 mm in most parts of Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, south-western South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, and central to western Kenya
Length of wet spells
- The longest wet spells of between 6 and 10 days are expected over southern Ethiopia, Rwanda, Burundi, south-eastern and western Uganda, and south-western Ethiopia
- Shortest wet spells of between 1 and 4 days are expected …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions are expected over a small area in south-western South Sudan.