Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
August - October 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Warmer than usual temperatures are expected over most parts of the region.
- Wetter-than-normal conditions expected over the eastern Horn, including Somalia, south-eastern and part of western Ethiopia, eastern to coastal Kenya and over few places in South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Rwanda and northern Burundi.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over much of South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda, Ethiopia, western Kenya, northern Tanzania, and Rwanda.
Seasonal forecasts
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Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Normal to cooler than normal conditions expected over central to south-eastern parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over most parts of the region.
- Normal to cooler than normal temperatures likely to be recorded over cross border areas of Kenya-Uganda-South Sudan and Ethiopia-Sudan-Eritrea.
Onset dates
- A south to north-eastern progression of onset starting in February to early May is expected
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than average conditions are expected over the whole region
- Probabilities for warmer than average temperatures are most enhanced over Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, northern Somalia, northern Kenya and southern to eastern Tanzania
Probability of 300 mm
- High chances that seasonal rainfall will exceed 300 mm in most parts of Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, south-western South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, and central to western Kenya
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Drier than usual conditions are expected over central to western parts of the country.
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the eastern parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Drier than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Normal to above normal conditions expected over areas in the northern regions of the country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions are expected over a small area in western South Sudan.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Drier than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over southern parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions are expected over a small area in south-western South Sudan.
Onset anomalies
- Near normal onset expected over most parts of the region with late onset expected over north-eastern Ethiopia and few places over South Sudan.
Probability of 400 mm
- High chances of exceeding 400 mm over parts of western Kenya, nrthern Uganda, central to western Ethiopia, South Sudan, and southern Sudan.
Probability Onset
- Normal onset forecast over most parts of the region
- Delayed onset indicated in localized areas of north-eastern and western parts of the region
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than average temperatures are expected over most parts of the region.
- Higher probabilities of above-average temperatures are indicated over northern Sudan, southern and coastal parts of the region.
- Normal temperatures are expected over …