Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
April - June 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over most parts of the region.
- Normal to cooler than normal temperatures are expected over the cross-border areas of South Sudan-Uganda-Kenya.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over south-eastern Ethiopia, central to southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, and isolated areas in western Uganda and South Sudan.
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over western Kenya, eastern Uganda, much of South Sudan, southern Sudan, parts of central to south-western Ethiopia, Rwanda, parts of Burundi and Tanzania.
Seasonal forecasts
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Length of dry spells
- The longest first dry spell after the onset is expected over Tanzania, eastern Kenya, and northern Somalia.
- The rest of the region is expected to record the first dry spell of between 2 and 8 …
Onset anomalies
- Early-onset is expected over central to north-eastern Somalia and Djibouti.
- Late-onset is expected over isolated areas in western Kenya, Uganda, and north-eastern Ethiopia.
- The rest of the region is expected to record normal onset.
Length of wet spells
- Maximum wet spells of about 10 days are expected over western Kenya while the rest of the region is likely to record wet spells of between 4 and 8 days.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions are expected over areas in the south and northern parts of the country.
- Usual conditions are expected over most parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures are expected over Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti, northern Sudan, and a few areas in southern Tanzania.
- Usual temperatures are likely over much of Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, much of South Sudan, southern …
Probability of 300 mm
- The highest chances of rainfall exceeding 300 mm are expected over southern and north-western Tanzania, Burundi, Uganda, western Kenya, and south-western Ethiopia.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions are expected over Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, eastern South Sudan, Kenya, and a few places in Ethiopia and Somalia.
- Usual conditions are expected over much of central to southern Somalia, south-eastern …
Onset dates
- Bi-Modal (areas that experience two seasons within the year) areas of Tanzania, Rwanda, and Burundi are expected to record onset from the second dekad of February.
- Uganda and Kenya are expected to record onset …
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions are expected over the eastern parts of the country.
- Usual conditions are expected over central and western parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions are expected over a few areas …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the eastern and northern parts of the region
- Cooler than usual conditions expected over the western parts of the region
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over Uganda, western Kenya, South Sudan, Sudan, much of Ethiopia, Djibouti and Eritrea
Probability of 400 mm
- Highest probabilities of rainfall exceeding 400mm in western Ethiopia, South Sudan, northern Uganda, southern areas of Sudan.
