Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
June - September
Rainfall
Temperature
- Longest dry-spell lengths after onset expected over western Kenya, eastern Uganda, southern Ethiopia, northern Sudan.
- Much of the region is likely to experience first dry-spell length ranging from 4 to 8 days
- Longer wet-spell lengths after seasonal onset are expected over parts of northwestern Ethiopia, while shorter wet-spell lengths are anticipated over northeastern Ethiopia and Sudan
- The onset of rainfall shows a progression from south to north following the movement of the ITCZ.
- Enhanced probabilities of a late onset are indicated across much of the region. However, parts of southwestern, north-central Ethiopia, and parts of Sudan show likelihood of an early to near-normal onset
- Significantly higher likelihood for above-normal temperatures are indicated across the vast majority of the Greater Horn of Africa region.
- The highest probabilities of above-normal temperatures are concentrated over northern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan and Ethiopia
- Wettern than normal conditions indicated over parts of coastal Somalia and Kenya, northern Sudan, southern Ethiopia, and northern Somalia while near-normal conditions are expected over most of central Sudan.
- Enhanced likelihood Below-normal rainfall across much of the northern GHA, including South Sudan, Ethiopia, parts of Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Uganda, and western Kenya.
Seasonal forecasts
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Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over most parts of the region.
- Normal to cooler than normal temperatures are expected over the cross-border areas of South Sudan-Uganda-Kenya.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Normal to cooler than normal conditions expected over south-eastern parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions expected over south-eastern Ethiopia, central to southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, and isolated areas in western Uganda and South Sudan.
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over western Kenya, eastern Uganda, much of …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than average temperatures are expected over most parts of the region.
- Higher probabilities of above-average temperatures are indicated over northern Sudan, southern and coastal parts of the region.
- Normal temperatures are expected over …
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over much of the northern GHA covering much of Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Ethiopia, south Sudan, Uganda, western Kenya, costal parts of Kenya and Somalia.
- Drier than normal conditions expected over …
Probability Onset
- Normal onset forecast over most parts of the region
- Delayed onset indicated in localized areas of north-eastern and western parts of the region
Probability of 400 mm
- High chances of exceeding 400 mm over parts of western Kenya, nrthern Uganda, central to western Ethiopia, South Sudan, and southern Sudan.
Onset anomalies
- Near normal onset expected over most parts of the region with late onset expected over north-eastern Ethiopia and few places over South Sudan.
Onset dates
- The onset of rainfall forecast shows a progression from south to north from May over the equatorial sector to August over the far north.
Onset anomalies
- Normal onset forecast over most parts of the region.
- Late onset indicated in localized areas of southern and northern Ethiopia and western Kenya.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the southern parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over localized areas over the north western parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over most parts of the region, specifically over Kenya, Somalia, southern Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, and north-western Tanzania.
- Highest probabilities of wetter than usual conditions indicated in …
Probability Onset
- Normal onset forecast over most parts of the region.
- Delayed onset indicated in localized areas of southern and northern Ethiopia and Kenya.
Probability of 400 mm
- High chances of rainfall exceeding 400 mm over south-western Ethiopia, the Lake Victoria Basin, and western Rwanda and Burundi.