Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
March - May 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over most parts of the region.
- Normal to cooler than normal temperature conditions likely to be recorded over few areas in Ethiopia, Kenya and Tanzania.
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over most parts of Ethiopia, parts of northern and central and southern Somalia, northern Eritrea, South Sudan, central to southern Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
- Normal to drier than normal conditions are expected over western and northern Kenya, western and eastern Uganda, south-western to central and north-eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, western South Sudan and most parts of Somalia.
Seasonal forecasts
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Probability Onset
- Normal onset forecast over most parts of the region
- Delayed onset indicated in localized areas of north-eastern and western parts of the region
Probability of 400 mm
- High chances of exceeding 400 mm over parts of western Kenya, nrthern Uganda, central to western Ethiopia, South Sudan, and southern Sudan.
Onset dates
- The onset of rainfall forecast shows a progression from south to north from May over the equatorial sector to August over the far north.
Probability of 400 mm
- High chances of rainfall exceeding 400 mm over south-western Ethiopia, the Lake Victoria Basin, and western Rwanda and Burundi.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than average temperatures are expected all over the region.
- Highest probabilities are indicated over Sudan, northern South Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia and southern areas of Tanzania.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over most parts of the region, specifically over Kenya, Somalia, southern Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, and north-western Tanzania.
- Highest probabilities of wetter than usual conditions indicated in …
Onset anomalies
- Normal onset forecast over most parts of the region.
- Late onset indicated in localized areas of southern and northern Ethiopia and western Kenya.
Probability Onset
- Normal onset forecast over most parts of the region.
- Delayed onset indicated in localized areas of southern and northern Ethiopia and Kenya.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the southern parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over localized areas over the north western parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected all over the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over northern and southern coastal parts of Somalia, south-eastern Ethiopia, cross-border areas of Ethiopia-Sudan-South Sudan, and coastal Kenya.
- Drier than normal conditions expected over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected all over the country.