Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
March - May 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over most parts of the region.
- Normal to cooler than normal temperature conditions likely to be recorded over few areas in Ethiopia, Kenya and Tanzania.
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over most parts of Ethiopia, parts of northern and central and southern Somalia, northern Eritrea, South Sudan, central to southern Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
- Normal to drier than normal conditions are expected over western and northern Kenya, western and eastern Uganda, south-western to central and north-eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, western South Sudan and most parts of Somalia.
Seasonal forecasts
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Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions are expected over areas in the south and northern parts of the country.
- Usual conditions are expected over most parts of the country.
Onset anomalies
- Early-onset is expected over central to north-eastern Somalia and Djibouti.
- Late-onset is expected over isolated areas in western Kenya, Uganda, and north-eastern Ethiopia.
- The rest of the region is expected to record normal onset.
Length of dry spells
- The longest first dry spell after the onset is expected over Tanzania, eastern Kenya, and northern Somalia.
- The rest of the region is expected to record the first dry spell of between 2 and 8 …
Length of wet spells
- Maximum wet spells of about 10 days are expected over western Kenya while the rest of the region is likely to record wet spells of between 4 and 8 days.
Probability of 300 mm
- The highest chances of rainfall exceeding 300 mm are expected over southern and north-western Tanzania, Burundi, Uganda, western Kenya, and south-western Ethiopia.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions are expected over Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, eastern South Sudan, Kenya, and a few places in Ethiopia and Somalia.
- Usual conditions are expected over much of central to southern Somalia, south-eastern …
Onset dates
- Bi-Modal (areas that experience two seasons within the year) areas of Tanzania, Rwanda, and Burundi are expected to record onset from the second dekad of February.
- Uganda and Kenya are expected to record onset …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over north-western, north-eastern, and southern parts of the country.
- Usual conditions are expected over the northern and central parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over the central parts of the country.
- Usual conditions are expected over the south and northern parts of the country.
- Cooler than usual conditions are expected over a few …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures are expected over Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti, northern Sudan, and a few areas in southern Tanzania.
- Usual temperatures are likely over much of Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, much of South Sudan, southern …
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions are expected over the eastern parts of the country.
- Usual conditions are expected over central and western parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions are expected over a few areas …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the eastern and northern parts of the region
- Cooler than usual conditions expected over the western parts of the region
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over Uganda, western Kenya, South Sudan, Sudan, much of Ethiopia, Djibouti and Eritrea
