Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
October - December 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Southern Ethiopia, Somalia and cross border areas of Kenya, Uganda, and South Sudan are expected to experience maximum dry days of 8 to 10 days.
- Long wet spells expected over parts of Rwanda, Burundi, and Lake Victoria Regions in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.
- Onset expected to start in September and progress southwards following the southward progression of the rain band
- A delayed onset is expected in the western parts of the region, while early onset is expected in the eastern and southern parts
- Higest probability of seasonal rainfall exceeding 400 mm indicated over southern Somalia, southern Kenya, south-eastern Uganda, Burundi and north-western Tanzania
- Above normal temperatures are expected across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, with particularly high probabilities in Somalia, Ethiopia and coastal regions.
- Increased likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions are predicted over most parts of the region with the highest probabilities over north-eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia and south eastern Ethiopia
- The rest of the region indicates dominant probabilities of 55-85% of Above –normal rainfall
Seasonal forecasts
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Onset anomalies
- Near normal onset expected over most parts of the region with late onset expected over north-eastern Ethiopia and few places over South Sudan.
Onset dates
- The onset of rainfall forecast shows a progression from south to north from May over the equatorial sector to August over the far north.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over much of the northern GHA covering much of Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Ethiopia, south Sudan, Uganda, western Kenya, costal parts of Kenya and Somalia.
- Drier than normal conditions expected over …
Probability Onset
- Normal onset forecast over most parts of the region
- Delayed onset indicated in localized areas of north-eastern and western parts of the region
Probability of 400 mm
- High chances of exceeding 400 mm over parts of western Kenya, nrthern Uganda, central to western Ethiopia, South Sudan, and southern Sudan.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than average temperatures are expected over most parts of the region.
- Higher probabilities of above-average temperatures are indicated over northern Sudan, southern and coastal parts of the region.
- Normal temperatures are expected over …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than average temperatures are expected all over the region.
- Highest probabilities are indicated over Sudan, northern South Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia and southern areas of Tanzania.
Probability of 400 mm
- High chances of rainfall exceeding 400 mm over south-western Ethiopia, the Lake Victoria Basin, and western Rwanda and Burundi.
Probability Onset
- Normal onset forecast over most parts of the region.
- Delayed onset indicated in localized areas of southern and northern Ethiopia and Kenya.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the southern parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over localized areas over the north western parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over most parts of the region, specifically over Kenya, Somalia, southern Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, and north-western Tanzania.
- Highest probabilities of wetter than usual conditions indicated in …
Onset anomalies
- Normal onset forecast over most parts of the region.
- Late onset indicated in localized areas of southern and northern Ethiopia and western Kenya.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.