Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
June - September
Rainfall
Temperature
- Longest dry-spell lengths after onset expected over western Kenya, eastern Uganda, southern Ethiopia, northern Sudan.
- Much of the region is likely to experience first dry-spell length ranging from 4 to 8 days
- Longer wet-spell lengths after seasonal onset are expected over parts of northwestern Ethiopia, while shorter wet-spell lengths are anticipated over northeastern Ethiopia and Sudan
- The onset of rainfall shows a progression from south to north following the movement of the ITCZ.
- Enhanced probabilities of a late onset are indicated across much of the region. However, parts of southwestern, north-central Ethiopia, and parts of Sudan show likelihood of an early to near-normal onset
- Significantly higher likelihood for above-normal temperatures are indicated across the vast majority of the Greater Horn of Africa region.
- The highest probabilities of above-normal temperatures are concentrated over northern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan and Ethiopia
- Wettern than normal conditions indicated over parts of coastal Somalia and Kenya, northern Sudan, southern Ethiopia, and northern Somalia while near-normal conditions are expected over most of central Sudan.
- Enhanced likelihood Below-normal rainfall across much of the northern GHA, including South Sudan, Ethiopia, parts of Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Uganda, and western Kenya.
Seasonal forecasts
Filter by Product Type
Filter by Region
Filter by Season
Filter by Year
Showing 455 results
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over most parts of northern Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).
- Drier than normal conditions expected over coastal Kenya, southern coast of Somalia, and localized areas in south-eastern Ethiopia.
Length of wet spells
- Longest wet spells expected over western to central Ethiopia.
Onset anomalies
- Early onset expected in eastern South Sudan and parts of Ethiopia.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal temperatures expected over eastern parts of the region and northern areas of Sudan.
- Near normal temperatures expected in the western and south-western parts of Tanzania, Burundi, eastern Rwanda, central Ethiopia, and part …
Probability of 300 mm
- Higher chances of rainfall exceeding 300 mm over central to western Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda, and southern Sudan.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions are expected over Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, eastern South Sudan, Kenya, and a few places in Ethiopia and Somalia.
- Usual conditions are expected over much of central to southern Somalia, south-eastern …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures are expected over Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti, northern Sudan, and a few areas in southern Tanzania.
- Usual temperatures are likely over much of Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, much of South Sudan, southern …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over the central parts of the country.
- Usual conditions are expected over the south and northern parts of the country.
- Cooler than usual conditions are expected over a few …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over north-western, north-eastern, and southern parts of the country.
- Usual conditions are expected over the northern and central parts of the country.
Onset anomalies
- Early-onset is expected over central to north-eastern Somalia and Djibouti.
- Late-onset is expected over isolated areas in western Kenya, Uganda, and north-eastern Ethiopia.
- The rest of the region is expected to record normal onset.
Onset dates
- Bi-Modal (areas that experience two seasons within the year) areas of Tanzania, Rwanda, and Burundi are expected to record onset from the second dekad of February.
- Uganda and Kenya are expected to record onset …
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions are expected over areas in the south and northern parts of the country.
- Usual conditions are expected over most parts of the country.
Length of wet spells
- Maximum wet spells of about 10 days are expected over western Kenya while the rest of the region is likely to record wet spells of between 4 and 8 days.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions are expected over the eastern parts of the country.
- Usual conditions are expected over central and western parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions are expected over a few areas …