Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
December 2025 - February 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Warmer than normal conditions are expected over most parts of the region.
- Normal to cooler than normal temperature conditions likely to be recorded over parts of central Kenya and Ethiopia, northern Eritrea and coastal areas of Sudan.
- Normal to wetter than normal conditions expected over parts of Burundi, and western to southern areas of Tanzania.
- Drier than normal conditions expected over central to southern Kenya, southern Uganda, eastern and western Rwanda, most parts of Burundi, central to northern, and southern Tanzania.
Seasonal forecasts
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Length of wet spells
- Maximum wet spells of about 10 days are expected over western Kenya while the rest of the region is likely to record wet spells of between 4 and 8 days.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over the central parts of the country.
- Usual conditions are expected over the south and northern parts of the country.
- Cooler than usual conditions are expected over a few …
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions are expected over the eastern parts of the country.
- Usual conditions are expected over central and western parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions are expected over a few areas …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over north-western, north-eastern, and southern parts of the country.
- Usual conditions are expected over the northern and central parts of the country.
Length of dry spells
- The longest first dry spell after the onset is expected over Tanzania, eastern Kenya, and northern Somalia.
- The rest of the region is expected to record the first dry spell of between 2 and 8 …
Onset anomalies
- Early-onset is expected over central to north-eastern Somalia and Djibouti.
- Late-onset is expected over isolated areas in western Kenya, Uganda, and north-eastern Ethiopia.
- The rest of the region is expected to record normal onset.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions are expected over Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, eastern South Sudan, Kenya, and a few places in Ethiopia and Somalia.
- Usual conditions are expected over much of central to southern Somalia, south-eastern …
Probability of 400 mm
- Highest probabilities of rainfall exceeding 400mm in western Ethiopia, South Sudan, northern Uganda, southern areas of Sudan.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over Uganda, western Kenya, South Sudan, Sudan, much of Ethiopia, Djibouti and Eritrea
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the eastern and northern parts of the region
- Cooler than usual conditions expected over the western parts of the region
Temperature forecast
The season is expected to be warmer than usual in north-eastern Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, Sudan, north-eastern and north-western South Sudan, Rwanda, and eastern and central Ethiopia.
While the temperature is expected to be cooler than …