Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
May - July 2024
Rainfall
Temperature
- Warmer than usual temperatures indicated over the whole region.
- The highest probabilities are indicated over parts of Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, eastern Kenya and coastal Tanzania.
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the northern sectors of the region, specifically in much of Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, Uganda, and western and coastal Kenya.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over isolated areas of southern Somalia, western Ethiopia, western Sudan and central Uganda.
Seasonal forecasts
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Onset dates
- Western equatorial parts of the region to continue receiving rainfall through September.
- Onset expected in the north-eastern parts of the region in October, and move southwards reaching Tanzania in November.
Onset dates
Rains are expected to start late (compared to the 1981-2010 average onset) over Tanzania, Burundi, eastern Kenya, southern and central Somalia, and south-eastern Ethiopia. On the other hand, rains are expected to start earlier than …
Onset dates
- Onset expected from second week of March over western and south-western Kenya and progress northwards.
Onset dates
- Bi-Modal (areas that experience two seasons within the year) areas of Tanzania, Rwanda, and Burundi are expected to record onset from the second dekad of February.
- Uganda and Kenya are expected to record onset …
Onset dates
- The season is expected to start 1-2 weeks early in northern Tanzania, northern Uganda, western and eastern Kenya, most of South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, and southern Somalia.
- On the other hand, a late onset is …
Onset dates
Regarding the beginning of the season, earlier than usual start of rains is expected across most of the region, especially over northern Tanzania, northern Uganda, western and north-eastern Kenya, south-western Ethiopia, and southern Somalia. A …