Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
September - November 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Above normal temperatures are expected over the region with the highest probabilities indicated over northern and central areas of the regions.
- Above normal rainfall is expected over most parts of the region including parts of Ethiopia, South Sudan, Somalia, Djibouti, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and northern Tanzania.
- Below normal rainfall is expected over parts of central to north-eastern South Sudan, central and western Ethiopia, as well as central to southern Sudan.
Seasonal forecasts
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Onset dates
- Areas in western parts expected to record onset in September with eastern and southern areas expected to record onset from October and early November respectively.
Onset dates
- Western equatorial parts of the region to continue receiving rainfall through September.
- Onset expected in the north-eastern parts of the region in October, and move southwards reaching Tanzania in November.
Onset dates
Rains are expected to start late (compared to the 1981-2010 average onset) over Tanzania, Burundi, eastern Kenya, southern and central Somalia, and south-eastern Ethiopia. On the other hand, rains are expected to start earlier than …
Onset dates
- The onset of rainfall shows a progression from south to north following the movement of the ITCZ.
Onset dates
- A south to north-eastern progression of onset starting in February to early May is expected
Onset dates
- The onset of rainfall forecast shows a progression from south to north from May over the equatorial sector to August over the far north.
Onset dates
- Onset expected from second week of March over western and south-western Kenya and progress northwards.
Onset dates
- Bi-Modal (areas that experience two seasons within the year) areas of Tanzania, Rwanda, and Burundi are expected to record onset from the second dekad of February.
- Uganda and Kenya are expected to record onset …
Onset dates
- The season is expected to start 1-2 weeks early in northern Tanzania, northern Uganda, western and eastern Kenya, most of South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, and southern Somalia.
- On the other hand, a late onset is …
Onset dates
Regarding the beginning of the season, earlier than usual start of rains is expected across most of the region, especially over northern Tanzania, northern Uganda, western and north-eastern Kenya, south-western Ethiopia, and southern Somalia. A …