June to September 2022



Length of wet spells
  • Longest wet spells expected over western to central Ethiopia.
Onset anomalies
  • Early onset expected in eastern South Sudan and parts of Ethiopia.
Probability of 300 mm
  • Higher chances of rainfall exceeding 300 mm over central to western Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda, and southern Sudan.
Temperature forecast
  • Warmer than normal temperatures expected over eastern parts of the region and northern areas of Sudan.
  • Near normal temperatures expected in the western and south-western parts of Tanzania, Burundi, eastern Rwanda, central Ethiopia, and part of north-eastern Somalia.
  • Cooler than normal temperatures expected over much of Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, western and northern Ethiopia, northern Somalia, South Sudan, Uganda, and western Kenya.
Rainfall forecast
  • Wetter than normal conditions expected over most parts of northern Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).
  • Drier than normal conditions expected over coastal Kenya, southern coast of Somalia, and localized areas in south-eastern Ethiopia.