March-May 2023



Onset dates
  • Onset expected from second week of March over western and south-western Kenya and progress northwards.
Probability Onset

  • Rain excpected to start on time over most parts of the region while a delay is excpected over north-eastern Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, and central Somalia.
Probability of 300 mm
  • High chances of exceeding 300 mm rainfallover central to western Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, south western South Sudan, and south-western Ethiopia.
Probability of 400 mm
  • High chances of exceeding 400 mm rainfall over the Lake Victoria Basin and south-western Ethiopia.
  • Low chances of exceeding 40 mm rainfall over the rest of the region.
Temperature forecast
  • Warmer than average temperatures are expected all over the region with highest probabilities indicated over Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, and southern areas of Tanzania.
Rainfall forecast
  • Drier than usual rainfall is indicated over eastern (Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, eastern Kenya) and western (western South Sudan, Uganda, and Rwanda) parts of the region.
  • Wetter than usual rainfall are indicated over cross-border areas of South Sudan, Ethiopia, north-western Kenya, and few places in Tanzania.