Probability of 300 mm
Probability of 400 mm
- Onset expected from second week of March over western and south-western Kenya and progress northwards.
- Rain excpected to start on time over most parts of the region while a delay is excpected over north-eastern Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, and central Somalia.
- High chances of exceeding 300 mm rainfallover central to western Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, south western South Sudan, and south-western Ethiopia.
- High chances of exceeding 400 mm rainfall over the Lake Victoria Basin and south-western Ethiopia.
- Low chances of exceeding 40 mm rainfall over the rest of the region.
- Warmer than average temperatures are expected all over the region with highest probabilities indicated over Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, and southern areas of Tanzania.
- Drier than usual rainfall is indicated over eastern (Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, eastern Kenya) and western (western South Sudan, Uganda, and Rwanda) parts of the region.
- Wetter than usual rainfall are indicated over cross-border areas of South Sudan, Ethiopia, north-western Kenya, and few places in Tanzania.