March to May 2021

Rainfall

Temperature

Rainfall forecast
Wetter than usual season expected over most farming areas of central and southern East Africa

Headline: A wetter than usual season is expected over most farming areas in the central and southern parts of the region. While a drier than usual season is expected over north-eastern Ethiopia. The season is expected to start early in parts of Tanzania, Uganda, western Kenya, western South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, and southern Somalia. 

March to May is an important season for Kenya, Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, Somalia, and parts of Ethiopia. A wetter than usual season is expected over western Kenya, eastern Uganda, western Ethiopia, eastern South Sudan, Tanzania, parts of Burundi and Rwanda, and limited areas of northern Somalia. While drier than usual conditions are expected over eastern Eritrea, north-eastern Ethiopia, limited areas of western South Sudan, and a few places over eastern Kenya.  

The season is expected to start 1-2 weeks early in northern Tanzania, northern Uganda, western and eastern Kenya, most of South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, and southern Somalia. On the other hand, a late onset is expected over north-eastern Ethiopia, in line with the expected drier than usual conditions in this part of the region.   

The season is also expected to be warmer than usual in north-eastern Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, Sudan, north-eastern and north-western South Sudan, Rwanda, and eastern and central Ethiopia. While the temperature is expected to be cooler than usual over most of Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi, and the cross-border region between Ethiopia and South Sudan.

Considering the ongoing simultaneous emergencies impacting the region, including the Desert Locust invasion and the COVID19 pandemic, regional and national authorities are encouraged to use this seasonal forecast to develop contingency plans, and to update them with weekly and monthly forecasts provided by ICPAC and National Meteorological Services. 

Press Release

http://bit.ly/2NyTjHE

Probability of 300 mm
Suitability forecast for crops requiring more than 300mm of rainfall
  • High probabilities (> 50%) of receiving more than 300 mm of rainfall during March-May 2021 over much of Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, western Kenya, Uganda, south-western South Sudan, and south-western Ethiopia.

Length of wet spells
  • Long continuous wet days (10 - 15 days) in South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, and parts of Tanzania.
  • Short wet spells over eastern Kenya, north-eastern Ethiopia, and parts of north-eastern Somalia.

Onset anomalies
A late onset is expected over north-eastern Ethiopia
  • The season is expected to start 1-2 weeks early in northern Tanzania, northern Uganda, western and eastern Kenya, most of South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, and southern Somalia.
  • A late onset is expected over north-eastern Ethiopia, in line with the expected drier than usual conditions in this part of the region.   
Onset dates
A late onset is expected over north-eastern Ethiopia
  • The season is expected to start 1-2 weeks early in northern Tanzania, northern Uganda, western and eastern Kenya, most of South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, and southern Somalia.
  • On the other hand, a late onset is expected over north-eastern Ethiopia, in line with the expected drier than usual conditions in this part of the region.   
Temperature forecast

The season is expected to be warmer than usual in north-eastern Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, Sudan, north-eastern and north-western South Sudan, Rwanda, and eastern and central Ethiopia.

While the temperature is expected to be cooler than usual over most of Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi, and the cross-border region between Ethiopia and South Sudan.