October - December 2024
Rainfall
Temperature
- Longest dry spell expected over parts of Ethiopia and Somalia.
- Longest wetspell expected over the western areas of the region.
- Areas in western parts expected to record onset in September with eastern and southern areas expected to record onset from October and early November respectively.
- A delayed onset is expected in the east, including southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, and eastern Tanzania.
- Over 80 % chance of exceeding 300mm threshold over western parts of the region.
- A delayed onset is expected in the east, including southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, and eastern Tanzania.
- Normal to early onset is forecasted for the western region, especially in northern Uganda, western Kenya, Burundi, Rwanda, and western Tanzania.
- Warmer-than-average temperatures are expected across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, with particularly high probabilities in eastern regions such as eastern Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti, and coastal Eritrea and Sudan.
- Average to cooler-than-average conditions are expected in cross-border areas of Uganda, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, and parts of northern Tanzania and western Sudan.
- Increased likelihood of drier conditions in the eastern Horn of Africa.
- Wetter-than-normal conditions are predicted for western parts of the region.
- Equal probabilities in south-western Ethiopia and South Sudan, central and southern Kenya, central and southern Uganda, eastern Rwanda, and eastern and north-western Tanzania.
