IGAD Climate Predictions and Applications Centre - ICPAC

Terms of Reference for

Enhancing Displacement Models in the IGAD Region: A Review of Existing Initiatives and Future Development Recommendations"

Assignment: Consultancy contract

Duration: 2.5 Months (20 person-days)

Expected start Date: June, 2023

1. Introduction and Context

The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) is one of the Regional Economic Communities (RECs) of the African Union Commission. IGAD was initially established in 1986 as the Intergovernmental Authority on Drought and Development (IGADD) to coordinate the member states' efforts in combating drought and desertification and promoting efforts to mitigate the effects of drought. It was later revitalized in 1996, expanded its mandate, and renamed Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD). IGAD has various divisions and specialized institutions working to address the challenges in the region. The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) is one of the specialized institutions within IGAD mandated to provide climate services and applications, including disaster risk management.

The IGAD region has been facing recurrent disasters resulting from natural and human-made hazards that, sometimes, result in disasters due to high vulnerability and low coping capacity to risk drivers and multipliers such as climate change. Among the major hazards that evolve into disasters are droughts, floods, landslides, epidemics, and pandemics. Human-made hazards include industrial and transportation accidents, environmental pollution, crop and livestock pests, and earthquakes. These hazards have caused disasters of varying magnitudes in the past.

Disasters are a major setback to the development of the IGAD region, causing immense damage to infrastructure and the environment, leaving communities impoverished, and diverting crucial resources away from long-term development projects. The devastating effects of these disasters can wipe out years of progress and render the enormous investments made in the region futile.

Disasters displace millions of people annually in the IGAD region, perpetuating the cycle of poverty as displaced people lose their assets, homes, and livelihoods and cannot recover before the next disaster. Disasters also put additional strain on the limited resources of national governments. Climate change and environmental degradation contribute to the increase in frequency and intensity of hydro-meteorological hazards and identify the potential risks, including disaster displacement.

It is, therefore, necessary to monitor and forecast key climatic, environmental, and socio-economic parameters to predict the risks and thus support IGAD Member States in addressing these root causes of migration and disaster displacement.

ICPAC, in collaboration with partners such as AUC and UNDRR, established the IGAD Disaster operations center (IDOC) for multi-hazard early warnings in 2021. One of the two main web-based platforms for visualizing the different systems and products at ICPAC is the East Africa Hazards Watch, which includes East Africa Drought Watch and Agriculture Watch. The aim is to support relevant actors by providing hazard information to anticipate and act early to reduce the impacts of disasters on the lives and livelihoods of the people in the region. It is envisaged that early warning on the risk of displacement will be issued as an integral part of advisories in the coming years.

ICPAC has partnered with stakeholders to address the nexus between climate variability, climate change, disasters, and human Mobility. The Multi-Partner Trust Fund (MPTF) joint program aims to facilitate pathways for regular migration and minimize regional displacement risk. ICPAC and a platform on disaster displacement(PDD) mainly focus on PILLAR I: DATA AND KNOWLEDGE and developed flood and cyclone displacement risk profiles and decision-making models.

Similarly, as part of the collaboration between IGAD and GIZ Global Program Human Mobility in the Context of Climate Change, an activity entitled "Development of a Modelling Technique for Human Mobility in the Context of Climate Change and Capacity Development in the IGAD Region" was initiated in August 2021. under this project, a methodology was developed for modelling displacements pattern related to climate and environmental changes, particularly slow-onset events such as drought. The project also aims to strengthen ICPAC's capacities to analyze and model shifting patterns of displacement and project risk of displacement due to slow-onset environmental changes and events such as drought.

Although different agencies have undertaken several initiatives to develop displacement models and enhance the accuracy of the data used in such models within the IGAD region, a pressing need remains for further development and improvement. This also requires increased collaboration and coordination among stakeholders to ensure the models are as effective as possible.

Moreover, to sustain these efforts, there is a need to draw a way forward for these modelling activities proposing concrete steps to increase their scope and to translate the findings into tools for policymakers.

With this background, ICPAC wishes to contract a consultant of high caliber to produce a scoping paper on this subject matter. This scoping paper will assess the current status of displacement models in the IGAD region, identify gaps and areas for improvement, and develop policy recommendations to strengthen displacement modelling in addition supporting the implementation and conception of a workshop tailored for experts and policy detailing the modelling and its use as a tool for policy-making.

The consultancy is advertised under IGAD DRM with the partnership of GIZ Global Program, titled "Human Mobility in the Context of Climate Change." In 2020, the GP HMCCC started a collaboration with IGAD, including the IGAD Migration Programme under the Health and Social Development Division (HSD) and the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), with a specific focus on human Mobility induced by climate change-related, slow-onset events and changes, focusing primarily on droughts and water availability. Furthermore, IGAD and GP HMCCC started working together in August 2021 on a project called "Development of a Modelling Technique for Human Mobility in the Context of Climate Change and Capacity Development in the IGAD Region. The program's principal goal is to improve applied knowledge of sustainable human mobility management in the context of climate change in the partner region and German international cooperation.

2. The objective of the consultancy:

The overall aim of this consultancy work is to conduct a comprehensive review of existing displacement models, initiatives and identify key challenges in disaster displacement to create a bankable project to address adverse drivers of disaster displacement and minimizes risks of displacement

The overall objective of this consultancy work is to enhance the accuracy, reliability, and timeliness of displacement models on the one hand and come up with a bankable project by conducting a comprehensive review of existing initiatives and future development needs.

2.1 Specific Objectives:

• To assess the status of displacement models used in the IGAD region and identify gaps and areas for improvement (how they can meaningfully help reduce the risk of displacement).
• To identify potential data sources and methodologies for improving the accuracy and effectiveness of displacement models in the IGAD region and develop recommendations for policymakers and stakeholders on how to improve the effectiveness of displacement models in the IGAD region.
• Produce a regional proposal as a bankable project to address the adverse drivers of disaster displacement and reduce the risk of displacement by IGAD, member states, and partners such as GIZ.
• Under the guidance of ICPAC and the project partners, organize a regional workshop bringing together all the lessons from the modelling activities and showcasing the use of displacement models as a tool for policy making in the IGAD region.

3. Results and Deliverables

The anticipated outputs included the following:

• Inception report.
• A detailed work plan for the review process and bankable project.
• A final comprehensive report on the existing initiatives for displacement models in the IGAD region, detailing the strengths and weaknesses major initiatives and identifying the gaps that need to be addressed.
• Develop a PowerPoint presentation of the Report.
• Conceive the agenda and concept note, as well as any other relevant documents and facilitate a Key Learning and Way Forward Workshop tailored for Member States' representatives and policymakers, showcasing and popularizing the modelling and advocating the use of displacement models for policy-making in the IGAD region.

4. Tasks and responsibilities

The consultancy is expected to enhance the accuracy, reliability, and timeliness of displacement data and models in the IGAD region by conducting a comprehensive review of existing initiatives and providing recommendations for future development; specifically, the consultancy will undertake the following actions:

• Review existing capacity for hotspot areas impacted by disasters, including floods and droughts, and expand disaster displacement rates in IGAD member states at the national and sub-national levels. This will include an analysis of pre-crisis, during-crisis, and post-crisis intervention needs and identifying gaps and areas for improvement.
• Conduct a comprehensive literature review of existing displacement models and data sources used in the IGAD region, including academic research, policy documents, and reports from humanitarian and development organizations.
• Assess the strengths and weaknesses of existing displacement models and identify gaps and areas for improvement using a rigorous analytical approach.
• Identify potential data sources and methodologies for improving the accuracy and effectiveness of displacement models in the IGAD region, drawing on best practices and innovations from around the world.
• Develop policy recommendations for improving the effectiveness of displacement models in the IGAD region, considering existing initiatives such as the disaster risk profiles and decision-making models for rapid onset disasters displacement and the other Developed slow-onset Modelling Techniques for Human Mobility in the Context of Climate Change and Capacity Development in the IGAD Region.
• Develop a comprehensive monitoring and evaluation framework to track progress and measure the impact of our recommendations over time.
• Work closely with the IGAD Disaster Risk Management team and other relevant units to ensure that recommendations are well-aligned with broader efforts to support resilience and disaster risk reduction in the IGAD region.
• Produce a regional proposal as a bankable project to address the adverse drivers of disaster displacement and reduce the risk of displacement in the IGAD region in collaboration with member states and partners such as GIZ. This will involve identifying priority areas for intervention, designing appropriate interventions, developing a budget and work plan, and identifying potential funding sources. The proposal should be aligned with broader regional and international frameworks for disaster risk reduction.
• Support the dissemination of findings and recommendations widely, including through presentation at relevant conferences and events, to ensure that the analysis has maximum impact and informs policy and practice around displacement management and humanitarian response in the IGAD region.
• Utilize the produced content including the policy recommendations to conceive and implement a key Learning and Way Forward Workshop.

5. Minimum Qualifications and Experience:

• A master's degree or Ph.D. in international development, social sciences, statistics, or other relevant fields.
• At least five years of experience working on displacement-related issues, focusing on modelling, data analysis, and policy development.
• Demonstrated experience in conducting research and developing policy recommendations.
• Experience working in the IGAD region, with a strong understanding of the context, challenges, and opportunities related to displacement.
• Excellent written and verbal communication skills, with a demonstrated ability to present complex information in a clear and accessible manner.

The final Report will be submitted within 60 days of the commencement of the consultancy. The consultant will work closely with ICPAC and other stakeholders, including the GIZ Global Project on Human Mobility in the Context of Climate Change, to ensure the scoping paper is informed by their perspectives and experiences. The workshop date and venue will be set up in collaboration with ICPAC, and all the key documents for the workshop must be submitted promptly before its implementation.

6. Language:

Proficiency in written and oral communication skills in English. All reports will be submitted in English.

7. How to Apply

Interested candidates are encouraged to apply via email (Hard copies will not be accepted) with the subject line "Application for short-term consultancy" Enhancing Displacement Models in the IGAD Region: A Review of Existing Initiatives and Future Development Recommendations – DOC 01/2023". Applications should be received by the close of business on June 20th, 2023. Include an expression of interest, curriculum vitae, stating relevant achievements and illustrating capacity to undertake the work to the following Address: recruitments@icpac.net cc procurement@icpac.net

Female Candidates are highly encouraged to apply for this position.