Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
23 - 30 July 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over central to eastern South Sudan, central to western Ethiopia, parts of south-western and eastern Sudan, northern Uganda, and central and north-western Kenya.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over southern and parts of eastern Sudan, north-western South Sudan, eastern Ethiopia, parts of western Eritrea, Djibouti, central Uganda, and parts of western Kenya.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over cross-border regions of eastern South Sudan and south-western Ethiopia.
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record) is expected over parts of eastern South Sudan, south-western and south-eastern Sudan, central and western Ethiopia, and western Eritrea.
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in western Sudan, eastern South Sudan, and pockets in central Ethiopia.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (> 32℃) expected over parts of northern Sudan, north-eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, coastal regions of north-western Somalia, and central to southern Eritrea.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, South Sudan, eastern Ethiopia, western and eastern Tanzania, and southern Sudan.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over central parts of Ethiopia, Kenya and Tanzania, southern Uganda, and most parts of Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in parts of northern Sudan, the Red Sea coast and Afar region in Ethiopia.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) expected over parts of central and northern Ethiopia, and south-western Sudan.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of South Sudan, central and western Ethiopia, northern Uganda, western Kenya, southern Sudan and western Eritrea.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over Djibouti, central to northern Sudan, eastern Ethiopia, central parts of Uganda, north-western Kenya, and coastal regions of Somalia, Kenya and Tanzania.
Weekly Forecasts
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Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over cross-border regions of eastern South Sudan and south-western Ethiopia.
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) expected over parts of central and northern Ethiopia, and south-western Sudan.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of South Sudan, central and western Ethiopia, northern Uganda, western Kenya, …
Heavy rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record) is expected over parts of eastern South Sudan, south-western and south-eastern Sudan, central and western Ethiopia, and western Eritrea.
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over central to eastern South Sudan, central to western Ethiopia, parts of south-western and eastern Sudan, northern Uganda, and central and north-western Kenya.
- Less than usual rainfall expected …
Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in parts of northern Sudan, the Red Sea coast and Afar region in Ethiopia.
Rainfall forecast
- Light rainfall expected over a few parts of northwestern and southern Somalia.