Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
05 August 2026 - 12 August 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall Anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over western to northern parts of Ethiopia, northern Uganda, central Kenya, isolated parts of south-western Sudan, and several parts of South Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over southern regions of Sudan, central to western parts of South Sudan, western Eritrea, central to south-western Uganda and western regions of Kenya.
Exceptional Rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over parts of western to eastern Sudan, western to northern parts of Ethiopia, western parts of Eritrea, and isolated areas in both north-eastern and south-western South Sudan.
Floods Update
- Flooding incidences expected over some parts of western to eastern Sudan, western to northern parts of Ethiopia, with pocket areas in north-eastern and south-western South Sudan.
- Communities in high-risk areas are advised to exercise caution during this period.
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over a few isolated regions across the GHA.
Temperature
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32°C expected over Djibouti, northern parts of Sudan, coastal parts of Eritrea, northern coastal regions of Somalia, and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32°C) expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20°C) expected over central to western regions of Kenya, central to southern Tanzania and central to northern parts of Ethiopia and western regions of both Rwanda and Uganda.
Heat stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, central to northern Somalia and north-eastern regions of Ethiopia.
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Danger’ category expected over parts of the Afar region in Ethiopia extending into parts of central Eritrea, isolated areas along the coastline of Eritrea and a few pockets over northern Sudan.
Total Rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (greater than 200 mm) expected over parts of central to western Ethiopia and isolated areas over south-western Sudan.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200 mm) expected over southern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan, northern Uganda, western regions of Kenya, western Eritrea and central to northern parts of Ethiopia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over eastern and southern Tanzania, western and coastal parts of Kenya, southern and northern coastal parts of Somalia, central regions of Sudan, and some parts of eastern Ethiopia.
Weekly Forecasts
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Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over a few isolated regions across the GHA.
Rainfall forecast
Total Rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (greater than 200 mm) expected over parts of central to western Ethiopia and isolated areas over south-western Sudan.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200 mm) expected over southern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan, …
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall Anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over western to northern parts of Ethiopia, northern Uganda, central Kenya, isolated parts of south-western Sudan, and several parts of South Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over …
Heavy rainfall
Exceptional Rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over parts of western to eastern Sudan, western to northern parts of Ethiopia, western parts of Eritrea, and isolated areas in both north-eastern and south-western South Sudan.
Heat Stress
Heat stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, central to northern Somalia and north-eastern regions of Ethiopia.
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Danger’ …
Rainfall forecast
- Light rainfall expected over a few places in both southern and northern Somalia.