Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
12 - 19 August 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over central to western Kenya, Uganda, central, western, and northern parts of Ethiopia, eastern South Sudan, several parts of Eritrea, the Darfur area of Sudan, several parts of Rwanda, and southern Tanzania.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over a few areas in eastern, southern, and central Sudan, the Ethiopian highlands, and western South Sudan.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over northern Sudan, western South Sudan, and most parts of Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia, Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over the southern regions of Sudan, eastern South Sudan, and pocket areas in Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record)expected over central to western Kenya, north-eastern Uganda, central to eastern South Sudan, most parts of southern Sudan, south-western to northern Ethiopia, and western Uganda.
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in northern and north-eastern Ethiopia, central-eastern and south-western Sudan, central parts of South Sudan, and western Eritrea.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (> 32℃) are expected in northern Sudan, the Red Sea coastal regions, north-eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, and north-western Somalia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) are expected over Somalia, eastern and south-eastern Ethiopia, Eritrea, southern Sudan, South Sudan, central to northern Uganda, eastern and northern Kenya, and western and eastern Tanzania.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) are expected over Rwanda, Burundi, southern Uganda, and the Rift Valley region of Tanzania, Kenya, and Ethiopia.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in northern Sudan, parts of the Red Sea coast, Afar region in Ethiopia, and coastal parts of Somalia.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) expected over isolated areas in central and northern parts of Ethiopia, isolated parts in central South Sudan, isolated areas in western Kenya, the Darfur region in Sudan, and isolated areas of western Eritrea.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in central to southern Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, central to western Kenya, central to western Ethiopia, and western Eritrea.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over central to northern Sudan, central to south-eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, northern and southern Somalia, Rwanda, Burundi, isolated areas in south-eastern South Sudan, and several areas in southern and northern Tanzania.
Weekly Forecasts
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Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over northern Sudan, western South Sudan, and most parts of Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia, Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over the southern regions …
Heavy rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record) expected over central to western Kenya, northeastern Uganda, eastern South Sudan, most parts of central Sudan, northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Djibouti.
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over central to western Kenya, Uganda, central, western, and northern parts of Ethiopia, eastern South Sudan, several parts of Eritrea, the Darfur area of Sudan, several parts of …
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over central to western Kenya, Uganda, northern and south-western parts of Ethiopia, eastern South Sudan, Eritrea, and western and eastern Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over southern …
Heavy rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record)expected over central to western Kenya, north-eastern Uganda, central to eastern South Sudan, most parts of southern Sudan, south-western to northern Ethiopia, and western Uganda.
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over northern Sudan, western South Sudan, and most parts of Ethiopia, Somalia, Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over the central to eastern …