Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
21 - 28 May 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, South Sudan, western Ethiopia and parts of southern Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Uganda, Somalia, south-eastern Ethiopia and western and eastern Kenya.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA, with parts of northern and eastern Sudan, north-eastern Ethiopia, and most parts of Djibouti, and Eritrea recording anomalies greater than 2.5 Degrees Celsius.
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record)over a few areas in western Ethiopia, and isolated areas in eastern and western South Sudan.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (> 32℃) expected in most parts of Sudan, western Eritrea, north-eastern Ethiopia and Djibouti.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts South Sudan, Uganda, northern and eastern Kenya, Somalia, central Eritrea, and eastern Ethiopia.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over Rwanda, Burundi, parts of central and south-western Tanzania, central to western Kenya, south-western Uganda and the Ethiopian highlands.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, Afar region in Ethiopia, and eastern Kenya.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (greater than 200mm) expected over parts of western Ethiopia.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of South Sudan, western Ethiopia, central and western Kenya, parts of southern Sudan and northern Uganda.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of Uganda, eastern and northern Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, central to western Kenya, southern Sudan and central to southern Somalia.
Weekly Forecasts
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Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, Afar region in Ethiopia, and eastern Kenya.
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (greater than 200mm) expected over parts of western Ethiopia.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of South Sudan, western Ethiopia, central and western Kenya, parts of southern Sudan and northern …
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, South Sudan, western Ethiopia and parts of southern Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Uganda, Somalia, south-eastern Ethiopia …
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA, with parts of northern and eastern Sudan, north-eastern Ethiopia, and most parts of Djibouti, and Eritrea recording anomalies greater than 2.5 Degrees …
Heavy rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record)over a few areas in western Ethiopia, and isolated areas in eastern and western South Sudan.
Rainfall forecast
- Light rainfall expected over most parts of the country, while moderate rainfall expected over isolated areas in southern parts of the region.