Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
10 - 17 June 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over central to western South Sudan, western parts of Ethiopia, and parts of southern Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Uganda and parts of eastern and southern South Sudan, and central Ethiopia.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record)expected over few areas in western Ethiopia and South Sudan.
- There is a likelihood of flash flood incidents over north-western and central parts of South Sudan, and few pockets in western Ethiopia.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (> 32℃) expected in parts of eastern Sudan, Afar region in Ethiopia, Djibouti, north-western Somalia, and coastal and western regions of Eritrea.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts South Sudan, western parts of Sudan, central to northern Uganda, western and eastern Tanzania, eastern and northern Kenya, eastern Ethiopia, and most parts of Somalia.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over Rwanda, Burundi, southern Uganda, central to southern Tanzania, central to western Kenya, and central to southern Ethiopia.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in parts of southeastern Sudan, Afar region in Ethiopia, parts of north-western coast of Somalia, and most parts of Djibouti and Eritrea.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall ( greater than 200mm) expected in parts of north-western South Sudan.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of South Sudan, southern areas of Sudan, and western parts of both Kenya and Ethiopia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of Uganda, eastern Tanzania, coastal and western Kenya, southern and northern Somalia, and southern regions of Sudan.
Weekly Forecasts
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Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
Rainfall forecast
- Light to moderate rainfall is expected over southern and northern regions.
Heavy rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record)expected over few areas in western Ethiopia and South Sudan.
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over central to western South Sudan, western parts of Ethiopia, and parts of southern Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Uganda and parts of …
Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in parts of southeastern Sudan, Afar region in Ethiopia, parts of north-western coast of Somalia, and most parts of Djibouti and Eritrea.
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall ( greater than 200mm) expected in parts of north-western South Sudan.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of South Sudan, southern areas of Sudan, and western parts of both Kenya …