01 - 08 October 2024
Rainfall
Temperature
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall amounts exceeding the top 10% on record expected over northern Somalia, north-eastern and south-western parts of Ethiopia.
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over parts of southern Sudan, western and north-eastern Ethiopia, northern Somalia and most parts of Eritrea and Djibouti.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over most parts of South Sudan, Uganda, southern Ethiopia, and central to southern Somalia.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (above 32℃) expected over central to eastern parts of Sudan and north-eastern Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Djibouti, Eritrea, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, Somalia, and eastern and northern Kenya.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of northern to southern Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, western Rwanda, and southern parts of Tanzania.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in Afar region in Ethiopia and neighboring regions in Eritrea, and relatively high levels in most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea and Djibouti.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over northern Somalia, western and north-eastern Ethiopia, south-western Sudan, north-western South Sudan, south-western Uganda and parts of central and western Kenya.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over Burundi, eastern Rwanda, north-western and southern Tanzania, central to northern Uganda, western and coastal Kenya, central to eastern South Sudan, Djibouti, Eritrea and parts of central to southern Sudan.
