03 - 10 September 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over southern regions of Sudan, western parts of South Sudan, northern Uganda, western Kenya and central to western Ethiopia.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over a few regions in eastern South Sudan and southern Uganda.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record) expected over south-western Sudan, north-western regions of South Sudan, and western Ethiopia.
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in central and western Ethiopia, pockets in central and south-western Sudan, and north-western parts of South Sudan
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (>32℃) expected in central to northern Sudan, Afar region in Ethiopia, and coastal regions along the Red Sea.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of South Sudan, Uganda, Somalia, southeastern Ethiopia, eastern and northern Kenya, and eastern and western regions of Tanzania.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over central Ethiopia, central to south-western Kenya and parts of central Tanzania.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in most parts of Sudan, northern regions of South Sudan, Afar region in Ethiopia, Djibouti and coastal regions of Eritrea and northern Somalia.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) expected over parts of western regions of both Ethiopia and South Sudan.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of central to northern Uganda, central to western South Sudan, southern regions of Sudan, western Ethiopia and western Kenya.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in parts of central Sudan, western Eritrea, south-eastern parts of South Sudan, southern Uganda, and coastal regions of Somalia, Kenya and Tanzania.
