08 - 15 September 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- More than usual rainfall expected over central to southern regions of Sudan, northwestern South Sudan, western to northern parts of Ethiopia, northern Somalia, isolated parts of western Eritrea and isolated parts of southern Somalia.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over central parts of Ethiopia, central to western regions of Kenya and most parts of both South Sudan and Uganda.
Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over isolated areas of the following parts; southern Sudan, northwestern South Sudan, western to northern Ethiopia and in northern parts of Somalia.
- Flooding incidences expected over some parts of south-western Sudan and isolated areas in north-western Ethiopia, and northern Somalia.
- Communities in high-risk areas are advised to exercise caution during this period.
Temperature Anomaly
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over a few isolated regions across the GHA.
Mean Temperature
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32°C expected over Djibouti, central to northern parts of Sudan, coastal parts of Eritrea, northern coastal regions of Somalia, and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32°C) expected over most parts of the region.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20°C) expected over central to western regions of Kenya, central to southern Tanzania and central to northern parts of Ethiopia and western regions of both Rwanda and Burundi.
Total Rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (greater than 200 mm) expected over isolated parts of western Ethiopia.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200 mm) expected over southwestern parts of Sudan, parts of western South Sudan, isolated areas in both northern and southern parts of Somalia, isolated areas in western to northern Uganda, and western to northern parts of Ethiopia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of Somalia, most parts of Uganda, central to western regions and coastal parts of Kenya, eastern and southern Tanzania, central regions of Sudan, eastern parts of South Sudan, and some parts of eastern to southern Ethiopia.
Heat Stress
Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, some parts of Eastern Kenya and north-eastern regions of Ethiopia. Elevated heat stress within the ‘Danger’ category expected over parts of the Afar region in Ethiopia extending into parts of central Eritrea, isolated areas along the coastline of Eritrea and a few pockets across the border of northern Eritrea and Sudan.
